Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
164 - 133 @ 55% for +15.12 Units
Fri 08/26
#1: Cincinnati Reds -146
Chien-Ming Wang is making a pretty impressive return to the majors after missing 2 years in the big-leagues. He's coming off 2 victories and 1 'no-decision' (team win) and everyone is talking highly about him. Well, I expect him to get 'whacked' tonight! Part of the reason is that he faced this Reds team only 10 days ago. In that outing he gave up 7 hits and 4 ER's in only 6.1 innings of work with 1 BB and ZERO K's. The fact that he registered ZERO strike-outs in that outing is definitely a reason to be concerned (he only has 7 K's in 27 innings of work!!!), but even more telling sign that he got a bit lucky were 7 'line-outs' that Cincy registered against him. Basically, the Reds hit him hard and hit him well, just got a bit unlucky with the baseballs finding the defenders. The 'unfamiliarity' angle is gone and I see Cincy offense being very successful against him tonight. On the other side, we have another pitcher coming back from injuries in Dontrelle Willis. He's 0-3 this season but hasn't pitched that bad. Why do I see him getting his first win here? Well, he hasn't faced most of these hitters since 2007 so he has the 'unfamiliarity' factor in his favor. At the same time he's a lefty, and Nationals are the 4th worst offensive squad against left-handers this season. With Nats struggling away from home at 25-39 (39%) this year, I see a comfortable Cincy win in this one.
#2: Philadelphia Phillies -1 RL -162
I've been fading Hensley quiet a bit this year so no need to stop now. The guy is a horrendous pitcher, and there really is nothing much more to add here. Oswald on the other hand is looking sharp. In his first start off DL he got rocked for 12 hits and didn't look very good. I his 2nd start, he allowed 6 hits in 7 innings of work with 5 K's to 1 BB. In his 3rd start (the one prior to this one) he was very sharp, allowing 0 ER's on 8 hits in 8 innings of work with 9 K's to 1 BB. Now he'll face a team that is 2-10 in their last 12 games with 7 of those losses coming by 2+ runs. Philly is averaging 12 hits per game and 7.66 rpg in their last 3. They're 8-1 as a home favorite in the -200 to -225 range and 35-9 after a loss this year. I like them to win this one comfortably tonight.
#3: Los Angeles Angels +102
Two teams going in opposite directions here. Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 games while Rangers are 1-4 in that span. Angels have generated 12, 12, 13, 12, and 10 hits in those games for a 12 hit per game average and 7.4 rpg. Rangers haven't had double-digits in hits in 8 straight games and averaged 5.8 hpg in their last 5, scoring 2.2 rpg in that span while getting shut-out twice. Add in the fact that Haren is a much better pitcher 'statistically' and I really love this play. Finally, I want to point out that Holland, albeit a decent pitcher, is not as effective against right-handers. His career xFIP against righties is a poor 4.32 compared to a solid 3.52 xFIP against left-handers. Check out LAA's most recent lineup:
1. Peter Bourjos (R) CF
2. Alberto Callaspo (S) 3B
3. Bobby Abreu (L) DH
4. Torii Hunter (R) RF
5. Mark Trumbo (R) 1B
6. Howard Kendrick (R) 2B
7. Vernon Wells (R) LF
8. Erick Aybar (S) SS
9. Jeff Mathis (R) C
Only 1 left-handed bat! Throw in the fact that 15 of Holland's 17 HR's have been hit by righties and the fact that this game is in a 'hitters park', and I'm really beginning to LOVE this one.
#4: UNDER 8.5 KCR/CLE -115
If you can get this one at 9 still, do it! If not, I still like this one at 8.5 as I have this one at 7.5 total runs today. Jimenez is facing KC for the first time in his career and he's coming off an 82-pitch disaster. I expect him to rebound here. Paulino has been one of the most underrated pitchers statistically this year and I expect him to pitch well again tonight. Both lineups are dealing with a number of injuries and with the wind blowing in slightly tonight, I see this being a low scoring affair.
Good luck!
PS: OVER in the CHC/MIL game was almost play #5. Since I didn't get it at 8.5 I decided to pass as 10 total runs are needed for the bet to win now. If you see it at 8.5 anywhere still I would recommend a play to the OVER.
164 - 133 @ 55% for +15.12 Units
Fri 08/26
#1: Cincinnati Reds -146
Chien-Ming Wang is making a pretty impressive return to the majors after missing 2 years in the big-leagues. He's coming off 2 victories and 1 'no-decision' (team win) and everyone is talking highly about him. Well, I expect him to get 'whacked' tonight! Part of the reason is that he faced this Reds team only 10 days ago. In that outing he gave up 7 hits and 4 ER's in only 6.1 innings of work with 1 BB and ZERO K's. The fact that he registered ZERO strike-outs in that outing is definitely a reason to be concerned (he only has 7 K's in 27 innings of work!!!), but even more telling sign that he got a bit lucky were 7 'line-outs' that Cincy registered against him. Basically, the Reds hit him hard and hit him well, just got a bit unlucky with the baseballs finding the defenders. The 'unfamiliarity' angle is gone and I see Cincy offense being very successful against him tonight. On the other side, we have another pitcher coming back from injuries in Dontrelle Willis. He's 0-3 this season but hasn't pitched that bad. Why do I see him getting his first win here? Well, he hasn't faced most of these hitters since 2007 so he has the 'unfamiliarity' factor in his favor. At the same time he's a lefty, and Nationals are the 4th worst offensive squad against left-handers this season. With Nats struggling away from home at 25-39 (39%) this year, I see a comfortable Cincy win in this one.
#2: Philadelphia Phillies -1 RL -162
I've been fading Hensley quiet a bit this year so no need to stop now. The guy is a horrendous pitcher, and there really is nothing much more to add here. Oswald on the other hand is looking sharp. In his first start off DL he got rocked for 12 hits and didn't look very good. I his 2nd start, he allowed 6 hits in 7 innings of work with 5 K's to 1 BB. In his 3rd start (the one prior to this one) he was very sharp, allowing 0 ER's on 8 hits in 8 innings of work with 9 K's to 1 BB. Now he'll face a team that is 2-10 in their last 12 games with 7 of those losses coming by 2+ runs. Philly is averaging 12 hits per game and 7.66 rpg in their last 3. They're 8-1 as a home favorite in the -200 to -225 range and 35-9 after a loss this year. I like them to win this one comfortably tonight.
#3: Los Angeles Angels +102
Two teams going in opposite directions here. Angels are 5-0 in their last 5 games while Rangers are 1-4 in that span. Angels have generated 12, 12, 13, 12, and 10 hits in those games for a 12 hit per game average and 7.4 rpg. Rangers haven't had double-digits in hits in 8 straight games and averaged 5.8 hpg in their last 5, scoring 2.2 rpg in that span while getting shut-out twice. Add in the fact that Haren is a much better pitcher 'statistically' and I really love this play. Finally, I want to point out that Holland, albeit a decent pitcher, is not as effective against right-handers. His career xFIP against righties is a poor 4.32 compared to a solid 3.52 xFIP against left-handers. Check out LAA's most recent lineup:
1. Peter Bourjos (R) CF
2. Alberto Callaspo (S) 3B
3. Bobby Abreu (L) DH
4. Torii Hunter (R) RF
5. Mark Trumbo (R) 1B
6. Howard Kendrick (R) 2B
7. Vernon Wells (R) LF
8. Erick Aybar (S) SS
9. Jeff Mathis (R) C
Only 1 left-handed bat! Throw in the fact that 15 of Holland's 17 HR's have been hit by righties and the fact that this game is in a 'hitters park', and I'm really beginning to LOVE this one.
#4: UNDER 8.5 KCR/CLE -115
If you can get this one at 9 still, do it! If not, I still like this one at 8.5 as I have this one at 7.5 total runs today. Jimenez is facing KC for the first time in his career and he's coming off an 82-pitch disaster. I expect him to rebound here. Paulino has been one of the most underrated pitchers statistically this year and I expect him to pitch well again tonight. Both lineups are dealing with a number of injuries and with the wind blowing in slightly tonight, I see this being a low scoring affair.
Good luck!
PS: OVER in the CHC/MIL game was almost play #5. Since I didn't get it at 8.5 I decided to pass as 10 total runs are needed for the bet to win now. If you see it at 8.5 anywhere still I would recommend a play to the OVER.
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'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
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'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
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TOTAL: 415-277 @ 60% for +$107,580
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