Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
153 - 127 @ 54% for +10.89 Units
Thur 08/18
#1: Washington Nationals -135
Yesterday I was on Cincy, but today we'll switch gears here. The starting pitcher discrepancy is too great to ignore. I'm not going to regurgitate all the relevant advanced metrics, but Zimm is worth more than 35 cents at home in this matchup. I have Washington winning this game 60% of the time, thus warranting a -150 line. Either way, Zimm is making his first career start against Cincy, and thus has the 'unfamiliarity' factor in his favor. At the same time Cincy is not as good against righties as they are against left-handers. If you remember, I mentioned yesterday that Cincy is #2 against lefties in MLB. Well, against right-handers this team is #18th in MLB, which is below-average. Arroyo is definitely declining quickly this year with his fastball hovering around 87 mph, a decrease from last season. He's already allowed 33 homers on the year and is now dealing with a sore achilles tendon stemming from a play in his last start. It doesn't help that he's coming off 120 pitches, the most he's thrown all season long. Nats have the 9th best home-record this year, while Cincy has won 44% of their roadies, ranked 20th worst. Nasty Nats get the call here.
#2: Atlanta Braves +119
For those who complain that I play too many favorites, here you go, a nice little home-doggie for you! Just kidding of course, as I could care less if it's a favorite or a dog as long as I end up with + Units at the end of the season. Either way, this one might not be a very popular play today. Let me explain the rationale. First of all, Lincecum is a beast. I know it and everyone knows it. His stats are incredible and the guy is a 'baller'. That being said, he can't win games all on his own. That's where the issues come in. This Giants offense is completely decimated with injuries. Even a backup catcher, Eli Whiteside, will most likely sit today after getting hit on the head yesterday and feeling dizziness. Giants will have their #3 catcher in there today, Chris Stewart, a career .207 hitter. At the same time Jeff Keppinger is most likely out as well, as he's been diagnosed with a bone-bruise and instructed to rest for a few games by the doctor. So what lineup can we expect to see today? Well, I would expect something like this:
1. Cody Ross (R) CF -- hitting .239 this year
2. Mike Fontenot (L) 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B -- Career .341 wOBA from the right side / .367 wOBA from the left
4. Aubrey Huff (L) 1B
5. Nate Schierholtz (L) RF
6. Orlando Cabrera (R) SS -- .240 BA this year
7. Brandon Belt (L) LF
8. Chris Stewart (R) C -- .207 hitter
I've only included stats for right-handed batters. The rest of the offense for the Giants are left-handed. Unfortunately for them, they'll be facing a young lefty pitcher in Mike Minor. This will be Minor's first career start against the Giants, thus the 'unfamiliarity' factor is in play. At the same time, Minor has been filthy against lefties in his short MLB career, with 11.66 K/9 (3.17 K/BB) against them and a very solid 3.39 xFIP. Against righties, he has a respectable 7.77 K/9 (2.65 K/BB) with a 3.75 xFIP, still very solid. Minor has put together a number of solid starts, and besides games against the New York Mets (9 ER's in 10 innings) he's been very good lately. Throw in the fact that the Giants are the 3rd worst offensive team against lefties this year, and I see a very solid outing for Minor today.
I mentioned this in one of my previous write-ups, but Atlanta is 2nd worst against lefties this year, right below the Giants. The good news for them though is that they won't be facing a lefty. They are actually ranked #12 offensively against right-handers on the season. Lincecum is 1-2 against ATL in his last 3 starts against them, and he already got rocked by them once this season, allowing 5 ER's on 6 hits and issuing 6 walks in that one. And if Lincecum runs into trouble, Giant's bullpen might not be there to save him as they're dealing with injuries of their own. Both Wilson (their closer) and Romo (not the Cowboys QB!!), one of their better relievers, will be out today.
I know in a long run it's not smart to fade a stud like Lincecum, but when I could get a better team in Atlanta at home at + odds like this, with as weak as Timmy's supporting cast is today, I will take my chances.
#3: Cleveland Indians -113
Fading my White Sox in this one. I love Masterson and anytime I could get him at close to even odds, it's worth a play. Masterson has been excellent against Chicago this year allowing 3 ER's in 22 innings pitched (3 starts) for a 1.23 ERA. Opposite him is Humber and although this is his first career start against the Tribe, I can't overlook the fact that he's allowed 4+ ER's in 5 straight starts. The guy has never thrown more than 149 innings in his career so he might be wearing out a bit. Either way, I'll take my chances fading a pitcher who has allowed 40 hits in his last 25 innings pitched. It also doesn't hurt that the White Sox are the 5th worst team at home this year.
153 - 127 @ 54% for +10.89 Units
Thur 08/18
#1: Washington Nationals -135
Yesterday I was on Cincy, but today we'll switch gears here. The starting pitcher discrepancy is too great to ignore. I'm not going to regurgitate all the relevant advanced metrics, but Zimm is worth more than 35 cents at home in this matchup. I have Washington winning this game 60% of the time, thus warranting a -150 line. Either way, Zimm is making his first career start against Cincy, and thus has the 'unfamiliarity' factor in his favor. At the same time Cincy is not as good against righties as they are against left-handers. If you remember, I mentioned yesterday that Cincy is #2 against lefties in MLB. Well, against right-handers this team is #18th in MLB, which is below-average. Arroyo is definitely declining quickly this year with his fastball hovering around 87 mph, a decrease from last season. He's already allowed 33 homers on the year and is now dealing with a sore achilles tendon stemming from a play in his last start. It doesn't help that he's coming off 120 pitches, the most he's thrown all season long. Nats have the 9th best home-record this year, while Cincy has won 44% of their roadies, ranked 20th worst. Nasty Nats get the call here.
#2: Atlanta Braves +119
For those who complain that I play too many favorites, here you go, a nice little home-doggie for you! Just kidding of course, as I could care less if it's a favorite or a dog as long as I end up with + Units at the end of the season. Either way, this one might not be a very popular play today. Let me explain the rationale. First of all, Lincecum is a beast. I know it and everyone knows it. His stats are incredible and the guy is a 'baller'. That being said, he can't win games all on his own. That's where the issues come in. This Giants offense is completely decimated with injuries. Even a backup catcher, Eli Whiteside, will most likely sit today after getting hit on the head yesterday and feeling dizziness. Giants will have their #3 catcher in there today, Chris Stewart, a career .207 hitter. At the same time Jeff Keppinger is most likely out as well, as he's been diagnosed with a bone-bruise and instructed to rest for a few games by the doctor. So what lineup can we expect to see today? Well, I would expect something like this:
1. Cody Ross (R) CF -- hitting .239 this year
2. Mike Fontenot (L) 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B -- Career .341 wOBA from the right side / .367 wOBA from the left
4. Aubrey Huff (L) 1B
5. Nate Schierholtz (L) RF
6. Orlando Cabrera (R) SS -- .240 BA this year
7. Brandon Belt (L) LF
8. Chris Stewart (R) C -- .207 hitter
I've only included stats for right-handed batters. The rest of the offense for the Giants are left-handed. Unfortunately for them, they'll be facing a young lefty pitcher in Mike Minor. This will be Minor's first career start against the Giants, thus the 'unfamiliarity' factor is in play. At the same time, Minor has been filthy against lefties in his short MLB career, with 11.66 K/9 (3.17 K/BB) against them and a very solid 3.39 xFIP. Against righties, he has a respectable 7.77 K/9 (2.65 K/BB) with a 3.75 xFIP, still very solid. Minor has put together a number of solid starts, and besides games against the New York Mets (9 ER's in 10 innings) he's been very good lately. Throw in the fact that the Giants are the 3rd worst offensive team against lefties this year, and I see a very solid outing for Minor today.
I mentioned this in one of my previous write-ups, but Atlanta is 2nd worst against lefties this year, right below the Giants. The good news for them though is that they won't be facing a lefty. They are actually ranked #12 offensively against right-handers on the season. Lincecum is 1-2 against ATL in his last 3 starts against them, and he already got rocked by them once this season, allowing 5 ER's on 6 hits and issuing 6 walks in that one. And if Lincecum runs into trouble, Giant's bullpen might not be there to save him as they're dealing with injuries of their own. Both Wilson (their closer) and Romo (not the Cowboys QB!!), one of their better relievers, will be out today.
I know in a long run it's not smart to fade a stud like Lincecum, but when I could get a better team in Atlanta at home at + odds like this, with as weak as Timmy's supporting cast is today, I will take my chances.
#3: Cleveland Indians -113
Fading my White Sox in this one. I love Masterson and anytime I could get him at close to even odds, it's worth a play. Masterson has been excellent against Chicago this year allowing 3 ER's in 22 innings pitched (3 starts) for a 1.23 ERA. Opposite him is Humber and although this is his first career start against the Tribe, I can't overlook the fact that he's allowed 4+ ER's in 5 straight starts. The guy has never thrown more than 149 innings in his career so he might be wearing out a bit. Either way, I'll take my chances fading a pitcher who has allowed 40 hits in his last 25 innings pitched. It also doesn't hurt that the White Sox are the 5th worst team at home this year.
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