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Bodio's MLB Mon 05/23

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by iNeedSomePicks:

whats your take on tonights nhl game... over or under 5.5????

UNDER
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

Thoughts on St Louis -120?  Line looks very appealing at first glance.  I assume you have good reason for passing, you always do

Hmmm.. I can't really remember.  Maybe the 6+ ERA against SD for Lohse, but that should really be an issue here.  This is a different SD lineup.  Holiday will most likely be out for this one but even so, Cards have enough firepower in their lineup.  To be honest with you, I'm not sure why I passed on the Redbirds.  Hmmm...Still some time to make a play..I'll have to look into this one again..
 
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Posted: #53
GL my friend
 
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Posted: #54
buena suerte amigo
 
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Posted: #55

hey bodio, respect your thoughts, but a few things.

You mention buchholz regressing, and while that is probable, I think that is already taken into consideration.  His expected era in May has been low (around 2.90).  You also fail to mention that the Indians offense will regress.  Without sizemore and hafner in, I still have them below average offensively and Boston has the best offense in baseball (or true talent level at least).  Cleveland is also a much better park to hit in if you are a left-hander and the Bosox have quite a few of those.  The Buchholz 127 pitches thing is a little scary, but Boston still has edge in every category tonight and I'd probably call the starters a wash.  Tread lightly here my friend.

 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by gcnmoo:

hey bodio, respect your thoughts, but a few things.

You mention buchholz regressing, and while that is probable, I think that is already taken into consideration.  His expected era in May has been low (around 2.90).  You also fail to mention that the Indians offense will regress.  Without sizemore and hafner in, I still have them below average offensively and Boston has the best offense in baseball (or true talent level at least).  Cleveland is also a much better park to hit in if you are a left-hander and the Bosox have quite a few of those.  The Buchholz 127 pitches thing is a little scary, but Boston still has edge in every category tonight and I'd probably call the starters a wash.  Tread lightly here my friend.



Valid points... just one quick thing.. you mention Cleveland's offense regressing with Sizemore out.  Sizemore's replacement, Brantley, is hitting .296 with four homers, six steals, 25 runs and 22 RBI
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:

Thoughts on St Louis -120?  Line looks very appealing at first glance.  I assume you have good reason for passing, you always do

5alighn just something to think about...STL just finished a brutal series, just played a game that was 6 hours and used their whole pen. Now traveling across country to play SD at home.  

As soon as I woke up this morning I was looking to fade STL because of that factor.....along with the fact LVL is on SD.  I wouldn't go near STL with a 10 foot pole IMO
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by gcnmoo:

hey bodio, respect your thoughts, but a few things.

You mention buchholz regressing, and while that is probable, I think that is already taken into consideration.  His expected era in May has been low (around 2.90).  You also fail to mention that the Indians offense will regress.  Without sizemore and hafner in, I still have them below average offensively and Boston has the best offense in baseball (or true talent level at least).  Cleveland is also a much better park to hit in if you are a left-hander and the Bosox have quite a few of those.  The Buchholz 127 pitches thing is a little scary, but Boston still has edge in every category tonight and I'd probably call the starters a wash.  Tread lightly here my friend.


Very good point about Indians' hitters regressing.  That is true, but it hasn't happened yet.  I agree that RedSox O is scary, but Masterson has done well against them.  I'm not sure if I agree that starting pitchers are a wash as I consider Masterson to be much better.  I would also give an edge to Indians' bullpen.  Finally, the fact that the Tribe are playing at home, while Boston had to travel late after last night's game, is another factor that favors Cleveland.  Good discussion.  GL today
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:


5alighn just something to think about...STL just finished a brutal series, just played a game that was 6 hours and used their whole pen. Now traveling across country to play SD at home.  

As soon as I woke up this morning I was looking to fade STL because of that factor.....along with the fact LVL is on SD.  I wouldn't go near STL with a 10 foot pole IMO

Yeah, I think the BP playing like crap and traveling to the West Coast were the 2 factors why I laid off this one...
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by Barbosa212:


5alighn just something to think about...STL just finished a brutal series, just played a game that was 6 hours and used their whole pen. Now traveling across country to play SD at home.  

As soon as I woke up this morning I was looking to fade STL because of that factor.....along with the fact LVL is on SD.  I wouldn't go near STL with a 10 foot pole IMO


Nice insight... I didn't even think of that Good enough reason for me to pass.  And I did see LVL on the Pads which def made me hit the brakes this morning on the Cards.
 
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Posted: #61
Best of Luck 
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:

White Sox again??  just playing...I like that call  GL BOD's 

"You can put it on the board...........YES!!!!!!!!!"


HE HUNG IT

AND HE HIT IT!!!!
 
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Posted: #63

Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:



Valid points... just one quick thing.. you mention Cleveland's offense regressing with Sizemore out.  Sizemore's replacement, Brantley, is hitting .296 with four homers, six steals, 25 runs and 22 RBI

Brantley will regress some most likely and he is not sizemore's replacement.  He is just taking over his position in CF (which is a big downgrade defensively).  Kearns has taken over in LF for the most part.

 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Very good point about Indians' hitters regressing.  That is true, but it hasn't happened yet.  I agree that RedSox O is scary, but Masterson has done well against them.  I'm not sure if I agree that starting pitchers are a wash as I consider Masterson to be much better.  I would also give an edge to Indians' bullpen.  Finally, the fact that the Tribe are playing at home, while Boston had to travel late after last night's game, is another factor that favors Cleveland.  Good discussion.  GL today

 

Indians bullpen xFIP is 4.13 to bosox 3.68 xFIP.  Bard/Papelbon is obvoiusly a better combo than anything the Indians have.  Buchholz career era is much lower than masterson and Masterson has always had BIG problems getting leftys out and he's gonna face a ton of em today.  Masterson always seems to underperform his peripherals so you'd think some major regression is coming.

 
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Posted: #65
Red Sox get some revenge tonight for earlier this year but like the Pale Sox, BOL
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by gcnmoo:

 

Indians bullpen xFIP is 4.13 to bosox 3.68 xFIP.  Bard/Papelbon is obvoiusly a better combo than anything the Indians have.  Buchholz career era is much lower than masterson and Masterson has always had BIG problems getting leftys out and he's gonna face a ton of em today.  Masterson always seems to underperform his peripherals so you'd think some major regression is coming.

Looks like all I've got left is the schedule/travel angle and home field advantage for the Tribe!  :) 

Great info by the way.  Thank you for sharing.

I'm going to roll with the Tribe still, but for those on the fence, you should definitely consider Gcnmoo's points here...

 
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Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by gcnmoo:

Brantley will regress some most likely and he is not sizemore's replacement.  He is just taking over his position in CF (which is a big downgrade defensively).  Kearns has taken over in LF for the most part.



Youre right...  and Kearns isn't very good IMO
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

Looks like all I've got left is the schedule/travel angle and home field advantage for the Tribe!  :) 

Great info by the way.  Thank you for sharing.

I'm going to roll with the Tribe still, but for those on the fence, you should definitely consider Gcnmoo's points here...



I was just thinking the same thing.  Masterson's trouble with lefties, as he pointed out is worrisome .  Still have the fact that Masterson has handled this lineup in the past, albeit a small sample size.
 
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Posted: #69
Can't forget about Buchz career high pitch count last time out and the moneyline is on Cleveland's side.
 
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Posted: #70

very solid picks. Does Hamilton and Cruz coming back worry you though?

kinda worries me  

 
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Posted: #71
GL Bodio
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by EIGHTYpercent:

very solid picks. Does Hamilton and Cruz coming back worry you though?

kinda worries me  


Not that much.  Those guys haven't been in the lineup for awhile and I expect them, as well as their teammates, to go through an 'adjustment' period.  
 
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Posted: #74
bol bodio
 
 
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Posted: #75
Bo I think you picked the most highly contested/debated games of the night to bet on 
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