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Bob's Monday MLB Picks *** 56% Hit Rate, 5.5% Return on Risk ***

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Posted: #26
I just took 3.5 +135 and ain't gonna overthink it

also, for some reason Detroit line keeps dropping. It's the Yankee effect. They have the most fans and they're on TV tonight so money is poring in. Just plugged it at -117 and I feel like I'm pilfering.

GL as always!
 
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Posted: #27
I think I am going to take the day off. Disgusted over my performance yesterday and today is a little scary in my opinion.

I like Baltimore and that is the game that is tempting me....

Detroit that line stinks to all high heaven. Even though most of the time that is not enough to turn me off of a game, this time it is. With the rotation Detroit has and Verlandef showing signs of life, maybe not 2011 but what he had last game was pretty good, there aren't going to be many games I don't give them the edge in. So knowing they are not going to win every single game, this seems lime a good spot to pass on them.

LA- Don't like form of Richards vs Greinke. Granted Richards faced teams that hit and Greinke not so much, but Richards was on my likely to regress list for the 2nd half, not a ton mind you just some, but perhaps that is occurring now. I generally love Richards stuff and ink he has a bright future but to see him fizzle a little in the 2nd half of his breakout campaign seems plausible to me.

Missed the line moves on the totals so those are out the window.

Best of luck tonight as always.
 
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Posted: #28
FWIW, there have been a lotta hard hit balls in this baltimore game, flaherty, a 200 hitter, smoked a line drive that resulted in an unlucky double play, then two homers

I'm happy with this bet even though it might lose, hope if you tailed we win, hope if it loses u didn't tail

tigermike, try betting 1% of BR like me n bob, it's more sustainable
 
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Posted: #29
Well, thanks to the double play ball that scored the run, I cannot have a losing night tonight. Its fine to do 1% of BR per play but if you see a big weakness in the lines you have to hit it hard.

First half totals are 3-0 so far and the bases are loaded with no out in NY.

Baseball isn't about who wins or loses, it's about squeezing value out of the lines. Tonight that had the absolute lowest number you can put on the first half totals, the only way to go was over, in all games.

Not recommending taking the overs in tonights games but if you took em all like I did so far buy the free rolls
 
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Posted: #30
I stepped away for awhile… very tough break on the Detroit F5 wager. Tigers blew opportunities to score (Bases loaded with 1 out), but we also caught a break on that great catch in CF with the bases loaded. Hopefully, we can salvage the FG.

I added:

Angels/Dodgers Over 3 F5 (+100) --- 0.50 Units / 0.50% of Bankroll
Los Angeles Angels Over 3 (+110) --- 0.50 Units / 0.50% of Bankroll
This game screams under, but I feel like we are going to be surprised in this ones with some runs. I am partial to the Angels in this one (re: my sides play), but I am going to take the F5 over as well in case Richards gets tagged for a few runs F5 as well. I was watching this line waiting for it to hit + money and managed to get it about 2 hours ago.

Again, best of luck everyone. 
 
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Posted: #31
Glanced at tomorrow's card. Padres stuck out right away. They got some guys back from the DL and are finally hitting the ball. Hughes peaked 2 months ago. Hahn is legit. Line going my way, too.....
 
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Posted: #32
Thanks for the heads up - was looking at the same play… def sticks out to me. Hahn continues to fly under the radar (as do the Padres during this hot streak). I am tempted to hit it… doing some more HW
 
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Posted: #33
lol another AL beatdown, why do ppl think baseball gambling is hard?

go Angels!
 
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Posted: #34
Under 7.5 in Arizona jumped at me. It's -115 to the over. Does anyone think that could touch Duffy is legit, no Goldy, KC generally doesn't hit, despite what they did to Kazmir. Even if they do score 4, doesn't 4-2 4-3 seem really plausible?
 
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Posted: #35
never heard of a 7.5 total in AZ before
 
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Posted: #36
Yeah not something you see everyday that's why I was thinking possibly we could see this get pushed up to 8.... I love KC's bullpen and Duffy, that is a nasty combination.
 
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Posted: #37
Angels coming out swinging
 
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Posted: #38
yeah I had to put an extra unit on it coz I'm cleaning house tonight

tigermike, don't take any days off from this, just make your bet sizes small enough so a tough day doesn't kill you, the only thing that can happen to make you lose is losing all your roll and not being able to bet.

I've studied the math and I think 1% of BR is optimum for baseball, I'd like to see bob pound some plays for 5 or more. Kelly says you can bet up to 10% on any one play. That's what I had for Wash/Balt f5o. But mostly I'm just betting 100 of my 10K roll and I'll never be hurt that bad in one day. Quantity is the way to go coz you will get locked in more often than not if you stick with me n bob.
 
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Posted: #39
easiest overs ever!

on that note - was thinking about this before the game - but I am looking at the Angels at +205 for tomorrow. Several of the Angels players (e.g., Pujols, Kendrick, and Aybar) have hit kershaw well. Angels crush lefties… Dodgers are pitiful vs. lefties. 

I love me some Kershaw, but at great than -200 he does not look good… even if it is at home. 
 
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Posted: #40
What an outstanding read on that Angels game...

URZ I here what you are saying, but I am really not playing over my head. May need to bust it down on days when I play many plays. I have an amount that I am comfortable with putting in action. I just didn't like the way I read things yesterday and know how I have struggled when the calendar has flipped to August in years past. I have not been strong this year since May really, June was a disaster and July was mediocre, saved only by starting to focus on totals, and reading what you, bob and treyinventor
 
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Posted: #41
Accidentally hit submit...... Have to say on the subject as you guys and totals have added to my knowledge base. I have learned plenty, and am always looking to learn every single day. I am just a bit gun shy as I have not had the season I expected to have at this point and don't want to get buried in a month that I have historically struggled. My struggle in June was nearly unprecedented, April and June have historically been my absolute best for whatever the reason.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Tigermike1975:

What an outstanding read on that Angels game...

URZ I here what you are saying, but I am really not playing over my head. May need to bust it down on days when I play many plays. I have an amount that I am comfortable with putting in action. I just didn't like the way I read things yesterday and know how I have struggled when the calendar has flipped to August in years past. I have not been strong this year since May really, June was a disaster and July was mediocre, saved only by starting to focus on totals, and reading what you, bob and treyinventor

I tend to do my own HW first and will execute/hit lines late at night… but I will also take a list of games I am leaning on and read what other posters - whom I respect on here - say about the games.

I like to spread my risk out when I cap games, so that I don't get too beat up by any one play. I like between 8-12 plays most days. 

Some guys risk 2-5% of bankroll on each play and put on 3 wagers. I put on the same amount of risk (in dollars), but I have more diversification and don't get bombed by crazy outcomes.

I have my bad days… I have some great days… but usually I am in the -20% to +20% return on risk range. I don't go bust bc my sizing is always pegged as a % of my bankroll. At the beginning of the season, I was wagering $15 on each play and now I am wagering $23-$25 (some fluctuations recently). I am toying around with updating my sizing on totals (1.5%.. up from 1%) and my PODs (2% of bankroll).

always enjoy the good back and forth in the various threads on this site. always learning from everyone.
 
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Posted: #43
well I seem to do really well when I post in bobs threads and follow a lot of his plays, I can tell you that often times i'm taking the games he likes that i wasn't going to play, I hope he takes mine, its all about the dollars

one thing you need to drop tigermike is thinking correlations exist when they logically can't exist

the only reason why you may find yourself doing less well this time of year is because the lines have tightened but there is always value in the games, you are just remembering a particularly bad stretch

oftentimes we remember the bad and not the good, but baseballl doesn't care about us

good luck tomorrow guys, I'm hitting it early, made almost 1.5K today  and I'm gonna eat some sushi
 
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Posted: #44
Would like to play Anaheim again tomorrow too, but what I don't like is second day back from east coast trip. Second day back is where fatigue shows up, not the first. It's even worse if they win tonight. The opportunity to kick back and relax for a minute will present itself. Just my two cents....
 
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Posted: #45
Angels/Dodgers ML for tomorrow is @ +230. That was enough for my to take a flyer. Kershaw and the Dodgers win this game more often than not, but +230 is crazy.
 
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Posted: #46
Appreciate your stuff Bob....passed altogether on the Nats/Balt. Saved me some change. Angels +1.5 -110 locked for tmro already, might lay some on the under as well. 
 
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Posted: #47
lotta AL vs NL games tonight but one thing to remember

the NL has adjusted usually in the second game of the series, AL is crushing NL but it's still baseball and edges are thin, expect a much more competitive game in cleveland tonight imo, in fact, the value seems to be with the reds

dunno how i'm gonna play this but the domination by the AL has manifested itself in the first game usually, there are some exceptions, for example Minn went to Col just before the break and lost the first won the next 2 so if you are playing all AL tonight it might be a good chase
 
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Posted: #48
also I see some good series numbers on the AL, so considering those as well, waiting to see what kinda card bob is putting out tonight before I pull triggers
 
 
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Posted: #49
Another excellent day from you BirdsOnBat (and also URZ262).  I applaud your results!

My big thing is bankroll management, as you guys discuss.  I just can't help myself at times but feel compelled to pound a certain game that I just love.  Yesterday it was Detroit F5.  Of course it lost for me, LOL.  If I was to just refuse to bet more than 1u (maybe 1.5u) on ever wager like BirdsOnBat does, my account would be way up instead of just marginally up.
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