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Bodio's MLB Tue 07/19 (Picks + Breakdowns)

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Posted: #26
i love wash and atl ml and boston over, thanks for the write ups man, lost of awesome info as usual bodio, you are still scary though
 
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Posted: #27
BOL today 
 
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Posted: #28
TY!
 
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Posted: #29

THANKS BODIO & BOL TONIGHT...

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Major 'hitters park', Bautista is back, and this is the 2nd time Toronto will see Pineida this year.  Cecil is garbage and both teams are bottom half in fielding.  As nasty as Pineda is, his GB-rate is very subpar and his 50% FB rate doesn't bode well in a 'hitters park' like Rogers Centre.  With a very lucky .246 BABIP and a good amount of innings under his belt in his first season, expect Pineda's #'s to regress a bit in the 2nd half.  With O/U at only 8, there's solid 'value' here.  My model has this one at 9.4 total runs....

Thanks for the response.  I tend to agree that Pineda will regress a bit this year, but not against Toronto today.  I like the M's to win, no play on the total.  Good luck!
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

Yo - is the BOS/BAL 5 Inning Over a better option / thought than the total for game?  (Give starting pitchers).

why is it better?  
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Thanks for the response.  I tend to agree that Pineda will regress a bit this year, but not against Toronto today.  I like the M's to win, no play on the total.  Good luck!

wow..M's to win on the road?  That's ballsy. Definitely an advantage with starting pitching but as bad as that team is offensively, it's pretty tough to back them at home, and even more so on the road.  Maybe if Bautista was out I'd agree that it might be worth a shot but with him being back there it's a very risky call IMO.  Good luck! 
 
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Posted: #33
Updated leans: 

OVER BOS/BAL; UNDER SDP/FLA; UNDER LAD SF



Passing on both Washington and Atlanta.  As much as I like Washington with Zimm on the mound, I can't back them at this current price due to how poorly this offense performs against lefties (bottom 3 of the league).  Also, Happ has a 1.62 ERA against Washington with 2 scoreless-starts last year.  Not enough 'value' to back the Nats here from my perspective.  

I like ATL with Beachy on the mound, but this is his first career start at Coors Field.  It's not an easy place to pitch and even though I consider Beachy a better starter than Ubaldo this year, I have to pass here as well.  
 
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Posted: #34
gl today bodio
 
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Posted: #35
* The crux of the O/U is the starting pitchers (not the BPs - as the BPs are decent - though BOS did you a lot of it recently especially 2 nights ago).  THIS IS THE MAJOR REASON I BRING IT UP.

* That being said, BAL is 2nd worst scoring team in 1st inning this year in MLB, but in general BAL seems to be slightly scoring more in 1-5 than 6-9.

* The total is 5.5 vs 10 (I only see 10 now).  So the avg run-rate is slightly better 6/5 vs 11/9 (for the victory).  And 5 innnings (to get 6 runs) basically means you go thru the heart of lineup 3 times (and probably avoid the bottom the 3rd time - and if we get there, that's good as we probably got over) - so we get the good batters up 3 times).  These are (far) secondary arguments.

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Definitely a big series for the Angels here.  They need to win this series.  If I had to choose, I'd back Angels at pretty good odds at home, especially with a pitcher that the Rangers haven't seen before.  But the again, I'm a little biased as I have Angels winning the division as one of my 2nd half 'futures' bets 
I have already played as well @2,9 after the all star break and now @5,25 at bet365 .

None the less i will play LAA today as well, i got my mind made up...


Waiting for ur final plays
 
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Posted: #37
good stuff
 
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Posted: #38
Like the Braves as well.


BOL Bodio
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:


Thanks for the response.  I tend to agree that Pineda will regress a bit this year, but not against Toronto today.  I like the M's to win, no play on the total.  Good luck!

WAIT hold the press!  You are going to back the Seattle Mariners?  The worst team I have seen in YEARS?  Yeah they could win.  Anyone can win any game it's a sport, but I wouldn't bet the M's with YOUR money thats how bad they are.

Best of luck truly, but  
 
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Posted: #40
BOL Bodio
 
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Posted: #41
GL
 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

* The crux of the O/U is the starting pitchers (not the BPs - as the BPs are decent - though BOS did you a lot of it recently especially 2 nights ago).  THIS IS THE MAJOR REASON I BRING IT UP.

* That being said, BAL is 2nd worst scoring team in 1st inning this year in MLB, but in general BAL seems to be slightly scoring more in 1-5 than 6-9.

* The total is 5.5 vs 10 (I only see 10 now).  So the avg run-rate is slightly better 6/5 vs 11/9 (for the victory).  And 5 innnings (to get 6 runs) basically means you go thru the heart of lineup 3 times (and probably avoid the bottom the 3rd time - and if we get there, that's good as we probably got over) - so we get the good batters up 3 times).  These are (far) secondary arguments.

I don't bet first 5 that often but your logic is pretty sound.  The only thing is that both of the BP's have been pretty used up lately, thus it could reduce their effectiveness in the later innings.  I do agree with your point that you get the best hitters at least 3 times in the first 5, and avoid the 'worst' hitters in inning 6.  Also something to consider is that the expectation is that Boston will be winning this one, thus will force Baltimore to bat in the bottom of the 9th.  Obviously if Boston was the home team, and the expectation was that they'd be winning, taking first 5 would be even more advantageous than full-9, since that would guarantee that they're batting in the bottom of the 5th, while potentially could sit out the bottom of the 9th with a lead.

Either way I'm passing on this one as the # is at 10 now and not 9.5 when it opened last night.  Are you playing this one bud?

 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by fuxy008:

I have already played as well @2,9 after the all star break and now @5,25 at bet365 .

None the less i will play LAA today as well, i got my mind made up...


Waiting for ur final plays

 

It's a very solid play.  Ogando has been regressing lately and Angels at home with a pitcher that the Rangers have not seen yet.  Great 'value' here

 
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Posted: #44
2011 MLB Record:
120 - 101 @ 54% for +7.32 Units




Tue 07/19

#1: UNDER 7 SDP/FLA -115

A nice scenario to have when betting unders is where two teams have strong pitching and fielding, and poor hitting. Well both of these pitchers have been excellent this year with very strong advanced stats and above average GB-rates. Both bullpens are ranked top 10 and the hitting is in the bottom 10 of the league. Both squads are above-averaging in fielding as well. In addition, Stauffer hasn't faced off against Florida since 2009. He went 6 innings in that lone start against them giving up 3 hits and 1 ER. Sanchez saw the Padres 2 times in his career, both last year. He gave up 11 hits and only 3 ER's in 12.1 innings pitched. Facing a Padres lineup that has scored 2 or less runs in 6 of their last 8 games, I see Sanchez being very successful tonight. Stauffer has given up more than 2 ER's only once in his last 9 starts and I expect him to be rested and pitch. The O/U is 13-30 in Padres games coming off a day-off and 7-12 on the road where the total is 7 or less. The O/U is 7-13 in Florida's games this year when the total was 7 or less and 17-26 over the last couple of seasons. Marlins have had to fly 2 consecutive nights in a row (from Chicago to NY for yesterday's game, and then back home). Expect some 'jet-lag'. My model has this one at 6.5 total runs but with these additional factors and the fact that we'll need 8 total runs for this one to lose, I'm very comfortable making this play.

#2: UNDER 6.5 LAD/SFG -102

Similar scenario as the FLA/SDP game: very good starting pitchers, top 15 bullpens (Dodgers are #15 and Giants are #2), above average fielding squads (#11 and #10), and terrible on offense (bottom 7). And of course you can throw in a 'pitchers park' as well. De La Rosa has really been pitching well, evidenced by his 53rd ranked xFIP. He has allowed 4 ER's and 12 hits in his last 20 innings pitched with 17 K's to 7 BB's. In his last outing, versus another light-hitting squad in San Diego, RDLR allowed 1 hit in 6 innings pitched. Now he gets to face another weak-hitting team for the first time in his career. I expect him to pitch well. Opposite him is Bumgarner, who despite excellent numbers this season, comes in with a 4-9 record. Well, the Giants are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and he is also coming off an excellent outing his last time out (6 innings 1 ER's with 4 K's and 0 BB's). One concern is that Bum-G's ERA is 5.36 at home compared to 2.54 on the road. That's very strange as AT&T Park is one of the worst for hitters. What gives?!? Well, I pulled up his advanced stats split out by Home and Away starts. It turns out that his home xFIP is 2.99, which is even better than his road xFIP of 3.20. In additon he has higher K/9 rate at home (8.62 vs 7.21 on the road), and better FIP (2.22 vs 2.63 on the road). The reason for such a discrepancy in H/A ERA compared to some of the advanced metrics, is his extremely unlucky home BABIP of .429. Compare that to a much more realistic .275 BABIP on the road. Well, expect that home ERA to improve going forward, especially against a Dodgers squad which has averaged 2.2 rpg and .186 BA over their last 13. The O/U is 2-8 in Dodgers' last 10 games, while it's 15-28 in Giants' home games. I expect another low-scoring affair here, similar to last night. My model has this one at 5.3 total runs.

Good luck!

_________________

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
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-----------------------------------
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"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"

 
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Posted: #45
oopps...double posted :)
 
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Posted: #46
As always, fantastic information.

Stay Hot Bodio!!

Thanks for the analysis


 
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Posted: #47
hey Bodio,, i am from Arizona,, my local bookie didn't interested in Baseball,, i am thinking about sign up with online books,, do you know or have any idea about online books,, thanks bro
 
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Posted: #48
my book has the sdg/lad runs at 6.5....do you still recommend taking the under or should i stay with your florida play only????....thanks
 
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Posted: #49
hey bodio should i take the 6.5 u for the lad/sdg game or should i just stick to the florida one?
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:


Nice...I'd be careful with using most of these Covers Experts though.  Someone has posted their long-term records at sbr, and they are atrocious, especially guys like nick parsons and mark lawrence.  If someone is hitting below 50% long-term, it's probably not a good idea to use the information and analysis they provide 


Thank you for your input, Bodio, and I agree with you, totally.

I don't take their recommendations seriously at all, but the information/data/angles that they use are useful for me, as I cherry-pick their information, but I don't follow their picks for the most part.

And I find it absurd that most of their free picks are on chalk-heavy favorites. I've subscribed to a couple of them (Burns and Severansky) and those guys are pretty good, but their monthly price does not justify the chalk-heavy picks that they usually do.

For my main bread-'n-butter betting, I follow a website and the are exceptional -- the best there is, but I won't dare post their picks in this forum, let alone any website out there, lest I get banned and lose my precious position with the site. Any picks that I post are my own picks, always.

I've been doing great with my own betting, too, and your (Bodio) information is always valuable to me, especially the write-up part that gives me good snapshots of data that are relevant to each game.
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