All Forums | MLB Betting

Bodio's MLB Thur 08/18

...

Participants:

Search

Posts: 136

ad1260

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 8133

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 7:57 PM ET #51

GL man....but now I'm terrified, I like Cincy and CWS at plus money

0

LawDog

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 3535

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 8:40 PM ET #52

CC better get his shit together

0

Dahmer

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 449

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 9:07 PM ET #53

Bodio, thanks for the killer picks!

Curious what your lean was for the Toronto vs Oakland w/ a 45 at the skull?

BOL and thanks again

0

eknilb

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 1175

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 9:42 PM ET #54

one down 3 to go

0

DDH420

MVP

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 15506

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 9:50 PM ET #55

Hey BOD's just came in to talk some run support with ya lolol

kidding buddy and thanx for your patience with me yesterday

BOL tonight on the fairly large card for you from what I've seen.
Glad you like the Bravos I went +1.5 to the U 7 +210 and have the YANKS -1.5 to JAYS -1.5. Hopefully we are both celebrating by nights end. Oh and did ya get a lil sum sum on the ARG-BLOWS ??

0

DDH420

MVP

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 15506

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 10:36 PM ET #56

HOLY SHNIKIES SASK drops the ball in the endzone that would have completed a SH comeback to win where they were down 21-1 late. PHEWWWWWWWWWW NO SWEAT

Heres a quick breakdown of the game and my bets,it was a fun one. I had T.O-1.5 FH (W) and T.O FH-1.5 to the O 26.5 +270 (L) so I was dead even at the half with T.O-3 X2.5 units for the entire game pending. But SASK had given T.O every opportunity in the world to put them away BUT they were only down 14-0 at the half so I thought they would tighten it up and after being down 20 heading into the 4th they were a drop away from winning outright. He caught the ball and it popped out as he came down hard on his back.

Still overall it's 3-1 +5.2 units tonight for 3 down ball and 8-2 +17.95 units L10 for CFL all documented here on covers.

WHAT A GAME but glad I was

all night or my ticker woulda been floating outta my chest. Somewhere in the world my future cardiologist's ears are burning

0

LawDog

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 3535

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 10:37 PM ET #57

cmon CC

0

LawDog

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 3535

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 10:48 PM ET #58

Nats

Bravos

Yanks

Jays

0

LawDog

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 3535

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 10:49 PM ET #59

Forgot Tribe

0

bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:22 PM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Hey BOD's just came in to talk some run support with ya lolol

kidding buddy and thanx for your patience with me yesterday

BOL tonight on the fairly large card for you from what I've seen.
Glad you like the Bravos I went +1.5 to the U 7 +210 and have the YANKS -1.5 to JAYS -1.5. Hopefully we are both celebrating by nights end. Oh and did ya get a lil sum sum on the ARG-BLOWS ??

Hey buddy. Thanks for that Toronto play. Great call

You're now 3-1 for +1.9 Units on your POW's in CFL.
Will be waiting for your POW next week!

Great job!

0

bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:23 PM ET #61

Let's go BOMBERS!!!!!!!!!!!!

0

Coach19

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 5643

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:24 PM ET #62

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
153 - 127 @ 54% for +10.89 Units

Thur 08/18

#1: Washington Nationals -135

Yesterday I was on Cincy, but today we'll switch gears here. The starting pitcher discrepancy is too great to ignore. I'm not going to regurgitate all the relevant advanced metrics, but Zimm is worth more than 35 cents at home in this matchup. I have Washington winning this game 60% of the time, thus warranting a -150 line. Either way, Zimm is making his first career start against Cincy, and thus has the 'unfamiliarity' factor in his favor. At the same time Cincy is not as good against righties as they are against left-handers. If you remember, I mentioned yesterday that Cincy is #2 against lefties in MLB. Well, against right-handers this team is #18th in MLB, which is below-average. Arroyo is definitely declining quickly this year with his fastball hovering around 87 mph, a decrease from last season. He's already allowed 33 homers on the year and is now dealing with a sore achilles tendon stemming from a play in his last start. It doesn't help that he's coming off 120 pitches, the most he's thrown all season long. Nats have the 9th best home-record this year, while Cincy has won 44% of their roadies, ranked 20th worst. Nasty Nats get the call here.

#2: Atlanta Braves +119

For those who complain that I play too many favorites, here you go, a nice little home-doggie for you! Just kidding of course, as I could care less if it's a favorite or a dog as long as I end up with + Units at the end of the season. Either way, this one might not be a very popular play today. Let me explain the rationale. First of all, Lincecum is a beast. I know it and everyone knows it. His stats are incredible and the guy is a 'baller'. That being said, he can't win games all on his own. That's where the issues come in. This Giants offense is completely decimated with injuries. Even a backup catcher, Eli Whiteside, will most likely sit today after getting hit on the head yesterday and feeling dizziness. Giants will have their #3 catcher in there today, Chris Stewart, a career .207 hitter. At the same time Jeff Keppinger is most likely out as well, as he's been diagnosed with a bone-bruise and instructed to rest for a few games by the doctor. So what lineup can we expect to see today? Well, I would expect something like this:

1. Cody Ross (R) CF -- hitting .239 this year
2. Mike Fontenot (L) 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B -- Career .341 wOBA from the right side / .367 wOBA from the left
4. Aubrey Huff (L) 1B
5. Nate Schierholtz (L) RF
6. Orlando Cabrera (R) SS -- .240 BA this year
7. Brandon Belt (L) LF
8. Chris Stewart (R) C -- .207 hitter

I've only included stats for right-handed batters. The rest of the offense for the Giants are left-handed. Unfortunately for them, they'll be facing a young lefty pitcher in Mike Minor. This will be Minor's first career start against the Giants, thus the 'unfamiliarity' factor is in play. At the same time, Minor has been filthy against lefties in his short MLB career, with 11.66 K/9 (3.17 K/BB) against them and a very solid 3.39 xFIP. Against righties, he has a respectable 7.77 K/9 (2.65 K/BB) with a 3.75 xFIP, still very solid. Minor has put together a number of solid starts, and besides games against the New York Mets (9 ER's in 10 innings) he's been very good lately. Throw in the fact that the Giants are the 3rd worst offensive team against lefties this year, and I see a very solid outing for Minor today.

I mentioned this in one of my previous write-ups, but Atlanta is 2nd worst against lefties this year, right below the Giants. The good news for them though is that they won't be facing a lefty. They are actually ranked #12 offensively against right-handers on the season. Lincecum is 1-2 against ATL in his last 3 starts against them, and he already got rocked by them once this season, allowing 5 ER's on 6 hits and issuing 6 walks in that one. And if Lincecum runs into trouble, Giant's bullpen might not be there to save him as they're dealing with injuries of their own. Both Wilson (their closer) and Romo (not the Cowboys QB!!), one of their better relievers, will be out today.

I know in a long run it's not smart to fade a stud like Lincecum, but when I could get a better team in Atlanta at home at + odds like this, with as weak as Timmy's supporting cast is today, I will take my chances.

#3: Cleveland Indians -113

Fading my White Sox in this one. I love Masterson and anytime I could get him at close to even odds, it's worth a play. Masterson has been excellent against Chicago this year allowing 3 ER's in 22 innings pitched (3 starts) for a 1.23 ERA. Opposite him is Humber and although this is his first career start against the Tribe, I can't overlook the fact that he's allowed 4+ ER's in 5 straight starts. The guy has never thrown more than 149 innings in his career so he might be wearing out a bit. Either way, I'll take my chances fading a pitcher who has allowed 40 hits in his last 25 innings pitched. It also doesn't hurt that the White Sox are the 5th worst team at home this year.

0

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
153 - 127 @ 54% for +10.89 Units

Thur 08/18

#1: Washington Nationals -135

Yesterday I was on Cincy, but today we'll switch gears here. The starting pitcher discrepancy is too great to ignore. I'm not going to regurgitate all the relevant advanced metrics, but Zimm is worth more than 35 cents at home in this matchup. I have Washington winning this game 60% of the time, thus warranting a -150 line. Either way, Zimm is making his first career start against Cincy, and thus has the 'unfamiliarity' factor in his favor. At the same time Cincy is not as good against righties as they are against left-handers. If you remember, I mentioned yesterday that Cincy is #2 against lefties in MLB. Well, against right-handers this team is #18th in MLB, which is below-average. Arroyo is definitely declining quickly this year with his fastball hovering around 87 mph, a decrease from last season. He's already allowed 33 homers on the year and is now dealing with a sore achilles tendon stemming from a play in his last start. It doesn't help that he's coming off 120 pitches, the most he's thrown all season long. Nats have the 9th best home-record this year, while Cincy has won 44% of their roadies, ranked 20th worst. Nasty Nats get the call here.

#2: Atlanta Braves +119

For those who complain that I play too many favorites, here you go, a nice little home-doggie for you! Just kidding of course, as I could care less if it's a favorite or a dog as long as I end up with + Units at the end of the season. Either way, this one might not be a very popular play today. Let me explain the rationale. First of all, Lincecum is a beast. I know it and everyone knows it. His stats are incredible and the guy is a 'baller'. That being said, he can't win games all on his own. That's where the issues come in. This Giants offense is completely decimated with injuries. Even a backup catcher, Eli Whiteside, will most likely sit today after getting hit on the head yesterday and feeling dizziness. Giants will have their #3 catcher in there today, Chris Stewart, a career .207 hitter. At the same time Jeff Keppinger is most likely out as well, as he's been diagnosed with a bone-bruise and instructed to rest for a few games by the doctor. So what lineup can we expect to see today? Well, I would expect something like this:

1. Cody Ross (R) CF -- hitting .239 this year
2. Mike Fontenot (L) 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B -- Career .341 wOBA from the right side / .367 wOBA from the left
4. Aubrey Huff (L) 1B
5. Nate Schierholtz (L) RF
6. Orlando Cabrera (R) SS -- .240 BA this year
7. Brandon Belt (L) LF
8. Chris Stewart (R) C -- .207 hitter

I've only included stats for right-handed batters. The rest of the offense for the Giants are left-handed. Unfortunately for them, they'll be facing a young lefty pitcher in Mike Minor. This will be Minor's first career start against the Giants, thus the 'unfamiliarity' factor is in play. At the same time, Minor has been filthy against lefties in his short MLB career, with 11.66 K/9 (3.17 K/BB) against them and a very solid 3.39 xFIP. Against righties, he has a respectable 7.77 K/9 (2.65 K/BB) with a 3.75 xFIP, still very solid. Minor has put together a number of solid starts, and besides games against the New York Mets (9 ER's in 10 innings) he's been very good lately. Throw in the fact that the Giants are the 3rd worst offensive team against lefties this year, and I see a very solid outing for Minor today.

I mentioned this in one of my previous write-ups, but Atlanta is 2nd worst against lefties this year, right below the Giants. The good news for them though is that they won't be facing a lefty. They are actually ranked #12 offensively against right-handers on the season. Lincecum is 1-2 against ATL in his last 3 starts against them, and he already got rocked by them once this season, allowing 5 ER's on 6 hits and issuing 6 walks in that one. And if Lincecum runs into trouble, Giant's bullpen might not be there to save him as they're dealing with injuries of their own. Both Wilson (their closer) and Romo (not the Cowboys QB!!), one of their better relievers, will be out today.

I know in a long run it's not smart to fade a stud like Lincecum, but when I could get a better team in Atlanta at home at + odds like this, with as weak as Timmy's supporting cast is today, I will take my chances.

#3: Cleveland Indians -113

Fading my White Sox in this one. I love Masterson and anytime I could get him at close to even odds, it's worth a play. Masterson has been excellent against Chicago this year allowing 3 ER's in 22 innings pitched (3 starts) for a 1.23 ERA. Opposite him is Humber and although this is his first career start against the Tribe, I can't overlook the fact that he's allowed 4+ ER's in 5 straight starts. The guy has never thrown more than 149 innings in his career so he might be wearing out a bit. Either way, I'll take my chances fading a pitcher who has allowed 40 hits in his last 25 innings pitched. It also doesn't hurt that the White Sox are the 5th worst team at home this year.

Epaminondas

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 1817

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:29 PM ET #63

0

eknilb

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 1175

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:32 PM ET #64

you made me $3200 today i love you no person

0

LawDog

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 3535

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:33 PM ET #65

sweeeep

0

bodio

Banned

Joined: Apr, 2009

Posts: 7370

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:33 PM ET #66

Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
153 - 127 @ 54% for +10.89 Units

Thur 08/18

#1: Washington Nationals -135

#2: Atlanta Braves +119

#3: Cleveland Indians -113

#4: New York Yankees -1.5 RL -130

All I gotta say is that the Bombers definitely made up for yesterday's performance. :)

Nice night tonight fellas. Back at it tomorrow.

0

Ktrain

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 6580

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:36 PM ET #67

Bodio!!!!!! What a fuckin day my man!!!!!!!!

Not only did I play all of your plays today I did the incredibly stupid thing and parlayed them all for a unit as well!!!!!!

Sick fucking day!!!! Thank you sooooooooo much!!!!

0

si1ly

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 12061

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:38 PM ET #68

Bodio, I had some leans on your plays tonight, so I'd like to thank you for this ticket:

Wager Type:	Parlay (2 team)
Wager Status:	Win
Risk / To Win Amount:	307.70 / 1000.00 (USD) Accepted 8/18/2011 5:42 PM - EST
Won:	1000.00
Amount Paid:	1000.00

Item #1
Wager Type:	Run Line
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	MLB Baseball / Game
Selection:	Washington Nationals 8/18/2011 7:05:01 PM - (EST) -1½ +155
Pitchers:	B ARROYO-R - Must Pitch J ZIMMERMN-R - Must Pitch
Item #2
Wager Type:	Run Line
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	MLB Baseball / Game
Selection:	New York Yankees 8/18/2011 8:10:01 PM - (EST) -1½ -150
Pitchers:	C SABATHIA-L - Must Pitch B DUENSING-L - Must Pitch

0

bcwoodson

Prospect

Joined: Jun, 2006

Posts: 41

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:46 PM ET #69

Great job Bodio. A very very good night for me. Thanks.

0

Kaufee

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 4751

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:47 PM ET #70

0

SamuelRothstein

Prospect

Joined: May, 2011

Posts: 153

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:48 PM ET #71

Real Talk Bodio. I love you...NO person! You are the man!

All of South San Francisco thanks you for saving our asses!

Love,

Degenerate Gamblers everywhere!

0

johnmillions

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2011

Posts: 418

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:49 PM ET #72

Fantastic!

0

eknilb

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 1175

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:50 PM ET #73

this is the bodio i remember from nba and cbb....

0

eknilb

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 1175

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:51 PM ET #74

you used to always talk about long terms and not short terms....

0

elmatador

Veteran

Joined: May, 2009

Posts: 4601

Posted: Aug. 18, 2011 - 11:51 PM ET #75

Fucking awesome...

0

All Forums | MLB Betting

About Us

Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials

Betting Guides

Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming

Sports Betting

US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps

Contests

Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools

The Covers community has

618,670

lifetime members worldwide

Join our community today

Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.

Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.

Bodio's MLB Thur 08/18

Hot Forum Topics