Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
44 - 28 @ 61% for +13.75 Units
Thur, 05/05
#1: New York Mets -105
First of all, Pelfrey's advanced stats aren't as impressive as Sanchez'. But one thing that stands out is the +2.56 E-F and a .364 BABIP, 6th UNluckiest in the league. Pelfrey is due for some major regression to the positive, and I expect that to start today against this 'weak-hitting' Giants lineup. Giants are only averaging 3.8 rpg on the road and 3.9 rpg against right-handed starters. The current Giants hitters are averaging .269 off him with .333 OBP and .692 OPS. I know Pelfrey is coming off a poor outing in which he only threw 72 pitches, but I expect him to rebound today at home, where in 12 innings pitched he's given up 11 hits but only 4 ER's this season (1-0 record).
Sanchez is coming off an outing in which he threw 103 pitches in only 5 innings, issuing 6 walks in the process. He did have 7 K's and only allowed 2 hits, but his inefficiencty is bound to catch up. The Mets are batting .277 off him with .364 OBP and .841 OPS. The high OBP is due to him issuing 10 BB's to only 14K's in the games he's faced them in. That's part of the reason why the Mets are 5-1 when facing Sanchez. In his 2 starts against them last year, he gave up 6 ER's, 13 hits, and 4 HR"s in 14 innings pitched. Mets are averaging 5.1 rpg off lefty-starters and I expect them to get some runs off Sanchez today.
On the season, Mets are 6-2 against lefty-starters and 3-1 lifetime when Pelfrey is on the mound against the Giants. I expect Pelfrey to pitch well at home, especially since he didn't even crack 80 pitches in his last start. Giants will most likely not have Wilson available tonight as he's pitched 2 days in a row, and I like this spot for the Mets to grab a home win and avoid a series sweep.
#2: Tampa Bay Rays -168
Price has already faced the Jays once this year, giving up 4 ER's and 2 HR's in that one, but still getting a win. What is interesting is that Bautista accounted for 2 of those runs and both HR's, as he went 3 for 3 off Price in that one. Well, Bautista is out of the lineup for the Jays today. The rest of the Jays' hitters are batting .223 off Price with 2 HR's and 9 RBI's in 94 at-bats with a 20 to 9 K/BB ratio. After a poor outing his last time-out, I expect Price to be very solid today.
Drabek has been struggling with his control lately issuing 10 BB's to only 8 K's in his last 3 starts. I know the Rays lineup hasn't seen him before, but as poorly as he's pitching right now, one time through the lineup should be enough to get a feel for him. In his last 3 starts, Drabek has allowed 12 ER's and 2 HR's in 14 innings pitched. He has an ERA of 7.9 and WHIP of 2 in that span.
David Price is 7-0 (team is 8-0) in his 8 career starts against the Blue Jays. He has an ERA of 2.30 against them with a WHIP of 1.1. I expect him to remain perfect today.
#3: Cleveland Indians +164
Purely a 'value' play here. Indians are 6-3 against left-handed starters, averaging 6.4 rpg with OBP of .361. A's are 9-13 against right-handed starters, averaging 2.9 rpg with OBP of .282. That's a variance of 3.5 rpg. Gomez is nothing special, but A's have never seen him before. He does have an FIP of 3.43 and xFIP of 4.24 this season. With +2.81 E-F and .396 BABIP, he's been very 'unlucky' and bound to improve on those numbers. I feel it's worth a shot taking a better overall team at this price.
Good luck!
44 - 28 @ 61% for +13.75 Units
Thur, 05/05
#1: New York Mets -105
First of all, Pelfrey's advanced stats aren't as impressive as Sanchez'. But one thing that stands out is the +2.56 E-F and a .364 BABIP, 6th UNluckiest in the league. Pelfrey is due for some major regression to the positive, and I expect that to start today against this 'weak-hitting' Giants lineup. Giants are only averaging 3.8 rpg on the road and 3.9 rpg against right-handed starters. The current Giants hitters are averaging .269 off him with .333 OBP and .692 OPS. I know Pelfrey is coming off a poor outing in which he only threw 72 pitches, but I expect him to rebound today at home, where in 12 innings pitched he's given up 11 hits but only 4 ER's this season (1-0 record).
Sanchez is coming off an outing in which he threw 103 pitches in only 5 innings, issuing 6 walks in the process. He did have 7 K's and only allowed 2 hits, but his inefficiencty is bound to catch up. The Mets are batting .277 off him with .364 OBP and .841 OPS. The high OBP is due to him issuing 10 BB's to only 14K's in the games he's faced them in. That's part of the reason why the Mets are 5-1 when facing Sanchez. In his 2 starts against them last year, he gave up 6 ER's, 13 hits, and 4 HR"s in 14 innings pitched. Mets are averaging 5.1 rpg off lefty-starters and I expect them to get some runs off Sanchez today.
On the season, Mets are 6-2 against lefty-starters and 3-1 lifetime when Pelfrey is on the mound against the Giants. I expect Pelfrey to pitch well at home, especially since he didn't even crack 80 pitches in his last start. Giants will most likely not have Wilson available tonight as he's pitched 2 days in a row, and I like this spot for the Mets to grab a home win and avoid a series sweep.
#2: Tampa Bay Rays -168
Price has already faced the Jays once this year, giving up 4 ER's and 2 HR's in that one, but still getting a win. What is interesting is that Bautista accounted for 2 of those runs and both HR's, as he went 3 for 3 off Price in that one. Well, Bautista is out of the lineup for the Jays today. The rest of the Jays' hitters are batting .223 off Price with 2 HR's and 9 RBI's in 94 at-bats with a 20 to 9 K/BB ratio. After a poor outing his last time-out, I expect Price to be very solid today.
Drabek has been struggling with his control lately issuing 10 BB's to only 8 K's in his last 3 starts. I know the Rays lineup hasn't seen him before, but as poorly as he's pitching right now, one time through the lineup should be enough to get a feel for him. In his last 3 starts, Drabek has allowed 12 ER's and 2 HR's in 14 innings pitched. He has an ERA of 7.9 and WHIP of 2 in that span.
David Price is 7-0 (team is 8-0) in his 8 career starts against the Blue Jays. He has an ERA of 2.30 against them with a WHIP of 1.1. I expect him to remain perfect today.
#3: Cleveland Indians +164
Purely a 'value' play here. Indians are 6-3 against left-handed starters, averaging 6.4 rpg with OBP of .361. A's are 9-13 against right-handed starters, averaging 2.9 rpg with OBP of .282. That's a variance of 3.5 rpg. Gomez is nothing special, but A's have never seen him before. He does have an FIP of 3.43 and xFIP of 4.24 this season. With +2.81 E-F and .396 BABIP, he's been very 'unlucky' and bound to improve on those numbers. I feel it's worth a shot taking a better overall team at this price.
Good luck!
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
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