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Bodio's MLB Tue 06/21

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Posted: #51
gonna tail you on this one bodio. I think the A's are due for a nice beat down after the sweep of the Gmen
 
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Posted: #52
 
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Posted: #53
Meet the mets greet the mets!!! Good luck with that garbage organization!!

I will be rooting it in for you.
 
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Posted: #54
 
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Posted: #55

Quote Originally Posted by buffalo11:

i like the pick but the A's just swept the champs last weekend so don't call the A's a bottom 5 lineup!!!

Yea, Bodio, do not call them a bottom 5 lineup...

 

 

Call them a bottom 3 lineup.

 
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Posted: #56
GL
 
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Posted: #57
sup Bodio...

you dont like TOR today...?

Tor vs Leftie Minor...... Tor is hot vs lefties

Atl vs new Rightie

i bet you Mike Minor cant take it out of the park in this life...


any other strong lean for today..?


 
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Posted: #58

GL Bodio, always love your analysis

 
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Posted: #59

I LIKE ATL TODAY WHAT YOU THINK BODIO?...yes bluejays hit well against left-handed pitchers but how have they been hitting the last month? not to well...what do u think?

 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by GiLmo574:

Yea, Bodio, do not call them a bottom 5 lineup...

 

 

Call them a bottom 3 lineup.


hehe...
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by Czar_10:

sup Bodio...

you dont like TOR today...?

Tor vs Leftie Minor...... Tor is hot vs lefties

Atl vs new Rightie

i bet you Mike Minor cant take it out of the park in this life...


any other strong lean for today..?



That's true..Tor has been crushing lefties this year.  Jays is not a bad play actually.  I might have to take a look at them again.  

I have one more strong lean which will most likely be another play (and a couple of 'action' wagers)...write-up coming up
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by buffalo11:

my picks mets ML, texas mL, boston ML

I'm going to have 2 'action' wagers on Padres and Astros (too much 'value').  
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by NCState2008:

I LIKE ATL TODAY WHAT YOU THINK BODIO?...yes bluejays hit well against left-handed pitchers but how have they been hitting the last month? not to well...what do u think?


I don't remember the last time Minor won a game.  Blue Jays hit 'lefties' really well this year.  To me this one is Blue Jays or pass... 
 
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Posted: #64

good luck bodio.

i like the pick alot.

 
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Posted: #65
Bodizzle, whatta think of Boston RL? I dont think Latos will have a chance in hell  in Fenway.  Also, I wanna know what you think of Philly, lots-o-juice but Doc going against a struggling Cards team minus "the machine".  One more, Reds, best chance for them to get a win vs Yanks would be 2night.  good luck
All it takes is one bad day to reduce the sanest man alive to lunacy
 
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Posted: #66

Quote Originally Posted by ghostfaceripper:

Bodizzle, whatta think of Boston RL? I dont think Latos will have a chance in hell  in Fenway.  Also, I wanna know what you think of Philly, lots-o-juice but Doc going against a struggling Cards team minus "the machine".  One more, Reds, best chance for them to get a win vs Yanks would be 2night.  good luck

I like the Padres in this one.  Latos is rounding into 'form'.

Philly has struggled at St Louis and their offense is really struggling right now.  Doc is a stud but this could be a very close game and the 'odds' just don't justify a play in this one.  (Maybe parlay Philly with a tennis match or something to reduce the odds for a small action play)

As for Cincy, it's hard to go against the 'Bombers'.  If Cueto didn't feel 'right' yesterday (neck cramp I think), what if he's just a tad off tonight?  That's all that the Yankees need.  I'm staying away from this one

 

 
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Posted: #67
#2: UNDER 7.5 PHI/STL -120

My model has this one at 6 total runs. I've spent most of the morning trying to determine why this total is so high but ultimately have to 'trust' the numbers. Halladay is a stud ranked #1 in FIP, #2 in xFIP and #2 in tERA -- pretty incredible. With a sick 8.14 K/BB ratio and 53% GB%, he is the best pitcher in the league IMO. He's faced St Louis a couple of times in his career and has an ERA of 1.13 in those with WHIP below 1. St Louis is already missing David Freese and now will be without Pujols as well. I expect Halladay to be very efficient and go at least 7 in this one. McClellan came off the DL this past Wednesday and gave up 7 hits and 3 ER's in 5 innings. He was definitely rusty but only threw 77 pitches, thus I expect him to be 'fresh' tonight. He's never faced Philly as a starter and I expect that to be an advantage, as well as the fact that the Phillies have averaged 2.5 rpg in their last 4. Both teams had a day off yesterday and thus the BP's should be 'fresh' in this one. Busch Stadium is one of the worst hitter-parks in the league, and I like the 'factors' in this matchup to keep this one UNDER the posted total, especially since the O/U is 0-4-1 in the last 5 meetings in St Louis.

=============================================

Action wagers:

San Diego Padres +170
Houston Astros +205

A couple of 'action' wagers here. Just a lot of 'value' on these 'dogs' even though they're facing offensive juggarnauts on the road.

Good luck!

 
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Posted: #68
BODIO THANKS FOR THE PICKS TODAY!!!

BUT I AM GOING BIG ON BOS AND TEXAS.....
YOU REALLY SURE ON SD AND HOUSTON PLAYS?
YOU SCARED SHIT OUT OF ME...

 
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Posted: #69
Whaddya think of Max "von Baron" Sherzer at LAD today Bodio?
The impossible only takes longer….
 
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Posted: #70
Some of the Best Write-up's in the BIZ,BOL 


 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by krman32:

BODIO THANKS FOR THE PICKS TODAY!!!

BUT I AM GOING BIG ON BOS AND TEXAS.....
YOU REALLY SURE ON SD AND HOUSTON PLAYS?
YOU SCARED SHIT OUT OF ME...


Bos/SD:
There's a reason why Aceves is a reliever and not a starter.  The guy has a very mediocre 1.29 K/BB ratio and THE worst xFIP of any starter, at 5.52.  Sure SD is the worst hitting team in the majors, but even they should be able to get some runs off this guy.  Latos has been pitching really well prior to a poor outing in Coors Field last time out.  He's never faced BoSox before so he'll have an advantage there.  Also, remember that San Diego has one of the BEST bullpen in the league.  Much better starting pitcher and better BP -- that's 2 of the top 2 factors that favor SD.  At these odds, it's worth a shot to take them.

Hou/Tex:
Some might remember that I backed Lyles against the Pirates in his last start.  He was really good in that one but 2 errors and a 3-run homer in the 1st lead to a loss.  After that homer, he retired 15 in a row, prior to giving up 2 singles and leaving with 2 outs in the 6th.  He's a pretty solid pitcher who has a 3.48 xFIP (Wilson is at 3.42) and 3.3 tERA (Wilson is at 4.0) on the season.  Also, Rangers have never seen him before.  Wilson has faced Houston batters before but what's more critical is that he's coming off a 128-pitch outing, the most he's thrown in 2 years.  Pence might be back today and Houston has been swinging their bats pretty well lately.  One final factor is that Rangers' BP is one of the worst in the league.  If Wilson is out around the 6th inning (I wouldn't be surprised), that's at least 3 innings that the Astros hitters will have to generate a couple of runs against this mediocre BP.  Enough factors to throw an 'action' play on a +205 doggie.  

Good luck!

 
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Posted: #73
GL Bodio....love the play today.
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Bos/SD:
There's a reason why Aceves is a reliever and not a starter.  The guy has a very mediocre 1.29 K/BB ratio and THE worst xFIP of any starter, at 5.52.  Sure SD is the worst hitting team in the majors, but even they should be able to get some runs off this guy.  Latos has been pitching really well prior to a poor outing in Coors Field last time out.  He's never faced BoSox before so he'll have an advantage there.  Also, remember that San Diego has one of the BEST bullpen in the league.  Much better starting pitcher and better BP -- that's 2 of the top 2 factors that favor SD.  At these odds, it's worth a shot to take them.

Hou/Tex:
Some might remember that I backed Lyles against the Pirates in his last start.  He was really good in that one but 2 errors and a 3-run homer in the 1st lead to a loss.  After that homer, he retired 15 in a row, prior to giving up 2 singles and leaving with 2 outs in the 6th.  He's a pretty solid pitcher who has a 3.48 xFIP (Wilson is at 3.42) and 3.3 tERA (Wilson is at 4.0) on the season.  Also, Rangers have never seen him before.  Wilson has faced Houston batters before but what's more critical is that he's coming off a 128-pitch outing, the most he's thrown in 2 years.  Pence might be back today and Houston has been swinging their bats pretty well lately.  One final factor is that Rangers' BP is one of the worst in the league.  If Wilson is out around the 6th inning (I wouldn't be surprised), that's at least 3 innings that the Astros hitters will have to generate a couple of runs against this mediocre BP.  Enough factors to throw an 'action' play on a +205 doggie.  

Good luck!


ALRIGHT BODIO!!!!!

I GOT YOUR POINT.......I KNOW SD HAS BEST BULLPEN BUT THEY USED A LOT OF GUYS YESTERDAY AND BOS HITTERS ARE HOT....WHEN HITTERS ARE HOT, THEY CAN SEE THE BALL LIKE A WATERMELON....I MADE GOOD MONEY ON BOS AND TEXAS YESTERDAY.....BUT MAYBE YOU ARE RIGHT I MIGHT STAY AWAY AND SMALL WAGERS ON UNDER DOGS... ALSO LOTS OF PEOPLE ON BOS AND TEXAS TONIGHT....THESE REASONS MAKE ME STOP TO PUT ON BOS AND TEX......
BUT KEEP THAT IN YOUR MINE BODIO...WHEN VALUE IS OVER 200 ABOUT 90% CHANCES TO WIN..

ALWAYS BROTHER...RESPECT YOUR PICKS..... BOL TONIGHT BODIO
 
 
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Posted: #75
Quote Originally Posted by krman32:



BUT KEEP THAT IN YOUR MINE BODIO...WHEN VALUE IS OVER 200 ABOUT 90% CHANCES TO WIN..



What do you mean by this?  -200 odds indicate 67% chance to win not 90%
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