Bodio's MLB Mon 05/23

Yes, I have an advanced Excel model (keep updating it as we go along to make it better and better -- hopefully ) that performs certain calculations to identify 'value' plays for me.  I do use fangraphs for majority of the data in the model.  Even after identifying those, I still breakdown every MLB game (even the ones my model doesn't recommend) just to see if I find some 'value' or an interesting angle that's worth exploiting.  It's rare, but sometimes I go with a play that wasn't initially on my model's radar.

Cin/Phi U -- Cincinnati has had a lot of success against lefties this year.  That being said, Hamels has been their cryptonie historically.  I believe he's like 7-0 against them or something like that.  Phillies have had success off Arroyo but their bats have been pretty cold lately.  All in all, I see some value in this play actually.  My model has this one at 6.7 runs.

Hou/LAD U - definitely some value here as well.  I have this one at 6.2.  Kershaw is in a rebound mode for sure and Norris has excellent advanced stats.  Going up against a Dodgers team that is likely missing Ethier and Barajas today, is definitely a bouns.  This one was on my strong leans list, but I can't remember why I decided to lay off this one.  Hmmmm....

I remember why I passed on that LAD/HOU total...the wind is supposed to be blowing out at 11-14 mph..

I have that one at 8.1 so that total is right on.  Sure the BP's are pretty bad but neither offense has been lighting things up.  Coke has been impressive his last 2 starts, especially the one against the hot Red Sox team.  Hellickson is coming off an 80+ pitch performance so he should be rested for this one. Just not enough factors for me to take the OVER.

Sea ML -- definitely was on my 'leans' list.  Pavano has pitched much better the last 2 outings while Vargas is coming off a 115 pitch performance.  He tends to struggle when going over 110 pitches in a game before.  Was an easy PASS

Excellent points and very true.  I didn't fade Buchholz every game in his last 4 just waiting for regression, because like you said, it could come at any time.  Those situations just weren't right to do so and glad I didn't as Red Sox won all 4 of his last 4 starts.  But today, coming off a 127 pitch outing, and facing a potent lineup that is averaging 5.5 rpg at home, I feel the situation is right to 'fade' him. 

Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:

This week Vegas gets butchered!!!!!!

Thanks for the write ups Bo  

haha..sure hope so!

Tribe tuff @ Home...

GL BODIO on the Indians

Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:

stay clear of the deer today guys 

but the deer are 11-4 last 15 games

Quote Originally Posted by Dougheyez:

GL Bodio. Im with ya on White Sox, but the Indians/Red Sox make me nervous. This home series againt the Sox are going to tell ALOT about this team. I think they might get a reality check. I kind of like the over though. Whatcha think?  

Not sure about the total.  I have the posted # as right-on.