Posted:
#1
2011 MLB Record:
94 - 79 @ 54% for +4.89 Units
Tue, 06/21
#1: New York Mets -137
The A's are coming off a 5-game winning streak, but all those wins came at home. Now they get to go on the road, where they are 5-16 in their last 21. The Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 inter-league home games against a 'lefty' starter and 11-4 in their last 15 as a favorite in the -110 to -150 home spread-range. In addition, Mets are 11-1 in Gee's last 12 starts while the A's are 1-4 in Outman's last 5 'roadies'. Speaking of Gee, he's coming into this one having thrown 53 pitches in his last appearance due to a rain delay. He should be fresh in this one, and I expect him to pitcher well, especially going up against a bottom-5 lineup. On the season Gee has a solid 3.24 FIP (#41) and 3.75 xFIP (#82). His K/BB ratio of 2.37 (fairly decent) and 3.21 tERA (#19th) indicates that he has the ability to generate 'weak' contact out of the batters. He has been pretty 'lucky' this year with a .243 BABIP but with an almost 50% GB%, I don't see this 'weak-hitting' A's lineup putting up too many runs against him. Outman, is coming off his best performance this year where he went 7 innings, giving up 4 hits to the Royals. He only had 2 K's to 2 BB's in that one and did throw for a decent number of pitches, 97. On the season, Outman has a very weak 1.09 K/BB ratio with 3.71 FIP (#85) and a very mediocre 4.85 xFIP (#179th -- one of the worst in the league). With a 'lucky' .258 BABIP and a below average GB% of 37%, I expect this middle-of-the-road Mets lineup to have some success off him in this one. Mets are averaging 4.7 rpg off lefty-starters, 12% better than their season average, while the A's are scoring only 3.3 rpg on the road. Both BP's are ranked #1 and #2 in xFIP for the month of June thus I don't see an advantage for either one here. A's had to travel cross-country for this one, and they're 5-18 in their last 23 inter-league road games. I see a comfortable home-win for the Metropolitans in this one.
Good luck!
94 - 79 @ 54% for +4.89 Units
Tue, 06/21
#1: New York Mets -137
The A's are coming off a 5-game winning streak, but all those wins came at home. Now they get to go on the road, where they are 5-16 in their last 21. The Mets are 10-4 in their last 14 inter-league home games against a 'lefty' starter and 11-4 in their last 15 as a favorite in the -110 to -150 home spread-range. In addition, Mets are 11-1 in Gee's last 12 starts while the A's are 1-4 in Outman's last 5 'roadies'. Speaking of Gee, he's coming into this one having thrown 53 pitches in his last appearance due to a rain delay. He should be fresh in this one, and I expect him to pitcher well, especially going up against a bottom-5 lineup. On the season Gee has a solid 3.24 FIP (#41) and 3.75 xFIP (#82). His K/BB ratio of 2.37 (fairly decent) and 3.21 tERA (#19th) indicates that he has the ability to generate 'weak' contact out of the batters. He has been pretty 'lucky' this year with a .243 BABIP but with an almost 50% GB%, I don't see this 'weak-hitting' A's lineup putting up too many runs against him. Outman, is coming off his best performance this year where he went 7 innings, giving up 4 hits to the Royals. He only had 2 K's to 2 BB's in that one and did throw for a decent number of pitches, 97. On the season, Outman has a very weak 1.09 K/BB ratio with 3.71 FIP (#85) and a very mediocre 4.85 xFIP (#179th -- one of the worst in the league). With a 'lucky' .258 BABIP and a below average GB% of 37%, I expect this middle-of-the-road Mets lineup to have some success off him in this one. Mets are averaging 4.7 rpg off lefty-starters, 12% better than their season average, while the A's are scoring only 3.3 rpg on the road. Both BP's are ranked #1 and #2 in xFIP for the month of June thus I don't see an advantage for either one here. A's had to travel cross-country for this one, and they're 5-18 in their last 23 inter-league road games. I see a comfortable home-win for the Metropolitans in this one.
Good luck!
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-----------------------------------
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