Bob's MLB Wednesday *** 5.13.15 ***

MLB 2015 --- Overall
YTD: 81-74-8 (52%) *** +1.93% Return on Risk ***
ML: 53-46 (54%)
F5: 3-4-2 (43%)
RL: 6-7-4 (46%)
O/U: 19-14-2 (58%)
Parlays: 0-3-0 (0%)
Starting / Current Bankroll: $5,216 / $5,375.11 (+$159.11, +3.05%)

MLB 2015 --- Picks of the Day
YTD: 22-19-5 (54%) *** +0.79% Return on Risk ***
ML: 14-10 (58%)
F5: 0-1-1 (0%)
RL: 2-5-3 (29%)
O/U: 6-3-1 (67%)

Month (2015)
April: 53-53-5 (50%) *** -1.89 Return on Risk ***
May: 28-21-3 (57%) *** +10.31% Return on Risk ***

MLB 2014
Overall: 826-685-112 (55%) *** +4.13% Return on Risk ***
PODs: 121-72-16 (63%) *** +16.60% Return on Risk ***

Tuesday's Results
Record: 3-2-0 (60%)
Risked: 5.00% of Bankroll ($265) --- WA line of -115
Profit / Return on Risk: +$34.66 / +13.08%
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102118675

So, I went back and looked at my ML POD performance these last few weeks. I am 8-1 over my last 9 moneyline PODs. Yes sir! For comparison, I hit 75% of my ML PODs last season (55-18 record).

Wednesday's Card

I posted these in yesterday's thread. Looks like you can get a better line on the Mets game now if you're leaning that way.

959 New York Mets (M. Harvey) FG, -117 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)

962 Oakland A's (S. Gray) -1 RL, +103 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)

953 Pittsburgh (Liriano) / Philadelphia (Hamels) Under 7 FG, -125 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)

979 San Diego (Shields) / Seattle (Walker) Over 7 FG, -115 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)

955 Atlanta (Stults) / Cincinnati (Iglesias) Over 8 FG, -105 --- Risk 1.00% of Bankroll (5dimes)

*had the wrong line on this one last night (Braves/Reds over). Copy and paste error last night from the Pirates/Phillies line.

Any leans towards Arizona vs Washington? I am leaning towards Nats, I believe they'll take 2 out of 3 in this series. Gio pitching good lately and Hecklison isn't doing do well. In my opinion I think Washington wins today and Oakland loses to Red Sox. Just my opinion though. Thanks 

GL tonight BoB...

good luck buddy......I totally agree with your under in pitt/phil game and over in sd/seattle games..but I have took an oath to give o/u bets a rest for a while....

good luck as always, BOB

WSH/ARI: If I was forced to pick a side, then I would go with Washington, but I think the line (-135) is about where it should be and might even be a little bit rich at that price point. I would feel more compelled to bite on them if the line was -125. Gonzalez has been pretty shaky on the road, but the Nationals' bats have been on fire. Tough game to be honest.

BOS/OAK: my lean on this one is pretty clear, since I have the A's -1 as a POD today. Miley is very hittable and is having an awful year. Gray has been stellar, with only 1 bad start vs. KC. Boston has lost 8 of their last 11 and averaging 2.6 runs per game over that stretch. Tough to back Boston on the road against Gray. Just my 0.02 of course.

I like the A's as well. BOL Bob

Good luck BOB!

Nice turnaround. I like what you said yesterday about sticking with the plan/bankroll management. Let those winners start adding up and everything takes care of it self. BOL today

He is in good company as a lot of guys have a bad start versus the Royals.

Thanks man. I go back and look at the thread at my low point (4/24). I started out 24-19 and was +$171 (+6.99% Return on Risk). Then I went on an awful stretch, where I went 11-23 (32%). I was down nearly $400 with a record of 35-42.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=102110532

I battled through a similar stretch last season (July), so I was confident I could turn it around with 5+ months of baseball still remaining on the calendar. Bad stretches are inevitable, just as good stretches are. Just need to minimize the damage and not get carried away and think you're a wizard when you rattle off a 9-1 run. There's a reason why we stop posting runs. Once you've placed wagers over the course of a few months and hundreds of plays, the results are more statistically significant. It would take just as much talent to hit 30% of the time has it would to hit 70% (on games with similar lines/odds) over a stretch of 25 games or so. Problem is a lot of people see the prior as you stink and the latter as you're great.

I can assure everyone here this: I keep very detailed records and I regularly study my plays as well as games I leaned/didnt play. I'm honest with myself and that helps me figure out what I am good at and not so good at.

Solid card today brother BOL. Thanks for all the work and insight you provide much appreciated. The 2 cappers I respect most are you and KeyElement, would you possibly touch on his plays if you happen to have time. Seems like a sure bet when you guys agree on something.. thanks in advance

Love your threads Bob, you definitely are knowledgable in terms of managing your bank roll. BOL today

In order (of Key's plays) I like:

Padres, +115 - Great line value (if this wager were repeated over and over) for Shields who i capped at -130. Walker has been terrible. Mariners winning 4 in a row coupled with the Padres being on the road and Shields being shaky his last few (and several SEA hitters have hit him well in the past) is probably why the line is where it is right now. San Diego's bullpen scares me right now, so I decided to stay away from taking a side. I like the over best.

White Sox, +109 - I looked hard at this game. Brewers struggle vs. lefties and Quintana is far better than his stats would suggest at this point in the season. I think the Sox are a much better team than bettors given them credit for. The bats have been silent for most of the season, but I dont think that lasts. White Sox should be -115 or better, IMO. I wouldn't take them north of -110 full game.

Twins, +123 - I capped the game between +100 and +110. I can see why this play stood out, but I am not a big fan of this one. I think the line could be better, so i layed off. I have a hard time betting on bad teams on the road (against good teams) unless there is a significant edge in the pitching department.

Best of Luck Today   

Greatly appreciate your feedback BoB, I find this very beneficial.. and can't thank you enough for your work and insight thanks brother BOL

GL

A's game is looking like a loser, unfortunately. Gray did his job today, but it's hard to win games when the offense goes 0-14 with runners in scoring position. Leadoff triple. Nothing. They seemed to be pressing with runners on. Very weird.

What do u think about Balt -124 with Gonzalez over Tor, Sanchez
does not look that good vs Balt.

Shields has been Mr. Consistency this year for the Padres with only one start below MLB average per my ratings. BOL to us.

In pure quality starts, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria:

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.

This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors.