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Bodio's MLB Thur 06/16

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Posted: #26
GL Bodio
 
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Posted: #27
GL today bodio
 
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Posted: #28
BOL today! 
 
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Posted: #30
Thanks for the picks yesterday (4-1) eh!
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Smoke_O:

STL    

There is a reason the line plummeted 30 cents since it released. This Cardinal team is in free-fall and the Nats are a better team right now. Better defense by far! better starting pitching, better bullpen by far, and on par hitting. The Cards will get swept in DC tonight

g/l on the rest of your plays


"right now" eh?  I don't focus too much on short-term performance streaks as I find them irrelevant pretty much in baseball.  (see a post 2 days ago as we had a good discussion regarding that in there).  Starting pitching and hitting are clear advantages to the Cards.  BP is a slight advantage to the Nats, but it does increase today a bit since Nats' pen is rested and Cards' is not (definitely a risk area for today's game).  Defensively both teams are similar so no advantage either way.. Just need to move Pujols back to 1st!  Overall, Cardinals are a better team IMO.
 
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Posted: #33
GL today Bodio! Great day yesterday!
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by The_True:

rangers
phillies
orioles
pirates
tigers
brewers
white sox
cardinals
braves
rays

that was initial jus by glancing at the games
but upon further reveiw i like marlins and twins instead of phillies and white sox

would love to hear from ya gl today bodio

tough to back White Sox against Minnesota that's for sure.  Twinkies or nothing in that one. 

Lee is a bit over-valued of course, but Vazquez is unbackable, especially since PHilly O is beginning to perform up to their expectations.  I have them ranked as #22 with YTD numbers, but with them getting healthy, they should improve as the season goes on.  Twinkies -- worth a look for sure.  Florida - PASS.  

GL!
 
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Posted: #35
gl Bodio.....
 
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Posted: #36
are u not worry about the big public on cards and the odds droop 30 cents?
 
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Posted: #37
BOL 
 
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Posted: #38
GOOD MORNING BODIO,

WHAT DO YOU THINK TAKE PHIL AND NYY FOR MORNING GAMES?
TOO RISKY FOR PHIL....???

I NEED YOUR INPUT SIR
 
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Posted: #39
Bodio....what's your lean on the total in the Brewers game...?


 
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Posted: #40

*BOL* today, bodio! 

 

 GiL

 
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Posted: #41
GL BODIO

 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by eknilb:

are u not worry about the big public on cards and the odds droop 30 cents?

I don't really 'cap' baseball like that.  2 days ago the odds dropped on Cards also and they had a 6-2 lead late in that one.  Obviously BP imploded.  

You think ROM should be something I should look at when handicapping baseball? (I do rely on it in NHL and WNBA )
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by krman32:

GOOD MORNING BODIO,

WHAT DO YOU THINK TAKE PHIL AND NYY FOR MORNING GAMES?
TOO RISKY FOR PHIL....???

I NEED YOUR INPUT SIR

sorry.  Saw this too late.  GL!
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by nepatriots_12:

Bodio....what's your lean on the total in the Brewers game...?



lean UNDER
 
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Posted: #45
over is the better bet in the brew crew game
last couple of totals for both pitchers super over
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


sorry.  Saw this too late.  GL!

IT'S ALL GOOD...I GOT YANKS...
ANYWAY....WHAT DO YOU THINK SFG UNDER AND TAMPA TONIGHT??
 
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Posted: #47
not sure if i should pull the trigger on the brewers or not. I didnt yesterday and now i regret it. Ive noticed they have become a favourite for you, playing them a lot, and for good reason they are on a tear. Keep up the good work
 
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Posted: #48
#1: Houston Astros -110
Lyles is a type of a pitcher that won't overpower you but he'll keep the walks to a minimum and force the hitter to put the ball in play.  Playing at Houston and against a weak-hitting Pirates lineup, he's a decent pitcher to 'back'.  His solid 4.0 K/BB ratio and 3.1 tERA (#28th), indicate the fact that he's not the type to 'beat' himself.  McDonald, on the other hand, is the type that can load the bases up at any time.  His 1.62 K/BB ratio is terrible and his 4.66 FIP and 4.46 xFIP are some of the worst in the majors.  Combine that with 4.9 tERA (#159th) and 38% GB%, and I can see him getting 'lit-up' today.  Besides starting pitching, HOU has an advantage in hitting and even BP (#7 xFIP compared to #10 xFIP for PIT).  I'll grab them at these short-odds to avoid a sweep at home.


#2: Milwaukee Brewers -124
Not going to over-think this one.  Same story as the last 2 nights:  better hitting, better BP, better fielding and a better starting pitcher for the Brew Crew.  Garza has very solid advanced stats, but Greinke's are just a tad better.  That's good enough for me.


#3: St Louis Cardinals -104
Holliday is back in the lineup for the Cards and he'll provide more 'pop' to the 3rd best lineup in the majors.  The real difference here is starting pitching:  Lohse 3.17 FIp / 3.67 xFIP / 3.5 tERA compared to Lannan 4.36 FIP / 4.31 xFIP / 4.8 tERA.  I know Lannan has pitched 'well' the last couple of starts but look at the teams he faced.  Neither one is as potent offensively as the Cards.  BP is a 'risk' in this one so 5-innings could be worth a look.  Either way, I like St Louis to avoid a 'sweep' in this one.

#4: Atlanta Braves -120
Another team that is trying to avoid a sweep -- NO, I didn't plan this.  Capped the matchups first and only after saw that 3 of my 4 selections are in 'sweep-avoidance' scenarios.  Either way, Minor has been pitching well lately and Mets have never seen him before.  At the same time, ATL is getting Heyward back in this one which can only help their slumping lineup.  I see a close game here, with ATL's BP being a big advantage in the later innings.  Braves avoid a 'sweep'.

Good luck! 

 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by krman32:


IT'S ALL GOOD...I GOT YANKS...
ANYWAY....WHAT DO YOU THINK SFG UNDER AND TAMPA TONIGHT??

Tampa was my LAST strong lean to get eliminated tonight.  I almost played them but then decided that going against the BoSox might not be a very good idea.  

UNDER is always the place to look with SFG, but the fact that they're playing in Arizona makes it tough to take that total.  It's a 'hitters' park.  Check the weather, but I'd stay away from the total in that one.
 
 
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Posted: #50
I tend to think that line movement matters even more in baseball than most sports because of the fact that the average baseball joe schmoe doesn't care if a game is -120 or -130. Also, the average handle for a random baseball game is smaller than that of the NBA or NFL. The line movement is even more a tell of sharp action in MLB.
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