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Bob's MLB Wednesday *** 7.08.15 ***

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Posted: #26
GL today BOB 
 
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Posted: #27
GL today BoB

 
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Posted: #28
I love my cards, win or lose, but scorpion has one right. No doubt they have the best w/l records in baseball but they are struggling on offense. Baseball is a streaking sport. And usually they would last a week or two (hopefully not to long because they are my favorite home team). With that said the cubs offense havent been that good either but they are winning games, in the same fashion style as the cards in the past two months. Thats a dangerous situation for any team to play at wrigley field. Gl with your bet. I might just pick o7.5 fg. Since i hope both offense will wake up from their slump.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by trinhstl:

I love my cards, win or lose, but scorpion has one right. No doubt they have the best w/l records in baseball but they are struggling on offense. Baseball is a streaking sport. And usually they would last a week or two (hopefully not to long because they are my favorite home team). With that said the cubs offense havent been that good either but they are winning games, in the same fashion style as the cards in the past two months. Thats a dangerous situation for any team to play at wrigley field. Gl with your bet. I might just pick o7.5 fg. Since i hope both offense will wake up from their slump.


He has one right? So your contention is that Hammel is twice as good as Wacha?

Regardless, both Wacha and Hammel are good righties. The Cardinals, however, have the offensive edge vs. right handed hurlers. The Cardinals also have a slight edge, pitching wise, once the starters come out (if they do).

When I cap games I take into account more than the starting pitcher (e.g., offensive differences, bullpens, travel, recent performance, etc.) or the offense. After accounting for these variables, I arrived at a 55% win probability for the Cardinals. That said, they still have a 45% chance of losing (according to my measures) so it wouldnt be unlikely or improbable for me to lose that wager. Over the course of a season, I would make money (if my probabilities are correct) betting on disparities like this.


 
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Posted: #30

Not to quibble, just to throw a little more kerosene on the fire. Hammel is 3% better than Wacha, not "twice as good"

He is worth 23 cents more in line value, which the Cardinals almost offset with 19 cents more of offensive line value 

Then you have HFA, bullpens, weather, umpires blah, blah, blah to consider, all of them much smaller factors than the basic h2h matchups

All of which calls for a pretty good game, not of interest to me, but BOL to those that play it. Gun to my head I trust BoB about 5K X as much as Scorpio so I take BoB's lead.

  

Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
 
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Posted: #31
BOL Bud
 
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Posted: #32
Wacha run support leads the NL with 5.95 per game.STL won't get those kind of numbers against Hammel tonight.
 
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Posted: #33
Is this the same Hammel that hasn't pitched past the 5th inning in 3 of his last 5 starts?
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Wacha run support leads the NL with 5.95 per game.STL won't get those kind of numbers against Hammel tonight.


how many runs of support a pitcher receives - in terms of translating to wins and losses - is only meaningful if you adjust for how many runs the pitcher allows.

Just bc he had 5.95 runs of support does not mean he needed that many runs.

He has given up 2 or fewer runs in 11 of his 16 starts (~70%).

Besides, I never said the Cardinals would score 6 runs off Hammel. BUT, Hammel did surrender 4 runs in 4 innings against STL just a few weeks ago.
 
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Posted: #35
why is Sanchez pitching in the 7th? yikes
 
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Posted: #36
Mets under 7....
 
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Posted: #37
 
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Posted: #38
Rough day so far.... Just not for Bob!

See ya King....
 
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Posted: #39
Nice day BirdsOnBat!  I wish I had jumped on that Mets play.  I was so busy watching my stocks melt down I lost track of time.
 
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Posted: #40
Peralta!!!!
 
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Posted: #41
3-0 so far on the day, with the Halos wager pending. I need to KingScorpio to drop in and diss my card more often! 

In all seriousness, I have had some level headed exchanges with him and that's why I respond to him more often than not (i.e., I am not convinced he is solely here for trolling, regardless of how off color some of his comments may appear). I give everyone the benefit of the doubt in that regard.

gonna be well past my bedtime before the Angels game is graded (re: the rain delay). I have locked in one play for tomorrow so far:

905 Atlanta Braves (A. Wood) FG, -110 (5dimes)
 
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Posted: #42
Great night, 

wonderfull job

keep going
 
 
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Posted: #43
locked in for today... will create a new thread later

905 Atlanta Braves (A. Wood) FG, -110 (5dimes)

Los Angeles (Richards) / Seattle (Hernandez) Under 7, -115 (5dimes)
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