Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
95 - 82 @ 53% for +2.29 Units
Thur, 06/23
#1: Minnesota Twins +155
Something is 'off' with Lincecum right now - 9 walks in his last 10 innings pitched with 12 hits and 9 ER's in that span. Now he gets to face one of the hottest teams in the majors. At the same time, Duensing has numbers which are similar to the Freak: 3.43 FIP (3.01 for TL); 3.81 xFIP (3.06 TL); 3.8 tERA (3.3 TL); 2.52 K/BB ratio (2.81 TL). Looking at the numbers closer, Duensing has a .331 BABIP which is very unlucky. Even in his last 3 starts, he has a teriffic 11 K's to only 3 BB's ratio but also 20 hits in 16 innings pitched. Against a poor hitting team like the Giants, I expect Duensing's numbers to regress further to the positive. I know Giants have a superior BP, but Minny's relievers are well-rested here, and have actually the 2nd best ERA in June (1.91), right behind the Giants (1.83). San Fran is 1-5 in their last 6 games, while Minnesota is 5-1 in that span. A ton of 'value' on the Twinkies in this one.
#2: UNDER 8 ARZ/KCR -110
Everyone knows that Hudson is a 'stud' and the fact that he's never faced the Royals is just another advantage that he has, especially in the first couple of at-bats. What people might not know is that Paulino is not too bad this year either: 2.81 FIP (#17); 3.67 xFIP (#74); 3.0 tERA (#11). His 7.15 K/9 is very solid (Hudson is at 7.66) and will be a factor against a Diamondbacks lineup that is 4th highest in strike-out rate. The O/U is 5-10 in all of Hudson's starts this year and 0-2 in Paulino's starts at home. My model has this one at 6.7 total runs and even though I missed 8.5, I still like this play enough at the current number, since we'd need a total of 9 to lose this one.
Good luck!
95 - 82 @ 53% for +2.29 Units
Thur, 06/23
#1: Minnesota Twins +155
Something is 'off' with Lincecum right now - 9 walks in his last 10 innings pitched with 12 hits and 9 ER's in that span. Now he gets to face one of the hottest teams in the majors. At the same time, Duensing has numbers which are similar to the Freak: 3.43 FIP (3.01 for TL); 3.81 xFIP (3.06 TL); 3.8 tERA (3.3 TL); 2.52 K/BB ratio (2.81 TL). Looking at the numbers closer, Duensing has a .331 BABIP which is very unlucky. Even in his last 3 starts, he has a teriffic 11 K's to only 3 BB's ratio but also 20 hits in 16 innings pitched. Against a poor hitting team like the Giants, I expect Duensing's numbers to regress further to the positive. I know Giants have a superior BP, but Minny's relievers are well-rested here, and have actually the 2nd best ERA in June (1.91), right behind the Giants (1.83). San Fran is 1-5 in their last 6 games, while Minnesota is 5-1 in that span. A ton of 'value' on the Twinkies in this one.
#2: UNDER 8 ARZ/KCR -110
Everyone knows that Hudson is a 'stud' and the fact that he's never faced the Royals is just another advantage that he has, especially in the first couple of at-bats. What people might not know is that Paulino is not too bad this year either: 2.81 FIP (#17); 3.67 xFIP (#74); 3.0 tERA (#11). His 7.15 K/9 is very solid (Hudson is at 7.66) and will be a factor against a Diamondbacks lineup that is 4th highest in strike-out rate. The O/U is 5-10 in all of Hudson's starts this year and 0-2 in Paulino's starts at home. My model has this one at 6.7 total runs and even though I missed 8.5, I still like this play enough at the current number, since we'd need a total of 9 to lose this one.
Good luck!
_________________
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