Picks of the Day Record YTD: 37-21-7 (64%) *** +18.34% Return on Risk *** ML: 8-6 (57%) F5: 11-5-3 (69%) RL: 2-4 (33%) O/U: 16-6-4 (73%)
Yesterday's Results, 8/3/2014 Record: 7-3-1 (70%) Risked / To Win: 13.00 Units / 11.39 Units (avg. line of -114) Profit: +5.22 Units / +$116.07 Return on Risk: +40.12% https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101925594&page=1
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$22 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $60,254 on the season based on my return on risk performance. Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
Picks of the Day Record YTD: 37-21-7 (64%) *** +18.34% Return on Risk *** ML: 8-6 (57%) F5: 11-5-3 (69%) RL: 2-4 (33%) O/U: 16-6-4 (73%)
Yesterday's Results, 8/3/2014 Record: 7-3-1 (70%) Risked / To Win: 13.00 Units / 11.39 Units (avg. line of -114) Profit: +5.22 Units / +$116.07 Return on Risk: +40.12% https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101925594&page=1
Bet Sizing: 1 Unit is 1% of my bankroll (~$22 as of today). Admittedly, I place relatively small wagers in comparison to other bettors on individual plays. But, to put things into perspective, if you were a dime bettor and followed all of my plays you would be up $60,254 on the season based on my return on risk performance. Number of plays: I have received some feedback regarding the amount of action (plays) I have each day. I often elect to spread my risk out by selecting wagers that express the same view. So, while the number of bets might seem high, 2-3 plays on the same game can often be consolidated into 1 play with more concentrated risk. For example, sometimes I split my risk between the first 5 innings and the full game while also placing a wager on the run total.
Diversification/Money Management: Remember, you can express a view in a number of ways and it's about finding the cheapest way with the best risk/reward profile. Don't fall into the trap of putting too much risk in one place. You (and I) will lose "sure thing" wagers, so limiting the damage from one pick is imperative. If there is one takeaway this is it. Diversification is key to money management. There's a reason why I have placed 1,000+ wagers this season and still have my original bankroll (and some profit) to play with in the second half! As the season goes on, I will begin wagering plays with higher payouts but only with a portion of my profit.
Picks of the Day (POD) / Regular Play (RP): Going forward I will color code my plays to differentiate between my favorite plays (orange) and my regular value plays (blue). I won't necessarily size any differently. A few people approached me and asked me to do this, so I am going to try it out for the second half of the season. Maybe I will discover something that I can incorporate for the next season.
So close to a huge day
yesterday. The Pittsburgh 1-run loss - awful interference call to the
end the game following a blown chance to score by the Pirates - was
painful. Plus, the wash on the Atlanta/San Diego under. Lost the A's ML
by 1 run. Boo.
I wasn't expecting a busy card today with such a
light game schedule, but there is a quite a bit to play with today.
Several interesting match-ups.
Best of luck everyone! Monday's Card *** 8/4/2014 ***
Sides
San Francisco Giants ML (-120) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll Gee
has not looked good since coming off the DL. Hudson has been great on
the road and the Giants' offense has been coming to life. I mentioned in
yesterday's thread that I was surprised to see this one inside of -135
last night (higher in most books this AM)
Detroit Tigers F5 (-123) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Detroit Tigers ML (-125) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Significant
pitching advantage for the Tigers. Since getting shelled for 10 runs in
4 innings, by the then red hot Royals, Scherzer has gone 5-0 with a
2.07 ERA/1.21 WHIP over his last 7 starts (Tigers are 6-1 in those
games). The Tigers' bullpen scares me, so I am splitting the risk
between F5 and FG. For what it's worth, Scherzer has gone 7+ innings in 5
of his last 6 outings.
The Tigers' offense is superior to that
of the Yankees' offense - even with the recent additions. Plus, the
Tigers have been a great road team this year.
The Tigers are
41-14 over Scherzer's last 55 starts. When you feel compelled to bring
up the Yankees looking better, winning a few games in a row, or the
Yankees being 4-0 in McCarthy's 4 starts... think about that record for a
moment. McCarthy is a decent middle of the rotation starter and there
will be money to be made backing him. However, this is not a good spot
to go with McCarthy in my opinion.
Los Angeles Angeles F5 (+115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Los Angeles Angeles ML (+111) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Whenever
people see Greinke, especially at home, they automatically think he is a
favorite. However, the Angels' offense and ability to create runs makes
the Dodgers' offense look like a minor league team. And - in my opinion
- Richards is the better pitcher. I wouldn't over think this one.
The
Dodgers are banged up and just struggled vs. the Cubs over the weekend
series - and against Edwin Jackson - so they aren't exactly lighting it
on fire. Dropping 2 of 3 to the Cubs - while being outscored 17-10 - at
home doesn't lend itself to being favored with a line north of -125
against the Angels (in my book).
More on Richards. This guy has
been an absolute stud this season, going 11-4 in 22 starts, and he has
been better on the road (2.14 ERA / 0.93 WHIP). The Angels are 15-7 in
his starts overall, and have posted a record of 9-3 in Richards' 12 road
starts. In F5 matchups, Richards is 13-5-4 with a 2.98 ERA/1.10 WHIP.
What I find to be the most impressive about this kid is the fact that he
has only given up 5 HRs in 144 innings of work and is only giving up
6.5 hits per 9 innings. In other words, batters rarely make good
contact.
Splitting up the risk between F5 and FG in case Greinke is on and it turns into a pitching duel.
Cleveland Indians -1.5 RL (+130) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Baltimore Orioles ML (+132) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll Baltimore Orioles -1.5 RL (+200) --- 0.50 Units / 0.50% of Bankroll
Totals
Tampa Bay/Oakland Under 7 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll The
A's struggled to score runs over the weekend agains the Royals. Outside
of the 8 run inning on Saturday, the A's scored 2 runs in the other 25
innings. The offense is in a funk and they are going up a great pitcher
in Cobb.
After hitting a rough patch in June, shortly after
coming off the DL, Cobb has looked great over his last 5 starts. The run
total has exceeded 7 runs in 7 of Cobb's 16 starts (44%) this season.
The historical run totals for Simardzija are less meaningful as he
switched to a new team with a signicantly better bullpen.
San Francisco/New York Under 7 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
0
So close to a huge day
yesterday. The Pittsburgh 1-run loss - awful interference call to the
end the game following a blown chance to score by the Pirates - was
painful. Plus, the wash on the Atlanta/San Diego under. Lost the A's ML
by 1 run. Boo.
I wasn't expecting a busy card today with such a
light game schedule, but there is a quite a bit to play with today.
Several interesting match-ups.
Best of luck everyone! Monday's Card *** 8/4/2014 ***
Sides
San Francisco Giants ML (-120) --- 1.50 Units / 1.50% of Bankroll Gee
has not looked good since coming off the DL. Hudson has been great on
the road and the Giants' offense has been coming to life. I mentioned in
yesterday's thread that I was surprised to see this one inside of -135
last night (higher in most books this AM)
Detroit Tigers F5 (-123) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Detroit Tigers ML (-125) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Significant
pitching advantage for the Tigers. Since getting shelled for 10 runs in
4 innings, by the then red hot Royals, Scherzer has gone 5-0 with a
2.07 ERA/1.21 WHIP over his last 7 starts (Tigers are 6-1 in those
games). The Tigers' bullpen scares me, so I am splitting the risk
between F5 and FG. For what it's worth, Scherzer has gone 7+ innings in 5
of his last 6 outings.
The Tigers' offense is superior to that
of the Yankees' offense - even with the recent additions. Plus, the
Tigers have been a great road team this year.
The Tigers are
41-14 over Scherzer's last 55 starts. When you feel compelled to bring
up the Yankees looking better, winning a few games in a row, or the
Yankees being 4-0 in McCarthy's 4 starts... think about that record for a
moment. McCarthy is a decent middle of the rotation starter and there
will be money to be made backing him. However, this is not a good spot
to go with McCarthy in my opinion.
Los Angeles Angeles F5 (+115) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Los Angeles Angeles ML (+111) --- 0.75 Units / 0.75% of Bankroll Whenever
people see Greinke, especially at home, they automatically think he is a
favorite. However, the Angels' offense and ability to create runs makes
the Dodgers' offense look like a minor league team. And - in my opinion
- Richards is the better pitcher. I wouldn't over think this one.
The
Dodgers are banged up and just struggled vs. the Cubs over the weekend
series - and against Edwin Jackson - so they aren't exactly lighting it
on fire. Dropping 2 of 3 to the Cubs - while being outscored 17-10 - at
home doesn't lend itself to being favored with a line north of -125
against the Angels (in my book).
More on Richards. This guy has
been an absolute stud this season, going 11-4 in 22 starts, and he has
been better on the road (2.14 ERA / 0.93 WHIP). The Angels are 15-7 in
his starts overall, and have posted a record of 9-3 in Richards' 12 road
starts. In F5 matchups, Richards is 13-5-4 with a 2.98 ERA/1.10 WHIP.
What I find to be the most impressive about this kid is the fact that he
has only given up 5 HRs in 144 innings of work and is only giving up
6.5 hits per 9 innings. In other words, batters rarely make good
contact.
Splitting up the risk between F5 and FG in case Greinke is on and it turns into a pitching duel.
Cleveland Indians -1.5 RL (+130) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Baltimore Orioles ML (+132) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll Baltimore Orioles -1.5 RL (+200) --- 0.50 Units / 0.50% of Bankroll
Totals
Tampa Bay/Oakland Under 7 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll The
A's struggled to score runs over the weekend agains the Royals. Outside
of the 8 run inning on Saturday, the A's scored 2 runs in the other 25
innings. The offense is in a funk and they are going up a great pitcher
in Cobb.
After hitting a rough patch in June, shortly after
coming off the DL, Cobb has looked great over his last 5 starts. The run
total has exceeded 7 runs in 7 of Cobb's 16 starts (44%) this season.
The historical run totals for Simardzija are less meaningful as he
switched to a new team with a signicantly better bullpen.
San Francisco/New York Under 7 (-115) --- 1.00 Units / 1.00% of Bankroll
Balt..? wow.... Roark giving up only 4 ER in last 28 innings....Gausman has had some rough starts against quality offenses. What am I missing my man, because I had Nats at the top of my list today.
0
Balt..? wow.... Roark giving up only 4 ER in last 28 innings....Gausman has had some rough starts against quality offenses. What am I missing my man, because I had Nats at the top of my list today.
Balt..? wow.... Roark giving up only 4 ER in last 28 innings....Gausman has had some rough starts against quality offenses. What am I missing my man, because I had Nats at the top of my list today.
Gausman has given up 1 or fewer runs in 6 of his last 9 starts and Baltimore has the bigger bats / better offense.
I like Roark and wager on him regularly, but he shouldnt be -140 money against the Orioles and Gausman. Just my opinion, of course.
I am not picking the Orioles bc I believe they win this game, necessarily... I see value in the line (Both ML and RL). Don't understimate the Orioles. They have won 10 of their last 15 games vs. the likes of the A's (2 games), Angels (6 games), and Mariners (7 games). The Nationals have been playing .500 ball vs. the Reds, Marlins, and Phillies.
0
Quote Originally Posted by NoDayButToday:
Balt..? wow.... Roark giving up only 4 ER in last 28 innings....Gausman has had some rough starts against quality offenses. What am I missing my man, because I had Nats at the top of my list today.
Gausman has given up 1 or fewer runs in 6 of his last 9 starts and Baltimore has the bigger bats / better offense.
I like Roark and wager on him regularly, but he shouldnt be -140 money against the Orioles and Gausman. Just my opinion, of course.
I am not picking the Orioles bc I believe they win this game, necessarily... I see value in the line (Both ML and RL). Don't understimate the Orioles. They have won 10 of their last 15 games vs. the likes of the A's (2 games), Angels (6 games), and Mariners (7 games). The Nationals have been playing .500 ball vs. the Reds, Marlins, and Phillies.
Balt..? wow.... Roark giving up only 4 ER in last 28 innings....Gausman has had some rough starts against quality offenses. What am I missing my man, because I had Nats at the top of my list today.
sigh
maybe you shouldn't post if you are going to quote streaks as a basis for your decisions. I can find a trend in any game that will back my opinion just by deciding what length of time I want to look at. If you are basing your handicaps on what someone has done over x amount of time, how about looking at their counterpart for the same amount of time, or better yet, for the same amount of time vs similar opponents.
Roark and Guasman are ROOKIES! Neither has enough sample size to determine what their true numbers are. Roark pitched vs Philly, Cincy, and Philly again while they were possibly the worst batting orders in the majors at that time he faced them.
Guasman throws 97mph, Roarke throws 88. 97 is way above average velocity, 88 is way below. Gausman has a better arm. The stats will not tell you who is better because there is not enough sample
0
Quote Originally Posted by NoDayButToday:
Balt..? wow.... Roark giving up only 4 ER in last 28 innings....Gausman has had some rough starts against quality offenses. What am I missing my man, because I had Nats at the top of my list today.
sigh
maybe you shouldn't post if you are going to quote streaks as a basis for your decisions. I can find a trend in any game that will back my opinion just by deciding what length of time I want to look at. If you are basing your handicaps on what someone has done over x amount of time, how about looking at their counterpart for the same amount of time, or better yet, for the same amount of time vs similar opponents.
Roark and Guasman are ROOKIES! Neither has enough sample size to determine what their true numbers are. Roark pitched vs Philly, Cincy, and Philly again while they were possibly the worst batting orders in the majors at that time he faced them.
Guasman throws 97mph, Roarke throws 88. 97 is way above average velocity, 88 is way below. Gausman has a better arm. The stats will not tell you who is better because there is not enough sample
I like your picks today BirdsOnBat, which might be the kiss of death sadly as I've had a bad stretch the past 7 days. I'll try not to curse you too much, ha ha.
I love Richards as a pitcher also, but there is a nagging worry I have about him. Lately (last 3-5 starts), it seems he is slipping some in performance. Not sure if it is just a coincidence or if he is getting fatigued after throwing so many starts? It might be a moot point given how inept the Dodger bats can look any given night. I suspect though that the Dodger players have been looking forward to this series and may have not given the Cubs enough focus. I also realize the AL seems to have the advantage versus the NL. Also, the Angels just got done playing a long exhausting game in Tampa Bay and then flying across the country last night to play today. There might be a bit of tiredness and letdown the first day back from that road trip. I'm kind of leaning Dodgers (just a tad), but might lay off. I want to see what the lineups are first.
0
I like your picks today BirdsOnBat, which might be the kiss of death sadly as I've had a bad stretch the past 7 days. I'll try not to curse you too much, ha ha.
I love Richards as a pitcher also, but there is a nagging worry I have about him. Lately (last 3-5 starts), it seems he is slipping some in performance. Not sure if it is just a coincidence or if he is getting fatigued after throwing so many starts? It might be a moot point given how inept the Dodger bats can look any given night. I suspect though that the Dodger players have been looking forward to this series and may have not given the Cubs enough focus. I also realize the AL seems to have the advantage versus the NL. Also, the Angels just got done playing a long exhausting game in Tampa Bay and then flying across the country last night to play today. There might be a bit of tiredness and letdown the first day back from that road trip. I'm kind of leaning Dodgers (just a tad), but might lay off. I want to see what the lineups are first.
I like your picks today BirdsOnBat, which might be the kiss of death sadly as I've had a bad stretch the past 7 days. I'll try not to curse you too much, ha ha.
I love Richards as a pitcher also, but there is a nagging worry I have about him. Lately (last 3-5 starts), it seems he is slipping some in performance. Not sure if it is just a coincidence or if he is getting fatigued after throwing so many starts? It might be a moot point given how inept the Dodger bats can look any given night. I suspect though that the Dodger players have been looking forward to this series and may have not given the Cubs enough focus. I also realize the AL seems to have the advantage versus the NL. Also, the Angels just got done playing a long exhausting game in Tampa Bay and then flying across the country last night to play today. There might be a bit of tiredness and letdown the first day back from that road trip. I'm kind of leaning Dodgers (just a tad), but might lay off. I want to see what the lineups are first.
I feel you man. On Richards, he has given up 8 runs over his last 13 innings of work (5.54 ERA)... but those were starts against the Orioles and Tigers, who I would argue have more formidable lineups than that of the Dodgers.
Nothing is a given, but I am going to hit the Angels behind their best pitcher at plus money no matter who they are playing (home or away).
0
Quote Originally Posted by lakerz:
I like your picks today BirdsOnBat, which might be the kiss of death sadly as I've had a bad stretch the past 7 days. I'll try not to curse you too much, ha ha.
I love Richards as a pitcher also, but there is a nagging worry I have about him. Lately (last 3-5 starts), it seems he is slipping some in performance. Not sure if it is just a coincidence or if he is getting fatigued after throwing so many starts? It might be a moot point given how inept the Dodger bats can look any given night. I suspect though that the Dodger players have been looking forward to this series and may have not given the Cubs enough focus. I also realize the AL seems to have the advantage versus the NL. Also, the Angels just got done playing a long exhausting game in Tampa Bay and then flying across the country last night to play today. There might be a bit of tiredness and letdown the first day back from that road trip. I'm kind of leaning Dodgers (just a tad), but might lay off. I want to see what the lineups are first.
I feel you man. On Richards, he has given up 8 runs over his last 13 innings of work (5.54 ERA)... but those were starts against the Orioles and Tigers, who I would argue have more formidable lineups than that of the Dodgers.
Nothing is a given, but I am going to hit the Angels behind their best pitcher at plus money no matter who they are playing (home or away).
maybe you shouldn't post if you are going to quote streaks as a basis for your decisions. I can find a trend in any game that will back my opinion just by deciding what length of time I want to look at. If you are basing your handicaps on what someone has done over x amount of time, how about looking at their counterpart for the same amount of time, or better yet, for the same amount of time vs similar opponents.
Roark and Guasman are ROOKIES! Neither has enough sample size to determine what their true numbers are. Roark pitched vs Philly, Cincy, and Philly again while they were possibly the worst batting orders in the majors at that time he faced them.
Guasman throws 97mph, Roarke throws 88. 97 is way above average velocity, 88 is way below. Gausman has a better arm. The stats will not tell you who is better because there is not enough sample
lol maybe you shouldnt post if you are going to use velo as the base to determine who the "better" pitcher is...97 mph doesn't mean sh*t if you cant' spot it, 88 with movement and the ability to put it where you want holds way more value than a young live arm..... I am still learning how to bet baseball and baseball is a streaking sport no matter how talented or dominate you are....why wouldn't you use them as a starting point to determine a side especially when the sample size is so small..
0
Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:
sigh
maybe you shouldn't post if you are going to quote streaks as a basis for your decisions. I can find a trend in any game that will back my opinion just by deciding what length of time I want to look at. If you are basing your handicaps on what someone has done over x amount of time, how about looking at their counterpart for the same amount of time, or better yet, for the same amount of time vs similar opponents.
Roark and Guasman are ROOKIES! Neither has enough sample size to determine what their true numbers are. Roark pitched vs Philly, Cincy, and Philly again while they were possibly the worst batting orders in the majors at that time he faced them.
Guasman throws 97mph, Roarke throws 88. 97 is way above average velocity, 88 is way below. Gausman has a better arm. The stats will not tell you who is better because there is not enough sample
lol maybe you shouldnt post if you are going to use velo as the base to determine who the "better" pitcher is...97 mph doesn't mean sh*t if you cant' spot it, 88 with movement and the ability to put it where you want holds way more value than a young live arm..... I am still learning how to bet baseball and baseball is a streaking sport no matter how talented or dominate you are....why wouldn't you use them as a starting point to determine a side especially when the sample size is so small..
Don't mind me guys, I'm just a little ornery from having a losing day yesterday. Not gunna happen tonight
I like Bobs plays tonight, taking AL for pure value has worked thus far.
That being said, I looked deeper into the pitching matchup in Washington, and Roarks stats are mind boggling and he has enough innings to draw the conclusion that he is here to stay. Velocity isn't everything. Also, Guasman's peripherals don't look too hot.
I live in Balt/Wash market and I've seen every game these two have pitched this year and I like Gausman by the eyeball test, and Roark by the stat sheet.
However, these 2 are rookies and there has to be something to be said about the hitters both coming home to sleep in their own bed plus an extra half day off. Can't be totally ignored. For that reason I went pretty hard on f5o 3.5 at -120, expecting the price to rise.
also backing all of bobs plays and every f5o just coz
0
Don't mind me guys, I'm just a little ornery from having a losing day yesterday. Not gunna happen tonight
I like Bobs plays tonight, taking AL for pure value has worked thus far.
That being said, I looked deeper into the pitching matchup in Washington, and Roarks stats are mind boggling and he has enough innings to draw the conclusion that he is here to stay. Velocity isn't everything. Also, Guasman's peripherals don't look too hot.
I live in Balt/Wash market and I've seen every game these two have pitched this year and I like Gausman by the eyeball test, and Roark by the stat sheet.
However, these 2 are rookies and there has to be something to be said about the hitters both coming home to sleep in their own bed plus an extra half day off. Can't be totally ignored. For that reason I went pretty hard on f5o 3.5 at -120, expecting the price to rise.
also backing all of bobs plays and every f5o just coz
This is good stuff. However, for the inter league games you should adjust the runs allowed for AL/NL run production. I believe this year it is ~.3 runs per game. Would also be good to adjust for the division (e.g., some divisions are weaker or stronger in pitching or hitting).
This is good stuff. However, for the inter league games you should adjust the runs allowed for AL/NL run production. I believe this year it is ~.3 runs per game. Would also be good to adjust for the division (e.g., some divisions are weaker or stronger in pitching or hitting).
lol maybe you shouldnt post if you are going to use velo as the base to determine who the "better" pitcher is...97 mph doesn't mean sh*t if you cant' spot it, 88 with movement and the ability to put it where you want holds way more value than a young live arm..... I am still learning how to bet baseball and baseball is a streaking sport no matter how talented or dominate you are....why wouldn't you use them as a starting point to determine a side especially when the sample size is so small..
as far as stuff goes, it's Gausman hands down. He is a highly touted pitching prospect and has electric stuff. He has struggled with command from time to time (see his BB rate) at the MLB level, but that is to be expected.
Roark has shown very good command at the MLB level (better than he did in MiLB). He is 5 years older than Roark so he definitely has more seasoning. Watching Roark pitch, I can see him as a solid #3 or #4 pitcher in the rotation. He isn't overpowering and can execute pitches / get guys to hit into outs. I definitely don't see him as a top of the rotation guy, and good hitters will adjust to him since he isn't overpowering.
The offensive advantage goes to the Orioles in this one, IMO. The pitching, I would give a slight edge in terms of consistency to Roark… but Gausman is more likely to shut the nationals down than the other way around (from what I have seen). Just my opinion, of course.
0
Quote Originally Posted by NoDayButToday:
lol maybe you shouldnt post if you are going to use velo as the base to determine who the "better" pitcher is...97 mph doesn't mean sh*t if you cant' spot it, 88 with movement and the ability to put it where you want holds way more value than a young live arm..... I am still learning how to bet baseball and baseball is a streaking sport no matter how talented or dominate you are....why wouldn't you use them as a starting point to determine a side especially when the sample size is so small..
as far as stuff goes, it's Gausman hands down. He is a highly touted pitching prospect and has electric stuff. He has struggled with command from time to time (see his BB rate) at the MLB level, but that is to be expected.
Roark has shown very good command at the MLB level (better than he did in MiLB). He is 5 years older than Roark so he definitely has more seasoning. Watching Roark pitch, I can see him as a solid #3 or #4 pitcher in the rotation. He isn't overpowering and can execute pitches / get guys to hit into outs. I definitely don't see him as a top of the rotation guy, and good hitters will adjust to him since he isn't overpowering.
The offensive advantage goes to the Orioles in this one, IMO. The pitching, I would give a slight edge in terms of consistency to Roark… but Gausman is more likely to shut the nationals down than the other way around (from what I have seen). Just my opinion, of course.
The Nationals pounded Gausman for 7 runs in his start against them last season. I know it was only his 2nd or 3rd major league start ever and last year but still. Just throwing it out there
0
The Nationals pounded Gausman for 7 runs in his start against them last season. I know it was only his 2nd or 3rd major league start ever and last year but still. Just throwing it out there
I like both Gausman and Roark also. Two good talents. I'm not sure I would give the offensive edge to Baltimore right now. Their bats have been snoozing (batting under .200) the past 12 or so games. Nelson Cruz leading the futility parade at .100. Washington without Zimmerman is definitely unpredictable as well. I hope the Baltimore bats wake up since I went Baltimore.
0
I like both Gausman and Roark also. Two good talents. I'm not sure I would give the offensive edge to Baltimore right now. Their bats have been snoozing (batting under .200) the past 12 or so games. Nelson Cruz leading the futility parade at .100. Washington without Zimmerman is definitely unpredictable as well. I hope the Baltimore bats wake up since I went Baltimore.
The Nationals pounded Gausman for 7 runs in his start against them last season. I know it was only his 2nd or 3rd major league start ever and last year but still. Just throwing it out there
I saw that, but I looked over that for the most part. It's only one start. For example, the Phillies tagged Roark for 7 runs in 4 innings back in May and then Roark held them to 1 run over 7 innings 2 months later. Plus, a few of those guys who drove in runs and hit Gausman well (e.g., Lobaton, Zimmerman, and Moore) won't be in the lineup tonight.
0
Quote Originally Posted by snoops_og:
The Nationals pounded Gausman for 7 runs in his start against them last season. I know it was only his 2nd or 3rd major league start ever and last year but still. Just throwing it out there
I saw that, but I looked over that for the most part. It's only one start. For example, the Phillies tagged Roark for 7 runs in 4 innings back in May and then Roark held them to 1 run over 7 innings 2 months later. Plus, a few of those guys who drove in runs and hit Gausman well (e.g., Lobaton, Zimmerman, and Moore) won't be in the lineup tonight.
If Chris Davis continues to hit below the Mendoza line and bat 4th, watch out. I checked the lineup card and he's moved down to 5th while Machado has moved back up to second. Don't get fooled too much by the O's lack of run production. Everyone is producing except the clean up and they will improved just by this shift in the order.
GL and if you liked any of the f5 overs tonight I suggest playing it, these are all the lowest they can possibly put up
0
If Chris Davis continues to hit below the Mendoza line and bat 4th, watch out. I checked the lineup card and he's moved down to 5th while Machado has moved back up to second. Don't get fooled too much by the O's lack of run production. Everyone is producing except the clean up and they will improved just by this shift in the order.
GL and if you liked any of the f5 overs tonight I suggest playing it, these are all the lowest they can possibly put up
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.