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Bob's MLB Tuesday *** 6.28.16 ***

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Legend
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Posted: #26

 

These are my late June BUY and SELL rankings for home fields after approximately 75 games. The history of these ratings is very strong, leading to the conclusion that following them should provide you with profit.


J.Gavazzi

 
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Posted: #27
BOL Tonight BOB
 
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Posted: #28
good luck tonight. Just curious, if the RED plays are your play of the day each night, then how were you up last night like that? even if you did them for 200 each, would think youd be up 70 or 80 max. Not questioning, just trying to play smarter w my own money and gauge off what you and a few others do with management of that. Tx
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by coldbrew1130:



O's road record is the reason why I'm staying away from this game as well 


It's not a compelling argument unless you adjust for the strength of the road opponent, and they've had some tough road series' to work through (e.g., 4 @ Texas and 3 @ KC).
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:

SELL teams:

Texas Rangers
The Rangers lead the MLB in one run games at 17-4. That’s a major reason
in and of itself that there will be an adjustment. They enter their
game on Friday on a recent 15-3 surge; yet another reason to expect an
adjustment. With the #11 batting rank and #17 pitching rank, their
combined OPS is just 1.014, 13th best in MLB. But as a whopping 11
positions worse than the #2 record in baseball at 46-26, the above
factors are a clear SELL sign for the Rangers.

 

San Francisco Giants
The Giants are obviously the hottest team in MLB betting,
as after Thursday’s 5-3 win vs the Pirates their recent surge is now
30-9, including 11-1 recently in which they’ve averaged nearly 6 RPG.
Atop of the rotation with three great starters makes them tough to play
against, but the batting is just 17th in MLB for the course
of the season, and their overall rank is #10, 7 positions higher than
their #3 ranking. It is an even numbered year, so San Francisco may well
go on to capture the World Series, but for right now they are a
definite fade, as a short term adjustment is about to happen.

RLeith35, just as a comparison, are the NY Yankees on your Sell list? With what pitching/batting rank?
 
Captain
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Posted: #31
I can't help but giggle at these buy and sell lists... how can you determine whether something is a buy or sell without a price tag?

The Cubs would be a sell at -400 tonight against the Reds... and any team - regardless of pitching matchups (one caveat is that both pitchers are MLB!) - would be a buy at +1000 on any day.
 
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Posted: #32
why is this RLeith guy cluttering up BoB's thread with all this useless crap?  
 
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Posted: #33
On Rangers as well BOL
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by RAID187:

why is this RLeith guy cluttering up BoB's thread with all this useless crap?  

I wouldn't say it's useless... Rleith is a stats guy and I'm sure he bets accordingly through the trends and stats of each league. What (I think) he's basically implying is that these teams who are the "sell" teams have too good of a record for what their trends and stats are implying which means that they are due soon.
I don't exactly agree because trends can be misleading when coming to betting because you should also be betting with knowledge of the teams you bet. Either way I'm on both Balt and the RL so let's get it 
 
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Posted: #35
GL BoB 
 
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Posted: #36
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by mikebreezyy:


I wouldn't say it's useless... Rleith is a stats guy and I'm sure he bets accordingly through the trends and stats of each league. What (I think) he's basically implying is that these teams who are the "sell" teams have too good of a record for what their trends and stats are implying which means that they are due soon.
I don't exactly agree because trends can be misleading when coming to betting because you should also be betting with knowledge of the teams you bet. Either way I'm on both Balt and the RL so let's get it 

well that's all fine and dandy if it works for him.  why is it in here and not his own thread then?  pretty sure other people, like me come into BoB's thread to look for HIS daily plays and not someone elses buy and sell list...
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by mikebreezyy:


What (I think) he's basically implying is that these teams who are the "sell" teams have too good of a record for what their trends and stats are implying which means that they are due soon.



Which still has absolutely nothing to do with the value of a line.

It is, in fact, completely useless without equating that back to the probability of a win vs the probability implied by the line.

Trends mean nothing absent pricing (i.e., the market lines).
 
Legend
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Posted: #39
That buy & sell was for those teams at Home only! When they are playng at home. Read the entire post!










'""
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by RLeith35:

That buy & sell was for those teams at Home only! When they are playng at home. Read the entire post!










'""


But, you can't make any inference about whether a team is "sell" or "buy" without considering the price (line). This is pretty simple.
 
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Posted: #41
I believe he's trying to uncover those teams that are on average either undervalued or overvalued by the books, irrespective of all other factors
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Julespussy:

I believe he's trying to uncover those teams that are on average either undervalued or overvalued by the books, irrespective of all other factors


But you can't determine value without comparing (i) the probability of the team winning and (ii) the probability of winning implied by the line.

For example:

I capped the Rangers' win probability at just north of 58% today, which equates to a line of -140. The line was -113, which implies a win probability of 53% (1.13/2.13).

There was 5% points of win probability value for the Rangers today.

Showing trends without prices uncovers 0.
 
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Posted: #43
Nothing cute w these picks..just solid winners 
 
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Posted: #44
First of all, thanks for the effort you put out each day B.O.B, and nice results today.

Alan Woods did  a similar thing with horses.....he weighted the different components of what goes into betting a horse race, i.e., the jockey, the starting position, the track conditions, past results and came up with his own odds for each horse in the race.  Then he compared the odds given by the track with his own and bet when he had favorable odds.

For example if he had a horse at 6/1 to win and the track odds were 10/1 he bet the horse.  He and another gambler computerized their work and their odds were more accurate than the track odds or what the public thought were accurate odds.

He ended up with a net worth of over 600 million. 

Only 599+ million to go BOB!

https://www.themonthly.com.au/monthly-essays-tony-wilson-mr-huge-alan-woods-and-his-amazing-computer-nags-riches-story-149


 
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Posted: #45
going to hit the sack here... but I locked in two plays for tomorrow. Will create a new thread later.

Baltimore Orioles -1.5 RL +115, Gallardo/Friedrich

Houston Astros -1.5 RL +110, Keuchel/Weaver
 
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Posted: #46
BOB, I have a BUY signal on your handicapped picks for +5 dimes and its has been due to pay us all in the last 2 months.   Thank you for your solid picks.   We all got paid listening to BOB, 
 
 
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Posted: #47
Thanks as always for sharing BoB
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