Bob's MLB Wednesday *** 4.11.18 ***

Question

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MLB 2018
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Overall: 30-23-0 (57%), +6.83 units, +10.76% Return on Risk
ML: 16-17-0 (48%)
RL: 1-1-0 (50%)
O/U: 13-5-0 (72%)

PODs: 15-9 (63%), +18.56% Return on Risk

Monday/Tuesday: 5-3, +$244.17
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Wednesday
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Atlanta/Washington Over 8.5 -113, McCarthy/Cole (POD)

Colorado Rockies -145, Perdomo/Marquez (POD)

Toronto Blue Jays +113, Estrada/Gausman

Los Angeles Dodgers -189, Mengden/Wood

Houston Astros -1.5 RL +105, McCullers/Gibson

BirdsOnBat · Answer

-----------------------------------------------------------
MLB 2018
-----------------------------------------------------------
Overall: 30-23-0 (57%), +6.83 units, +10.76% Return on Risk
ML: 16-17-0 (48%)
RL: 1-1-0 (50%)
O/U: 13-5-0 (72%)

PODs: 15-9 (63%), +18.56% Return on Risk

Monday/Tuesday: 5-3, +$244.17
-----------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday
-----------------------------------------------------------
Atlanta/Washington Over 8.5 -113, McCarthy/Cole (POD)

Colorado Rockies -145, Perdomo/Marquez (POD)

Toronto Blue Jays +113, Estrada/Gausman

Los Angeles Dodgers -189, Mengden/Wood

Houston Astros -1.5 RL +105, McCullers/Gibson

RimboStacks · Answer

BOL Bobby

LABOOKIE · Answer

BOL

Smokee · Answer

Good luck i like that atl/wash over

lajohn · Answer

GL...

Oaktownfan · Answer

Good luck today!!!

dcgmt · Answer

GL today Birds

Dogjimbo · Answer

BOL BoB

cropduster · Answer

You&#x27;ll have to win 3 of 5 to come out ahead.

BirdsOnBat · Answer

^^^ that&#x27;s not the right way to think about it. I play games based on my view of win probability vs the win probabilities implied by the line. Everything is through the lens of repetition.

JK4507 · Answer

Tailing ATL/WAS o8.5 -120BOL BoB

KeyElement · Answer

The card is a little juicy for you BoB, but like you say, risk/reward is the deciding factor. Nothing wrong with favorites, even big ones, if the probability is there.

shakeymoomoo · Answer

That Atl/Nats over is a nice play, the only thing that scares me is it is get away day so players take more swings early. But I am jumping on it. Good luck. The White Sox are looking nice also.

bigred84 · Answer

Cole was a pinata last week against them....Horrible....no clue..

LEGITSHIP · Answer

Gl birds

bigred84 · Answer

10 earned runs  in 3  2/3rds...No lucky hits..low 50&#x27;s   might not save him......

cjm2008 · Answer

GL BOB

BirdsOnBat · Answer

The way I view it is I am wagering on games I feel hit (on a weighted average basis) 59.2% of the time with a weighted-average implied win probability of 54.9% (-126 line). The gives me an "expected" return on risk of about 7.50% over the long-run. Just clarifying how I look at lines, value, and return profile. I don&#x27;t aim for a "winning card" each day. I aim to win over 100s of picks during the course of the season. Best of luck everyone.

SBT · Answer

I look at it that way too and that&#x27;s the right way of looking at it IMO. BOL BOB!

RebelTell2 · Answer

Colorado has great numbers vs. Perdomo. But they've been playing such bad baseball, and the Pads with Galvis at SS are playing with a lot of hustle and scrap.

And it occurred to me, how is what happens in the 'short run' not a part of what happens in the 'long run'? Isn't that what the 'long run' is, a series of 'short run' events? Doesn't what happen in the short run determine long term results too? How can you divest the short run from the long run?

BOl,
RT2

Bob's MLB Wednesday * 4.11.18 *

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