Bubba's $$$$ Thread MONDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 04.25.16

Game 6 Ducks vs. Preds.   All statistics and momentum in favor of the Ducks here.   Obviously better team during season.   +7 goal differential in the series.  95.5% PK vs. 89%.  11% PP (not great though) vs. a dismal 4.5% PP for the Preds.

Historical NHL Statistics for game 6 match-ups:  Team that wins in game 5 to go ahead 3-2 wins as a road team 60.4% of the time (just happened with Dallas yesterday as well). 

$$$$ Ducks ML -125 $$$$

BOL today guys!

@ Newmi . Your soccer plays don't come around often enough but, they are automatic plays. Thanks

Absolutely love this thread, you guys are great,... Just some NHL thoughts.

Hockey is a game of momentum and timing, playing hot at the right time of year is monumentally important.. NHL players are fantastic athletes with awesome skills, that's why we see "upsets".

Pittsburgh Penguins are Hot and confident, Capitals always have trouble scoring on a consistent basis. Islanders have heart and Tampa Bay is just not overwhelming, this will be very interesting series, Tavares for Isles really coming to life. Tonight I believe Blackhawks experience & pride takeover, I would love to see Blues advance, they have been solid & are more physical, but they just can't score. Good luck to all and much respect.

$$$ Mets -½  1ST 5 INNINGS (-125) $$$

I also like this play on the Ducks. Also, were getting good value.

No $$$$ for me today but I have .1U ML plays on the Rockies and D'Backs.  

Absolutely love this thread, you guys are great,... Just some NHL thoughts.

Hockey is a game of momentum and timing, playing hot at the right time of year is monumentally important.. NHL players are fantastic athletes with awesome skills, that's why we see "upsets".

Pittsburgh Penguins are Hot and confident, Capitals always have trouble scoring on a consistent basis. Islanders have heart and Tampa Bay is just not overwhelming, this will be very interesting series, Tavares for Isles really coming to life. Tonight I believe Blackhawks experience & pride takeover, I would love to see Blues advance, they have been solid & are more physical, but they just can't score. Good luck to all and much respect

Am looking at this Clipper game and I am seeing a 205.5. I got to think this is like 7 points too high. Last game hit a 184 with a desperate Portland squad doing everything to win that one. What I saw was a lazy Clip squad who knew they were up 2-0. I got to see better D from the Clip. I mean they were one of the better defenses this year. So we have a 1st game total of 210 then two games which went way under. Really these teams have played 8 games this year and 6 have gone under the books number. 5 have gone under the 205.5 I see posted today. And we still have a desperate Blazer squad now against a Clip team that I hope got their $&@@sses reamed. Why would a sane person think this would go over? I can't figure why the books think this game and the OKC game will have the same total. A vast difference in mentality between LAC and OKC. This one is going way under
$$$$
LAC-POR 205.5 u
PS.
Actually I think you could make some serious coin going under all three games and all three games 1Hu. Believe they are hitting at like 70%. Yesterday even with the OT game I believe it was 2 unders 1 over and a push. Unders here are really undervalued. Go under
Brutaljoe

First $$$$ play for me. Been following the thread and just wanted to say Thank You to Bubba for keeping this thread alive.

Kozmos,

Short, but sweet right up on Gravemann.  I was aware of Oak doing well on the road, but not as familiar with Gravemann, I will take a close look at that game.

Pimp,

Muchos respect, but tread lightly on Cleveland against lefties.  has been their achilles heel past couple of years.  Haven't looked specifically at their recent record against Milone.

Bubba,

For my $$$$, I have been trying to go with plays I really like and not go with ones others mention (i.e. Cubs yesterday), but that strategy isn't working as I hit 8 out of 10 plays.  Lost only Philly and GS over yesterday.  Anyway, I will post my $$$$ play (even if it is a popular play) and also try and post a few others I am playing and folks can ask why of they want.

That being said, my $$$$ play for today is also Anaheim -115 (see Saturday's extensive write-up).  The only thing that doesn't apply is the home ice advantage.  Ironically enough, Anaheim has the same road record as the Preds have at home, so we can consider that a wash. If they do lose tonight, I double up on the next game in Anaheim. 

That switch to Andersen has really made the difference.  Otherwise, everything is status quo.  They continue to be the best PK in the league and the amount and timing of PP goals this playoffs for all teams, has been huge.  Ask Philly what it meant that they could not score on that 5 on 3 yesterday.  Or Dallas, which has been on fire on the PP the whole playoffs.

For right now, if you are able to get the play with your book, I like over 1.5 goals in second period at -125.  Last three have easily gone over.  The only ones that have not are games 1, which was only 1-0 and game 3.

Clarification, was typing too fast.  That 2nd period over was meant for the Hawks/Blues series, not Anaheim.  BTW, GO HAWKS!!

...and props again for starting this thread Bubba.

Set tigers-140 GL everyone

Also
I see a 7 1H in the Rockies Tilt tonite
really? A 7? A lot of NL games go there for the FULL GAME. we have a horrid PIT pitcher in Locke and and OK hurler in Bettis for COL. Really 7 runs first 5 innings. I think this is too much and will be hitting it for a moderate play.
Also
I am curious
It seems like ALOT of AL games are going under these days. And NL are hitting over. Wondering why??
Am hitting this CWSu
ThisOaKu
this BALu.
And then I am remembering that TB is where Overs go to die.
So I am hitting that even harder.
That game has UNDER written al over it.
Random thoughts while sipping on my Lagavullan Scotch
Brutaljoe

Games i am liking today--
Indians--Salazar is 2-1, 1.47 in three starts this month, Also feel like they are the hotter team.
Rockies over 12--Pirates seven of their last eight road games went over. Rockies four of its last five home tilts went over.
    I feel best about the Indians also like the fact that pimp is on them too.Cleveland won its last five road games and Minnesota lost five of its last six games.So i am going to play the hotter team. It is monday so be careful but i like my chances with Indians.

$$$$ Indians -148

Hey Guys.   For die hard hockey fans, I did some research on the OHL Finals match-up Barrie vs. Niagara.   Barrie was the top team this year but lost first two games at home vs. the underdog Niagara.   Interesting stat I found though:

Every Barrie road playoff game this season has had 2 or more goals scored in the first period except for 1.   Last 6 games on the road they have scored twice by themselves in the first period in 4 of them.  First two games were both under/equal to 5 now the line is set at 6?  Smell an over here too and some back and forth open ice hockey.   For this reason, I'm liking the following line if you can get it:

$$$$ Barrie vs. Niagara OHL 1st Period O1.5Goals -135 $$$$

BOL Tonight guys!

$$$$ 1-0-1 $$$$

I also like NYM -1.0 and the over 7.5 in the Red Sox game.

Sry, Bubba second time I've done this (but did win the last one!) please have my $$$$ play as the Ducks, Barrie play won't count to my record.   Apologies.

 

[Quote: Originally Posted by brutaljoe] Also
I see a 7 1H in the Rockies Tilt tonite
really? A 7? A lot of NL games go there for the FULL GAME. we have a horrid PIT pitcher in Locke and and OK hurler in Bettis for COL. Really 7 runs first 5 innings. I think this is too much and will be hitting it for a moderate play.
Also
I am curious
It seems like ALOT of AL games are going under these days. And NL are hitting over. Wondering why??
Am hitting this CWSu
ThisOaKu
this BALu.
And then I am remembering that TB is where Overs go to die.
So I am hitting that even harder.
That game has UNDER written al over it.
Random thoughts while sipping on my Lagavullan Scotch 

Really streaky with the baseball parlays but hanging in there... Pitching mismatches are my main factor.

Going with Mets w/Synergaard and Seattle with Tajuan Walker. Both teams have hitting and pitching advantages.

Mets at Home
Snydergaard dominate
Cinci only hitting .197 vs Righties
I think Cespedes may be out after catch in the Stands.

Seattle at Home
Seattle hot while Houston is Cold
Seattle hitting 228 while Houston hitting .214 vs Righties
Fister improving but lousy overall