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Bodio's MLB Fri 06/24

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Posted: #51
10dalicious...FYI Toronto Rock won a championship in Lacrosse this yr...can't call ALL Toronto teams sucky
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

By the way, the strongest O/U leans according to the model:

UNDER 6.5 ATL/SD -- I have it at 5 total runs
I actually really wanted to play this one as I love how this one sets up but just can't justify laying -130 juice on a UNDER 6.5 play.  Should have played it last night when the odds just came out.  Big mistake!

UNDER 9.5 ARZ/DET -- I have this one at 7.5 total runs. 
This is a huge discrepancy.  I do expect Coke to rebound especially since he's never faced this Zona lineup before, and Duke is nothing special really.  Just a big variance in my # and the posted total so I've decided to avoid this one.

OVER 9 NYM/TEX -- This one was an 'almost' play but again I waited too long and the odds are at 9.5 now  I have this one at 11.

The rest were 'weaker' leans according to the model:

UNDER 8 BOS/PIT
OVER 8.5 OAK/PHI
UNDER 8 WAS/CHW
UNDER 8 TOR/STL (would have been a play if not for Westbrook's high pitch-count his last outing)





Bodio I really liking Texas tonight got them early at -152 and now the line has moved up to -163. Any thoughts on the Rangers tonight? Thank you sir
 
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Posted: #53

Quote Originally Posted by kRaZeEpLaYa:

10dalicious...FYI Toronto Rock won a championship in Lacrosse this yr...can't call ALL Toronto teams sucky

Shoot sorry my bad, they did too. When is the parade for that?  You ask anyone who is not affiliated with Toronto  what they think about it. They will all say TO sucks. 100%  : )) I am very sour about the Maple Leaves perhaps, bursting out with negativity on all the other franchises.

 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by grindstone:


Bodio I really liking Texas tonight got them early at -152 and now the line has moved up to -163. Any thoughts on the Rangers tonight? Thank you sir

Raw numbers:  Mets 4.5 - Rangers 4.2

Obviously neither team has faced these lineups in the past.  Pelfrey is coming off a game where he threw a ton of pitches and averages 94 per game.  Harrison is nothing special with a pathetic 1.45 K/BB ratio, 4.18 xFIP (Pelf: 4.30) and 4.7 tERA (Pelf: 4.2).  I know he's done pretty well in 4 of his last 5 starts but that came against MIN, PHI (not as good of an offensive team as people think); KC, and ATL.  For the season he has a BABIp of .257 (very very lucky) and a -1.02 E-F indicates that regression to the mean is in order.  Mets are a middle-of-the-pack hitting club and are capable of getting to him.  Also, NY has an advantage in the BP as Rangers are horrible in that area.  If Pelfrey wasn't coming into this one in a 'fatigue' spot, I'd say 'value' is on the Mets.  In this instance, it's best to PASS in my opinion
 
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Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Raw numbers:  Mets 4.5 - Rangers 4.2

Obviously neither team has faced these lineups in the past.  Pelfrey is coming off a game where he threw a ton of pitches and averages 94 per game.  Harrison is nothing special with a pathetic 1.45 K/BB ratio, 4.18 xFIP (Pelf: 4.30) and 4.7 tERA (Pelf: 4.2).  I know he's done pretty well in 4 of his last 5 starts but that came against MIN, PHI (not as good of an offensive team as people think); KC, and ATL.  For the season he has a BABIp of .257 (very very lucky) and a -1.02 E-F indicates that regression to the mean is in order.  Mets are a middle-of-the-pack hitting club and are capable of getting to him.  Also, NY has an advantage in the BP as Rangers are horrible in that area.  If Pelfrey wasn't coming into this one in a 'fatigue' spot, I'd say 'value' is on the Mets.  In this instance, it's best to PASS in my opinion

OR actually, take a look at the OVER in this one!  I loved it at 9 (my model has it at 11 adjusted for ball-park, weather, etc.) but it went up to 9.5 unfortunately
 
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Posted: #56
jays look solid


bol bodio
 
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Posted: #57
Hey Bodio...Any chance you know NROPP?  He also is from Illinios and was a very good capper....Just curious...
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by BonoBob:

Hey Bodio...Any chance you know NROPP?  He also is from Illinios and was a very good capper....Just curious...

nope
 
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Posted: #59

BOL Bodio

 
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Posted: #60

Best of Luck 

 
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Posted: #61
BOL
 
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Posted: #62
CWS......
 
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Posted: #63
Bodio you should listen to your leans they are solid

I did some research in about 2-3 hrs i finished my plays

atl/sd under 6.5 looks solid considering stauffer hasnt given up much in the last 30 innings but i stayed away  put atl money line in 2 30$ parlays

im on under 9.5 in detroit with detroit ml i like coke in this spot duke is nothing special

im on over 9 in the mets/rangers game i expect it to go to 7-4 or 6-5 at least maybe even 8-3

under 8 in wash/whitesox with white sox ml

under 9 in philadelphia but i didnt put the bet in because of % chance of rain

riding red sox runline today


 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by 10dalicious:

First of all Bodio you are Zeus ! Second, Toronto sucks. Period. Every franchise it TO sucks, hockey, basketball, cfl football, soccer, lacross, everything blows there. Infact every visiting team need at least a couple of games after they play in TO to start winning again. Just look at what they did with the nr.5 pick in basketball. You can have a bunch of X-men wearing Blue Jays uniform and I still wouldn't bet on then. STL -1.5 for me. Then again I have no clue at what you are the best at. GL

hahahaha  

Thats how I feel about Boston.

BTW, I just locked in both your games Bo.  whoops. 
 
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Posted: #65
 
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Posted: #66
really like Toronto play bro!
ATTENTION 10 stars play!!!!!! 


good luck!
 
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Posted: #67
gl bodio!!!! i like that under in detroit aswell!!! alot of people like the over !!!  lets get this paper today buddy!!!
 
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Posted: #68
GL BODIO
 
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Posted: #69
BOL
 
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Posted: #70
My spidey-sense tells me things go well tonight!
 
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Posted: #71
Fading TOR, Morrow projected < 6 innings, STL cruises.  In case of Morrow, past performance is no guarantee for future results.

Instead of 'imagining' a CWS victory, taking UNDER instead.

 
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Posted: #72
Great pic! 
 
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Posted: #73
sigh....do we abandon ship?
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by 10dalicious:

Shoot sorry my bad, they did too. When is the parade for that?  You ask anyone who is not affiliated with Toronto  what they think about it. They will all say TO sucks. 100%  : )) I am very sour about the Maple Leaves perhaps, bursting out with negativity on all the other franchises.

I hear ya bro...I'm in T.O and feel the pain EVERY year. I was gonna finish my post but hit send by accident (damn iPhone). We'll only start to win once the damn owners stop filling their pockets with all the money they get from sell-out crowds for losing teams at INSANE tick prices. T.O will never boycott their teams win or lose and owners know this....just my 2 cents.

 
 
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Posted: #75
just looking at stats will almost always bring you to betting the fav. especially in baseball you have to use some of your own knowledge in making selections thats whats seperates the winners and losers its not easy betting baseball its very different than betting other sports you have to bet underdogs at a pretty good rate just ask game hunter..sims key ....hitterno 24..and a few others ...........
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