All Forums | MLB Betting

Bodio's MLB Tue 04/19

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 22411
Posts: 106
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 57577
Posted: #51
bol
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Czar_10:

Not so sure about the CINN game i see it as a coin flip plus ARZ can score hard in any inning.. weather TSTORM at Cinn. 

-------- watch the O/U Lines in this games....

LAA - Matt Palmer(R) 0-0  WHIP 2.36  ERA 7.71  LAA vs (R) .254                  BP: 3.86
TEX - Colby Lewis(R) 1-1  WHIP 1.25  ERA 5.25  TEX vs (R) .273 + better @ home  BP: 2.87

LAA  150 
TEX -170  o/u 10

BOS - John Lackey(R) 1-1  WHIP 2.42 ERA 15.58  BOS vs (L) .252 - poor away but goin up  BP: 6.07 
OAK - B. Anderson(L) 0-1  WHIP 1.22 ERA  2.29  OAK VS (R) .250                          BP: 4.10

BOS  110
OAK -130  o/u 7.5


1st LEANS   TEX &  OAK

Bodio dont you think in the o/u's that the lines are too hi & low due the momentum of the teams plus the BP´s

let me know what you think.. and thanks everyday for the breakdowns here and NBA we all appreciate that..

GL   TODAY with ur picks

hope we all get back on track.. 

Sure, momentum could effect lines, but I think momentum is sometimes a bit over-rated as well...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by RoosterKing:

Damn CHW got us again B...

Yeah I know....damn Sox!  :)
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

Lol I mentioned this in yesterdays post, but this white sox team seems to be treating you and us like them fucking Deer. 


oh yeah...they're the 'DEER' of the MLB!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by blgers1:

   Fairly new to baseball betting, what is FIP & xFIP?


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2006
Posts: 1718
Posted: #56

Hey Bodio,

Thanks much for all your hard work and picks.

Quick question...never heard of pregame.com before...is it worth my time going there and reading the posts?

 

 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 58493
Posted: #57
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 80
Posted: #58
Great write-up man, thanks for the picks and analysis, very helpful
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 1297
Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Professional1:

no one ever got rich laying -150 and -160 in baseball

Pro1- I don't agree with ya man.

At -150 you need to hit 60% of your games to stay profitable.  The thing is you aren't always going to lay -150.  If you keep -150 as the high-end of your spectrum (pick your spots wisely), play some games at +120, some games at -105, and average -120 ishhhh at the end of the season, you will be fine bud.

I'm on the Big Red Machine Tonight.  This is the first game on the road, after a long home stand for AZ.  AZ is a completely different team on the road, away from that dry air in the desert!  This is one of those "spots" to lay the juice IMO...


 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2005
Posts: 16804
Posted: #60
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 1072
Posted: #61
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 3
Posted: #62
Yo B,  Love your work.

First time posting... but been following your analysis daily since the NCAABB Playoffs.

Question: do you expect A-Rod's absence to affect the 'total' in the TOR/NYY over?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2009
Posts: 2275
Posted: #63
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 26029
Posted: #64
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2005
Posts: 2940
Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

#2: OVER 8.5 NYY/TOR -120

Drabek is a solid young pitcher, but I think he'll struggle in this one. First of all, he was very inefficient in his first start, throwing 52% strikes. He gave up 6 hits, issued 4 BB's in only 5.2 innings of work, and was fairly lucky to give up only 2 ER's. That was against the Mariners. Today, he'll face this potent Yankee lineup. Oh, and Drabek is coming off a 114 pitch performance, so I'm wondering how 'lively' his arm will be tonight. Burnett is a fairly mediocre pitcher, allowing 17 hits in 17 innings pitched with 9 ER's, and 3 HR's this season. This Toronto lineup is batting .262 with OPB of .352 and OPS of .820 off him. I expect some runs to be scored in this one.

 
hello bodio. thought i would counterpoint, its a lot more fun then just cheerleading.
 
I think you are referring to drabaks "last" start being inefficient, as his "first" start was a 7 inning 1 hitter vs the twins. Yes, did did not have his best outing vs a weak lineup. But despite 6 hits, only 2 runs scored.
 
Plus, the Yanks are 110% dependent on the longball for scoring. & Drabek has given up only 1 HR so far this season.
 
I don't play totals. so good luck on your action. I just hope its the blue jays that get all the runs.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 1198
Posted: #66
 Not so sure about A's but maybe a pass for me
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 955
Posted: #67

ur taking the over in ny-tor? how do you make this play without knowing the home plate umpire?

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 129
Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by Plisskin76:

Bodio, enjoy reading your breakdowns. I was reading your RL versus ML topic yesterday. I have an interesting column on it in the gamingtoday.com newsletter available for free here in vegas.

Volume 35 #31 from july-aug 2,2010. Look it up and give it a read.

It does state that the RL comes into play about 17% of the time and over 20 years, almost 70% of all games are won by 2+ runs and about 30% won by one run. That 30% includes dogs winning by 1 run.


Hmmm,then I wonder why it seems like 98% of the games I bet the RL on are 1 run games-that I lose.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 9147
Posted: #69

Probably because you take huge favorites on the RL and not mid-range favorites that over the course of a couple seasons has beaten said team by more then 2 runs more the 75% of the time.

If you laid the RL on the tigers yesterday solid play. Laying the RL on an over valued team against an undervalued team against a pitcher that is underperforming, situations like that is when people get into trouble. Brewers/Phils tonight ;-)

Marlins/Pirates tonight ;-)

they are plays that hold no real value over the course of a season as ultimately it is just one game a game that either team can easily afford to lose. Not to mention teams always play their best pitchers against the other teams best pitchers. So when you take a hyped pitcher on the RL you're still laying and that is your problem. The phils are not good enough and cliff lee is not on to be laying money for the phils to win by two tonight.

Josh Johnson is a solid pitcher but the marlins are not a solid team and maholm is undervalued, you do not want to lay money on the to win by two tonight as well.

Will they win by two, they could and the odds of them doing it are decent but the odds are not worth the added risk for your dollar.

As i wrote this the marlines line moved. +105 for RL now, still a bad play.

Solid RL plays are plays used to gain high value and plays to turn a -150 team into a plus money play.

So like the dodgers tonight, the o's, the a's.

Anyways enough rl analysis and off topic convo.

BOL bodio. Hit them reds to, i took them rl though. Numbers are in my favor. Like them to win by 2. Also to the person who said gallaraga was pitching for his job, one could say lecure is too even though ultimately bailey or cueto will replace him. I can't see gallarag staying in for duke even if he pitches well tonight, and if the coach told him that it's most likely hog wash.

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2009
Posts: 9147
Posted: #70
lmfao my bad. halladay is today. lee is tomorrow.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 3541
Posted: #71
Have to agree with you about the RL value on the Fish against the Pirates...Maholm is 20th in the NL on the Sagarin chart. If anything I'd have to take the Pirates at +1.5 when considering that and that the Pirates have actually been hitting lately. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by bruins17:

Hey Bodio,

Thanks much for all your hard work and picks.

Quick question...never heard of pregame.com before...is it worth my time going there and reading the posts?

 


Sure...it's just like Covers, except people provide more analysis and interesting 'angles' with their plays, as opposed to here on covers, it seems majority just post their picks without much logic included
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by Gmoneysdad:

Yo B,  Love your work.

First time posting... but been following your analysis daily since the NCAABB Playoffs.

Question: do you expect A-Rod's absence to affect the 'total' in the TOR/NYY over?

I don't think it will matter.  NYY has enough bats to cover for his absence
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by joshfactor:

 
hello bodio. thought i would counterpoint, its a lot more fun then just cheerleading.
 
I think you are referring to drabaks "last" start being inefficient, as his "first" start was a 7 inning 1 hitter vs the twins. Yes, did did not have his best outing vs a weak lineup. But despite 6 hits, only 2 runs scored.
 
Plus, the Yanks are 110% dependent on the longball for scoring. & Drabek has given up only 1 HR so far this season.
 
I don't play totals. so good luck on your action. I just hope its the blue jays that get all the runs.

Yes, I meant 'last start'.  My bad
Yankees hit well of Drabek when they faced him last year and with his control issues in his last outing, as well as a high pitch count, I expect the Bombers to get a few runs in this one off him
 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:

Probably because you take huge favorites on the RL and not mid-range favorites that over the course of a couple seasons has beaten said team by more then 2 runs more the 75% of the time.

If you laid the RL on the tigers yesterday solid play. Laying the RL on an over valued team against an undervalued team against a pitcher that is underperforming, situations like that is when people get into trouble. Brewers/Phils tonight ;-)

Marlins/Pirates tonight ;-)

they are plays that hold no real value over the course of a season as ultimately it is just one game a game that either team can easily afford to lose. Not to mention teams always play their best pitchers against the other teams best pitchers. So when you take a hyped pitcher on the RL you're still laying and that is your problem. The phils are not good enough and cliff lee is not on to be laying money for the phils to win by two tonight.

Josh Johnson is a solid pitcher but the marlins are not a solid team and maholm is undervalued, you do not want to lay money on the to win by two tonight as well.

Will they win by two, they could and the odds of them doing it are decent but the odds are not worth the added risk for your dollar.

As i wrote this the marlines line moved. +105 for RL now, still a bad play.

Solid RL plays are plays used to gain high value and plays to turn a -150 team into a plus money play.

So like the dodgers tonight, the o's, the a's.

Anyways enough rl analysis and off topic convo.

BOL bodio. Hit them reds to, i took them rl though. Numbers are in my favor. Like them to win by 2. Also to the person who said gallaraga was pitching for his job, one could say lecure is too even though ultimately bailey or cueto will replace him. I can't see gallarag staying in for duke even if he pitches well tonight, and if the coach told him that it's most likely hog wash.


Very solid points!
GL bud
All Forums | MLB Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2025 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.