Bob's MLB Saturday *** 7.16.16 ***

Question

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MLB 2016
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Summary
Record: 178-136-18 (57%)
Beginning Bankroll: $9,391
Avg. Wager Size: $114 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll)
Profit: +$3,607.49 (+38.41 Units), +9.55% Return on Risk

Splits
ML: 100-76 (57%)
F5: 3-4-2 (43%)
RL: 19-14-3 (58%)
O/U: 56-42-13 (57%)

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Performance History
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Overall
2016: 178-136-18 (57%), +9.55% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk

Picks of the Day
2016: 53-38-7 (58%), +12.48% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk

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Friday
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3-1-1, +$264.48

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Saturday
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Los Angeles/Arizona Over 9 FG, McCarthy/Bradley

More to follow.

BirdsOnBat · Answer

-----------------------------------------------------------
MLB 2016
-----------------------------------------------------------

Summary
Record: 178-136-18 (57%)
Beginning Bankroll: $9,391
Avg. Wager Size: $114 (Unit = 1% of Bankroll)
Profit: +$3,607.49 (+38.41 Units), +9.55% Return on Risk

Splits
ML: 100-76 (57%)
F5: 3-4-2 (43%)
RL: 19-14-3 (58%)
O/U: 56-42-13 (57%)

-----------------------------------------------------------
Performance History
-----------------------------------------------------------

Overall
2016: 178-136-18 (57%), +9.55% Return on Risk
2015: 298-267-32 (53%), +6.46% Return on Risk
2014: 826-685-112 (55%), +4.13% Return on Risk

Picks of the Day
2016: 53-38-7 (58%), +12.48% Return on Risk
2015: 108-87-12 (55%), +14.17% Return on Risk
2014: 121-72-16 (63%), +16.60% Return on Risk

-----------------------------------------------------------
Friday
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3-1-1, +$264.48

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Saturday
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Los Angeles/Arizona Over 9 FG, McCarthy/Bradley

More to follow.

ff99l1 · Answer

Nice job last night, gl ff.

smurph_daddy · Answer

1 unit is up to $130 now?

BirdsOnBat · Answer

Yes. I float with 1% of bankroll and adjust in $5 increments. Right now, wagers are just north of 1% of bankroll.

smurph_daddy · Answer

im getting a total for last night of $199.48

Baltimore Orioles FG +128, Gallardo/Archer: Bet $130 to win 166.40 W

Detroit Tigers FG -144, Kennedy/Verlander: Bet $130 to win 90.28 W
Toronto Blue Jays FG -133, Stroman/Mengden: Bet $195 to win 146.62 L
Boston Red Sox FG +106, Wright/Pineda: Bet $130 to win 137.80 W
Milwaukee/Cincinnati Over 9 FG -115, Garza/Descalfani: Bet $130 to win 113.04 P

166.4+90.28+ (-195) + 137.80 + 0 = 119.48

Am I missing something? Not trying to call you out or anything. I just want to make sure Im tracking correctly on my end for when I tail.

mbiddy · Answer

GL today BoB

kimoinsd808 · Answer

The auditors here are johnny-on-the-spot to point out accounting mistakes.  I wish they were just as quick to offer input on games.

BirdsOnBat · Answer

Does $195 = $130?All wagers are flat % of bankroll. Always have been. Always will be.

smurph_daddy · Answer

Oh I thought POD was 1.5 Units. I am an auditor. Not a handicapper. Wish I could offer more insight. Thanks for the picks (and the clarification) as always

Mailmaaan · Answer

good luck

BirdsOnBat · Answer

I see what you did. I stopped sizing PODs at 1.50% about 6 weeks ago. All bets are the same size. I just highlight them for tracking purposes.

Before you go any further, also run the math in previous examples to see that it's not 1% conveniently when I lose a wager. Orioles RL (6/28) was POD at +100 and you will see that it was sized the same as the other picks.

6/28
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102291892

6/29
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102292182

I keep very detailed records and do my best to keep everything as accurate as possible in my threads. No games in here bud

undermysac · Answer

GL  Birds

BirdsOnBat · Answer

Just realized I didn&#x27;t include the line on the first pick... -110

BirdsOnBat · Answer

I continually modify my approach. I&#x27;ve become more selective over the last few years (e.g., look at the number of plays in 2014 vs 2016). I used to wager on around 10 games per day, but I have dialed that back a bit. Since May (of this year), I increased my "hurdle" rate (i.e., target Return on Risk) from 3% to 5%, which lowered the number of playable games. My POD "RoR Hurdle" is unchanged at 10%.It&#x27;s possible I could revert back at some point - or even increase the variance in wager size - but I am going to stick with flat for the time being.

BirdsOnBat · Answer

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Saturday *** Updated ***
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Los Angeles/Arizona Over 9 FG -110, McCarthy/Bradley

Cleveland Indians FG -130, Bauer/Duffey

Milwaukee Brewers FG -105, Nelson/Lamb

Chicago White Sox FG +141, Shields/Shoemaker

Still watching a few lines. probably not final. Good luck to anyone playing the early game.

MrECapps · Answer

You are absolutely correct in using a fixed % of bankroll for each play.  You end up getting a fractional Kelly, which is important as compounding is your real friend over the long run.

Reese518 · Answer

Thanks Bob. GL All!

KeyElement · Answer

(this post was at least easy to read,lol)

BirdsOnBat · Answer

What can I say, Key? I am a bit OCD

ff99l1 · Answer

Agree with your Cleveland play. gl ff.

bssports · Answer

Like that Over! Anything else today?

JK4507 · Answer

BOB-It&#x27;s awesome to get more insight on how you manage your bankroll.  Thank you (as always) for capping and posting your value plays.  A few of us out here, tail some or tail all of your plays and we are grateful for your time.   Thanks bro!!

BirdsOnBat · Answer

Sometimes during the weekends - when my kids are taking their early afternoon naps - I have some *gasp* free time to review my performance. Capping the current card always takes precedence, but I had a few today and thought I'd share.

One of the things I constantly look for are patterns with my strengths and weaknesses. Am I better at capping runs than I am sides? Are there teams I am doing a poor job or good job capping? Is it a certain division? You get the point.

Minimum 5 wagers placed to qualify.

ML/RL Wagers --- Top 5 Teams

Baltimore: 10-1, +87% Return on Risk
Chicago (AL): 7-2, +52% Return on Risk
Texas: 19-10, +42% Return on Risk
St. Louis: 8-4, +38% Return on Risk
Boston: 11-7, +29% Return on Risk

These 5 teams make up ~36% of my side wagers year to date. Discussion topic for another day, but I have 5 teams I follow very closely and read their local newspapers to "source" additional information that is often overlooked. In the process of following these teams, I learn a lot about them and the teams they play (that don't show up in the box score). It's been key to my success, IMO.

ML/RL Wagers --- Worst 5 Teams

Los Angeles (AL): 1-5, -72% Return on Risk
New York (NL): 3-6, -32% Return on Risk
Kansas City: 2-3, -28% Return on Risk
Pittsburgh: 3-4, -25% Return on Risk
Toronto: 3-4, -20% Return on Risk

ML/RL Wagers --- Top 5 (opposing team)

St. Louis: 8-3 (73%)
Pittsburgh: 7-3 (70%)
Milwaukee: 6-3 (67%)
New York (AL): 10-5 (67%)
Cincinnati: 4-2 (67%)

ML/RL Wagers --- Worst 3 (opposing team)

Chicago (NL): 0-5-1 (0%)
Oakland: 3-5 (38%)
Baltimore: 4-6 (40%)

It should come as no surprise that I have had success better (for or against) the Cardinals. I watch a TON of their games. I've placed a side wager on 23 of their games (~25% of all games) and have gone 16-7 in those games. Anyway, just thought Id share.

Bob's MLB Saturday * 7.16.16 *

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