I see someone else beat me to it, but here are my reasons for picking this one:
- Gio Gonzalez has allowed a total of four runs in his last six stars (37 innings) agains the Mets. He has one non-quality start on the year, and that was at Wrigley when the Cubs were absolutely rolling offensively.
- Bartolo's only four quality starts of the year are against Philly (2), Atlanta and San Diego. Those teams are all in the bottom five in the majors in nearly every offensive category.
- The Nats aren't great offensively, but they are certainly more capable than those three squads. They've scored 5+ in five of their last ten, and three of the games they didn't reach 5 runs were against Jose Fernandez (2) and Noah Syndergaard.
- Even with this weekend's sweep of Milwaukee, the Mets' offense continues to struggle. I know I mentioned this when I took the Mets TT under the other day (and lost), but they've scored more than four runs once in the last 14 games (the game I took the TT under 4). That period included three games against Dodgers pitchers not named Kershaw and three games at Colorado.
- In the end, I think it will take 4+ runs for the Mets to have a chance in this one. Even with Bartolo having a career year at the plate, I don't think they get there.
Best of luck to everyone today. If I lose this one, I just want to genuinely apologize to lltb43 for jinxing his pick.
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$$$$ WAS -1.5 (+145) $$$$
$$$$ Record 0-2-1
I see someone else beat me to it, but here are my reasons for picking this one:
- Gio Gonzalez has allowed a total of four runs in his last six stars (37 innings) agains the Mets. He has one non-quality start on the year, and that was at Wrigley when the Cubs were absolutely rolling offensively.
- Bartolo's only four quality starts of the year are against Philly (2), Atlanta and San Diego. Those teams are all in the bottom five in the majors in nearly every offensive category.
- The Nats aren't great offensively, but they are certainly more capable than those three squads. They've scored 5+ in five of their last ten, and three of the games they didn't reach 5 runs were against Jose Fernandez (2) and Noah Syndergaard.
- Even with this weekend's sweep of Milwaukee, the Mets' offense continues to struggle. I know I mentioned this when I took the Mets TT under the other day (and lost), but they've scored more than four runs once in the last 14 games (the game I took the TT under 4). That period included three games against Dodgers pitchers not named Kershaw and three games at Colorado.
- In the end, I think it will take 4+ runs for the Mets to have a chance in this one. Even with Bartolo having a career year at the plate, I don't think they get there.
Best of luck to everyone today. If I lose this one, I just want to genuinely apologize to lltb43 for jinxing his pick.
On a roll with parlay thing...about 5 or 6 straight but I also have some pretty serious tail spins doing the ML parlay thing. I don't see any real big pitching mismatches other than Kershaw/Dodgers, but -300 is not worth the time and energy. I like Geo and the Nationals and maybe Lackey and the Cubs but not but to many variables for me to do my parlay thing.....best to wait until tomorrow.
Jack Ryan
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On a roll with parlay thing...about 5 or 6 straight but I also have some pretty serious tail spins doing the ML parlay thing. I don't see any real big pitching mismatches other than Kershaw/Dodgers, but -300 is not worth the time and energy. I like Geo and the Nationals and maybe Lackey and the Cubs but not but to many variables for me to do my parlay thing.....best to wait until tomorrow.
Nice weekend. Cashed in on that OKC ML/Giants ML parlay last night. Waiting on bucs ML. Already O TT4 in the 3rd.
Looking at a few plays tonight:
IItb via Mozart - Love the Nats RL (+141) play. Gio v. Colon feels like 2-3 run difference on Colon`s best day. I`ll take the value play.
- Dodgers RL (-149). Kind of expensive except that its Kershaw v Reds.
- Also, thinking about a small play on the loser of Game 1 CWS v Indians and Giants RL. Doubleheaders split more often than not. Padres are beat after last nights marathon and short travel.
- Cavs let me down on Saturday but this is a nice bounce back spot as I feel they win easy. Irving and Love were combined 4 for 28 from the floor. That won`t happen again. Lebron & Co. handle their business tonight and head back home to finish the series off.
I`ll be back later to finalize my picks and give my $$$$ play.
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Greetings to all.
Nice weekend. Cashed in on that OKC ML/Giants ML parlay last night. Waiting on bucs ML. Already O TT4 in the 3rd.
Looking at a few plays tonight:
IItb via Mozart - Love the Nats RL (+141) play. Gio v. Colon feels like 2-3 run difference on Colon`s best day. I`ll take the value play.
- Dodgers RL (-149). Kind of expensive except that its Kershaw v Reds.
- Also, thinking about a small play on the loser of Game 1 CWS v Indians and Giants RL. Doubleheaders split more often than not. Padres are beat after last nights marathon and short travel.
- Cavs let me down on Saturday but this is a nice bounce back spot as I feel they win easy. Irving and Love were combined 4 for 28 from the floor. That won`t happen again. Lebron & Co. handle their business tonight and head back home to finish the series off.
I`ll be back later to finalize my picks and give my $$$$ play.
@JL good call on malmo especially making it a $$ play. I wish I had the balls to use that in my parlay but the way my luck has been if I did it wouldn't have covered. Hit my parlay AIK n Malmo parlay and also a small wager on AIK. Shock to see all 3 games go under today.
Also hit a 2 leg parlay in tennis and individual bet on Edmund. Good turn around to start the week gotta get my roll back up.
Looking at mlb now early leans are Royals, Nat's, Giants and Dodgers RL. Finnegan ranks #2 for starters whos team loses when they start (reds have 7 L's this year in his starts) but its a lot of juice for a team who just played a 5+ hour game. On the other hand that long game could benefit giants vs padres if those bats wake up. Cueto is 6-1 1.67 ERA w/ 54 Ks in last 7 starts vs Padres.
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@JL good call on malmo especially making it a $$ play. I wish I had the balls to use that in my parlay but the way my luck has been if I did it wouldn't have covered. Hit my parlay AIK n Malmo parlay and also a small wager on AIK. Shock to see all 3 games go under today.
Also hit a 2 leg parlay in tennis and individual bet on Edmund. Good turn around to start the week gotta get my roll back up.
Looking at mlb now early leans are Royals, Nat's, Giants and Dodgers RL. Finnegan ranks #2 for starters whos team loses when they start (reds have 7 L's this year in his starts) but its a lot of juice for a team who just played a 5+ hour game. On the other hand that long game could benefit giants vs padres if those bats wake up. Cueto is 6-1 1.67 ERA w/ 54 Ks in last 7 starts vs Padres.
I'll try my hand with a $$$$ play on a prop bet tonight:
$$$$ LeBron James Over 26 Points -115 $$$$
Coach Lue expressed a concern over the lack of touches/shots LeBron got in game 3... they believe the best chance to win is playing through him, I concur. He only took 17 shots last game yet scored 24 still and his career playoff average is 20 shots for a ppg average of 27.9.
Lebron traditionally responds well to playoff losses. I see him controlling tonight's game on the offensive end with a steady stream of assists, rebounds, put-backs, dunks, etc. He is a facilitator and a play-maker, one of the best we've ever seen. We might enjoy a special performance from him tonight, just a gut feeling.
Also, throwing 1 unit on the following bet:
James Over 41.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists -115
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I'll try my hand with a $$$$ play on a prop bet tonight:
$$$$ LeBron James Over 26 Points -115 $$$$
Coach Lue expressed a concern over the lack of touches/shots LeBron got in game 3... they believe the best chance to win is playing through him, I concur. He only took 17 shots last game yet scored 24 still and his career playoff average is 20 shots for a ppg average of 27.9.
Lebron traditionally responds well to playoff losses. I see him controlling tonight's game on the offensive end with a steady stream of assists, rebounds, put-backs, dunks, etc. He is a facilitator and a play-maker, one of the best we've ever seen. We might enjoy a special performance from him tonight, just a gut feeling.
- In the end, I think it will take 4+ runs for the Mets to have a chance in this one. Even with Bartolo having a career year at the plate, I don't think they get there.
I love it! This hobby requires some humor or we all become nut cases. I haven't smiled much since the CAV's collapse at TOR. Thanks, Brackson, for bringing the smile back.
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Quote Originally Posted by brackson13:
- In the end, I think it will take 4+ runs for the Mets to have a chance in this one. Even with Bartolo having a career year at the plate, I don't think they get there.
I love it! This hobby requires some humor or we all become nut cases. I haven't smiled much since the CAV's collapse at TOR. Thanks, Brackson, for bringing the smile back.
What up fellas?! GOOO RAPTORS! Toronto is buzzing today, great weather, everyone is heading downtown to enjoy this one. Jurassic Park should have it's biggest ever crowd today. Not betting on this, just a fan today.
$$$ ROYALS ML $$$ (1.80)
If there's one thing I know for sure, the Minnesota Twins absolutely suck. I'm not understanding why this line is set with so much value. The Twins are in the bottom 5 in Pitching and Batting in the majors. They just got railed up by the Jays in a 3 gamer, barring that one fluke comeback where the Jays bullpen tanked. Royals have a solid bullpen. Royals pitcher Kennedy blanked the Twinkies in April. Twins pitcher Nolasco has lost 4 straight decisions (lost to KC April 10th too). The Royals just beat the White Sox and Red Sox 2 games to 1 each in their last 2 series. The Twins are 11-32, I'll play the odds and fade the shitbox squadron here. Bet it and forget it.
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Thread Record: 4-6 (4-3 MLB)
What up fellas?! GOOO RAPTORS! Toronto is buzzing today, great weather, everyone is heading downtown to enjoy this one. Jurassic Park should have it's biggest ever crowd today. Not betting on this, just a fan today.
$$$ ROYALS ML $$$ (1.80)
If there's one thing I know for sure, the Minnesota Twins absolutely suck. I'm not understanding why this line is set with so much value. The Twins are in the bottom 5 in Pitching and Batting in the majors. They just got railed up by the Jays in a 3 gamer, barring that one fluke comeback where the Jays bullpen tanked. Royals have a solid bullpen. Royals pitcher Kennedy blanked the Twinkies in April. Twins pitcher Nolasco has lost 4 straight decisions (lost to KC April 10th too). The Royals just beat the White Sox and Red Sox 2 games to 1 each in their last 2 series. The Twins are 11-32, I'll play the odds and fade the shitbox squadron here. Bet it and forget it.
I'm going back to the well, the 1Q over is 3-0 so far in the series and with an offensive minded game plan for both teams I think it goes 4-0 before the books realize their model is off.
Raptor's Big Men Will Not Be as Aggressive Defensively
Bismack Biyombo is a single flagrant 1 foul away from a suspension and god knows the raptors defense could crumble without him in the lineup. In addition Jonas V. has been upgraded to questionable and a game time decision. If he does play I consider this a bonus to Biyombo having to play carefully. Jonas coming off a knee injury will not be able to play top caliber defense (no one does coming off a short turnaround injury) and in addition he is one of the better offensive weapons on the team.
Coach Lue wants to get Lebron More Involved.
When the king is getting the ball, his team puts up points, whether it be through cross court assists to an open jump shooter or driving to the rim and taking clutch shots himself. The emphasis here will be to start strong, score efficiently and put pressure on the Raptors centers given the known fact above. Free throws pump up scoring in games, expect King James to get his share early in the game while driving to the rim.
The Raptors can't rely on their back up center grabbing 26 boards and playing like an all-star every game. They know they need to score and score early to avoid falling into a shooting slump. Given Coach Casey's fine regarding his comments on the reffing, I fully expect DeRozan to be aggressive getting to the line early. The Cavs were in a shooting slump last game and this same bet still hit, expect a little mean reversion and the over to hit before the final shots of the first quarter.
I think sports books models aren't noticing how the OVER/UNDER is depressed in this series due to offensive slumps at the end of games rather than the beginning. So if they model each quarter's total close to linearly there seems to be an discrepancy in valuation for edge cases (beginning and end of games). But honestly I'm not thinking a whole lot about this 1Q bet, its 3-0 so far and the game plan is much more offensive in game 4.
Record: 8-6
I also like the full game OVER, Lebron James over 26 points, Lebron James over 7.5 assists (See the theme here?) And if I had to make a call on the spread I'd take the points because I think it's going to be a closer (trap-type of game) than the public thinks. But I'd honestly stay away from that bet and look at the totals.
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$$$$ Cavaliers @ Raptors 1Q Over 50.5 (-105) $$$$
I'm going back to the well, the 1Q over is 3-0 so far in the series and with an offensive minded game plan for both teams I think it goes 4-0 before the books realize their model is off.
Raptor's Big Men Will Not Be as Aggressive Defensively
Bismack Biyombo is a single flagrant 1 foul away from a suspension and god knows the raptors defense could crumble without him in the lineup. In addition Jonas V. has been upgraded to questionable and a game time decision. If he does play I consider this a bonus to Biyombo having to play carefully. Jonas coming off a knee injury will not be able to play top caliber defense (no one does coming off a short turnaround injury) and in addition he is one of the better offensive weapons on the team.
Coach Lue wants to get Lebron More Involved.
When the king is getting the ball, his team puts up points, whether it be through cross court assists to an open jump shooter or driving to the rim and taking clutch shots himself. The emphasis here will be to start strong, score efficiently and put pressure on the Raptors centers given the known fact above. Free throws pump up scoring in games, expect King James to get his share early in the game while driving to the rim.
The Raptors can't rely on their back up center grabbing 26 boards and playing like an all-star every game. They know they need to score and score early to avoid falling into a shooting slump. Given Coach Casey's fine regarding his comments on the reffing, I fully expect DeRozan to be aggressive getting to the line early. The Cavs were in a shooting slump last game and this same bet still hit, expect a little mean reversion and the over to hit before the final shots of the first quarter.
I think sports books models aren't noticing how the OVER/UNDER is depressed in this series due to offensive slumps at the end of games rather than the beginning. So if they model each quarter's total close to linearly there seems to be an discrepancy in valuation for edge cases (beginning and end of games). But honestly I'm not thinking a whole lot about this 1Q bet, its 3-0 so far and the game plan is much more offensive in game 4.
Record: 8-6
I also like the full game OVER, Lebron James over 26 points, Lebron James over 7.5 assists (See the theme here?) And if I had to make a call on the spread I'd take the points because I think it's going to be a closer (trap-type of game) than the public thinks. But I'd honestly stay away from that bet and look at the totals.
@bncye - see you got some good mojo going on there....lets try to limit your "look at me" posts. We all are happy to see you doing well but we do not need to know the outcome of all your winning plays. keep making that $$$...
NBA: Cavs -5
MLB: Nationals & Royals
Good luck everyone!
@NEWMI - lets get a bounce back win here soon!!!
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@bncye - see you got some good mojo going on there....lets try to limit your "look at me" posts. We all are happy to see you doing well but we do not need to know the outcome of all your winning plays. keep making that $$$...
Couple thoughts tonight or a somewhat limited card. Huge day Sunday so we will just glide into the week and wait for some better plays...esp $$$$ plays.. I think I went 3-1 last week but really no clue to be honest.
1. KC I agree with a couple writers on here. Think we have a better pitching matchup and and most on here know I love the Royals and think they win the division this year again. While the Twins are NOT playing well, I do not think they are as a bad as their record indicates. But I favor the Royals here
2. I too like Wash but mainly because the Mets simply don't hit lefties and don't hit in general. This $ line too high for me so I will play a Run Line here and hope we get some runs.
3. SF SD Under (I see 6.5 most places) Looking for 7 in vegas but don't see it. I almost made this a $$$$ play but I just can't do it. This is normally a GREAT under park, SD played a 17 inning game last night and still didn't hit, they have been shutout an MLB leading 8 times I believe (check that stat, not 100%) but it is a lot and SF is coming off an emotional series taking 2 of 3 from Cubs. Plus Pomeranz has been fantastic this year...I believe he will be fade material by mid season but so far, he has been better than good. I see this 3-1, 3-2 at MOST.
4. Texas Rangers I am going to keep going to the well here. OCA will continue to struggle with this pitching staff. (Trop, Weaver, Shoe, Santiago and Chacin) Who would think this group of starters could win 70 games?? Holland doesn't put any fear in the opposition, but he has been decent against OCA 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA this year and this stat i like the MOST Lefties are hitting .365 vs Trop and the Rangers have some leftie sticks that can get it done. 7-4 Rangers, 6-4 ish
My thoughts for the day!!!
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Couple thoughts tonight or a somewhat limited card. Huge day Sunday so we will just glide into the week and wait for some better plays...esp $$$$ plays.. I think I went 3-1 last week but really no clue to be honest.
1. KC I agree with a couple writers on here. Think we have a better pitching matchup and and most on here know I love the Royals and think they win the division this year again. While the Twins are NOT playing well, I do not think they are as a bad as their record indicates. But I favor the Royals here
2. I too like Wash but mainly because the Mets simply don't hit lefties and don't hit in general. This $ line too high for me so I will play a Run Line here and hope we get some runs.
3. SF SD Under (I see 6.5 most places) Looking for 7 in vegas but don't see it. I almost made this a $$$$ play but I just can't do it. This is normally a GREAT under park, SD played a 17 inning game last night and still didn't hit, they have been shutout an MLB leading 8 times I believe (check that stat, not 100%) but it is a lot and SF is coming off an emotional series taking 2 of 3 from Cubs. Plus Pomeranz has been fantastic this year...I believe he will be fade material by mid season but so far, he has been better than good. I see this 3-1, 3-2 at MOST.
4. Texas Rangers I am going to keep going to the well here. OCA will continue to struggle with this pitching staff. (Trop, Weaver, Shoe, Santiago and Chacin) Who would think this group of starters could win 70 games?? Holland doesn't put any fear in the opposition, but he has been decent against OCA 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA this year and this stat i like the MOST Lefties are hitting .365 vs Trop and the Rangers have some leftie sticks that can get it done. 7-4 Rangers, 6-4 ish
TUESDAY: TENNIS - ROLAND GARROS - FRENCH OPEN - WOMEN
PUIG - GOVORTSOVA
$$$$GOVORTSOVA + 5.5$$$$ at 1.729 Pinnacle
They are 1-1 in their previous matches, both on hard, and Govortsova won pretty easily against Puig last year, while their 1st was a three set match. Puig retired last week from Strasbourg, after defeating Errani in the first round, with a left thigh injury (nothing serious I think). Govortsova is 0-3 on clay this years, but lost all 3 matches against good players, and she knows how to play on clay.
+ 5.5 seems to me pretty safe.
Please copy this one on tomorrow's thread. Thanks.
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$$$$ PICKS: 1-0-0
TUESDAY: TENNIS - ROLAND GARROS - FRENCH OPEN - WOMEN
PUIG - GOVORTSOVA
$$$$GOVORTSOVA + 5.5$$$$ at 1.729 Pinnacle
They are 1-1 in their previous matches, both on hard, and Govortsova won pretty easily against Puig last year, while their 1st was a three set match. Puig retired last week from Strasbourg, after defeating Errani in the first round, with a left thigh injury (nothing serious I think). Govortsova is 0-3 on clay this years, but lost all 3 matches against good players, and she knows how to play on clay.
+ 5.5 seems to me pretty safe.
Please copy this one on tomorrow's thread. Thanks.
I looked at the Mariners next 10 games...I hate to say that they could EASILY make some room for themselves in the standings...but check it out.in the their next 10 games:
Oak 3 at HOME
DAY OFF
Twins 3 at HOME
Padres 4 (Home and Home)
They are 26-17 today with the Rangers 1.5 back at 25-19 Rangers play 9 vs OCA 3 at Home, 3 at Home vs Pirates and 3 at Cleveland.
Seattle should be favored in EVERY game for the next 10 games. They need to win 7-8 for you to make any decent $, but look to side with Mariners for the next 10-11 days...they could be an ATM machine for some....
I will keep up with the "Mariners 10 Game Scheduling Spot" only -126 tonight...I will put 1/2 Unit on them tonight and see how we do. Again, baseball is a long term grind and if you can get a slight edge for a stretch, roll with it. Let's see how it turns out.
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Scheduling Tips of the Day:
I looked at the Mariners next 10 games...I hate to say that they could EASILY make some room for themselves in the standings...but check it out.in the their next 10 games:
Oak 3 at HOME
DAY OFF
Twins 3 at HOME
Padres 4 (Home and Home)
They are 26-17 today with the Rangers 1.5 back at 25-19 Rangers play 9 vs OCA 3 at Home, 3 at Home vs Pirates and 3 at Cleveland.
Seattle should be favored in EVERY game for the next 10 games. They need to win 7-8 for you to make any decent $, but look to side with Mariners for the next 10-11 days...they could be an ATM machine for some....
I will keep up with the "Mariners 10 Game Scheduling Spot" only -126 tonight...I will put 1/2 Unit on them tonight and see how we do. Again, baseball is a long term grind and if you can get a slight edge for a stretch, roll with it. Let's see how it turns out.
Finally, I think I am going to make my biggest bet of the year on Wednesday in a pitching matchup that I think is the biggest mismatch of no name pitchers i have seen in a long time. Not sure what the line will be, but let's get some cash ready for Wednesday..
We also have Jake going, Peavy starting at home, and a couple other good matches!!
Good luck to all this week!!! Sounds like we have a French Open heavy slate...may I ask that someone put together a French Open recap so we know who is doing well etc. I am solely on baseball due to my lack of any talents in any other sport lol
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Finally, I think I am going to make my biggest bet of the year on Wednesday in a pitching matchup that I think is the biggest mismatch of no name pitchers i have seen in a long time. Not sure what the line will be, but let's get some cash ready for Wednesday..
We also have Jake going, Peavy starting at home, and a couple other good matches!!
Good luck to all this week!!! Sounds like we have a French Open heavy slate...may I ask that someone put together a French Open recap so we know who is doing well etc. I am solely on baseball due to my lack of any talents in any other sport lol
LOL 2nd Finally Post...Rangers have Yu Darvish set to face pittsburgh on Saturday. I am not sure he has given up more than 1 run in his Rehab (will prob be on pitch count) but this guy was probably the best Rightie in the game at the time he got hurt...I will pull some of his PRE surgery stats and you will be amazed at how good this dude was. I hope he comes back at 85-90% and we will have another monster on our hands!!
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LOL 2nd Finally Post...Rangers have Yu Darvish set to face pittsburgh on Saturday. I am not sure he has given up more than 1 run in his Rehab (will prob be on pitch count) but this guy was probably the best Rightie in the game at the time he got hurt...I will pull some of his PRE surgery stats and you will be amazed at how good this dude was. I hope he comes back at 85-90% and we will have another monster on our hands!!
hey pimp, isn't pelfrey (det) on the gas can / fade list of pitchers? was thinking about throwing a little on the phils. i know that detroits bats are awake now. your thoughts?
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hey pimp, isn't pelfrey (det) on the gas can / fade list of pitchers? was thinking about throwing a little on the phils. i know that detroits bats are awake now. your thoughts?
ONKY REASON THIS IS MY $$$$ PLAY IS BECAUSE OAKLAND IS CATCHING SEATTLE AFTER A CROSS-COUNTRY TRIP COMING HOME FROM OHIO ... SO I LIKE THE A's IN THIS SPOT
$$$$$ OAKLAND A'S $$$$$
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$$$$ OAKLAND A's $$$$$
ONKY REASON THIS IS MY $$$$ PLAY IS BECAUSE OAKLAND IS CATCHING SEATTLE AFTER A CROSS-COUNTRY TRIP COMING HOME FROM OHIO ... SO I LIKE THE A's IN THIS SPOT
Funny I was considering playing the over Kyrie Irving prop (over 22.5) for the same reason. Figured it would be a big bounceback game for him and LeBron would make sure to get him involved.
And the LeBron misses his first 3 of the game prop has been money each game. -200 odds but the man just doesn't shoot 3s well.
Quote Originally Posted by steelersbets:
I'll try my hand with a $$$$ play on a prop bet tonight:
$$$$ LeBron James Over 26 Points -115 $$$$
Coach Lue expressed a concern over the lack of touches/shots LeBron got in game 3... they believe the best chance to win is playing through him, I concur. He only took 17 shots last game yet scored 24 still and his career playoff average is 20 shots for a ppg average of 27.9.
Lebron traditionally responds well to playoff losses. I see him controlling tonight's game on the offensive end with a steady stream of assists, rebounds, put-backs, dunks, etc. He is a facilitator and a play-maker, one of the best we've ever seen. We might enjoy a special performance from him tonight, just a gut feeling.
Also, throwing 1 unit on the following bet:
James Over 41.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists -115
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Funny I was considering playing the over Kyrie Irving prop (over 22.5) for the same reason. Figured it would be a big bounceback game for him and LeBron would make sure to get him involved.
And the LeBron misses his first 3 of the game prop has been money each game. -200 odds but the man just doesn't shoot 3s well.
Quote Originally Posted by steelersbets:
I'll try my hand with a $$$$ play on a prop bet tonight:
$$$$ LeBron James Over 26 Points -115 $$$$
Coach Lue expressed a concern over the lack of touches/shots LeBron got in game 3... they believe the best chance to win is playing through him, I concur. He only took 17 shots last game yet scored 24 still and his career playoff average is 20 shots for a ppg average of 27.9.
Lebron traditionally responds well to playoff losses. I see him controlling tonight's game on the offensive end with a steady stream of assists, rebounds, put-backs, dunks, etc. He is a facilitator and a play-maker, one of the best we've ever seen. We might enjoy a special performance from him tonight, just a gut feeling.
@MrECapps you must be confusing me talking about the game against Falkenberg and this one. Only thing I said about this game against Gefle was that I'm playing them at -110 (see fridays thread post #11) and thinking about making it a $-play, but that the juice might be higher when your bookies offering it. 5Dimes did offer AIK at -135 before the game, higher no doubt but arguably within decent range.
However, I've been out all day for some game day preparation with beer & bbq with the guys and some great weather for a change (not that spoiled with great weather in Sweden).
As I placed the wager before AIK's game on friday, there were later some setbacks after that game and also some more during the weekend. First off, top scorer Carlos Strandberg got in a heated argument with team mate Daniel Sundgren after the final whistle of fridays victory. It ended with Strandberg trying to choke Sundgren, which wasn't very clever. As a result AIK took upon themselves to suspend Strandberg for one game. A major loss in offense as he's scored 7 goals in 9 starts this season, by far the most in AIK. Also, yesterday it was announced that right back Hauksson was injured and wouldn't play today, which meant 18 year old Kpozo would make his debut as left back, with a slight rotation in defense as a result as well. Hauksson have also been great offensively on his right flank and on offensive set pieces with 3 goals so far (second best in AIK). So his absence was no doubt a key for the game. The two players combied had scored 10 of AIK's 18 goals.
With that said, I didn't feel like pushing anything extra for AIK's sake in the game with the juice slightly higher than I got on friday, and the starting lineup a bit worse than expected when I placed my bet. It wasn't so bad that I needed to change my original statement and urge people NOT to take AIK because of it, but still not feeling great enough to make it a $-play as I probably would have if both guys were playing.
Anyway, an ugly 1-0 win for AIK and for any of you who took it early or laid that juice today congrats. Sorry for being AWOL today though.
There's no games until saturday now, and so far I've only got Norrköping ML on sunday. Anything above -120 is still good in my book. I got it at -102 though and that's some nice value in my opinion. There's a great angle to this game that I'll put in my write up, I might post it tomorrow or on wednesday. But it's definitely a $$$$ for me at -102 and still a good one at -120. I still got a book at -105 so hopefully you can get it as well as soon as your books offer it.
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@MrECapps you must be confusing me talking about the game against Falkenberg and this one. Only thing I said about this game against Gefle was that I'm playing them at -110 (see fridays thread post #11) and thinking about making it a $-play, but that the juice might be higher when your bookies offering it. 5Dimes did offer AIK at -135 before the game, higher no doubt but arguably within decent range.
However, I've been out all day for some game day preparation with beer & bbq with the guys and some great weather for a change (not that spoiled with great weather in Sweden).
As I placed the wager before AIK's game on friday, there were later some setbacks after that game and also some more during the weekend. First off, top scorer Carlos Strandberg got in a heated argument with team mate Daniel Sundgren after the final whistle of fridays victory. It ended with Strandberg trying to choke Sundgren, which wasn't very clever. As a result AIK took upon themselves to suspend Strandberg for one game. A major loss in offense as he's scored 7 goals in 9 starts this season, by far the most in AIK. Also, yesterday it was announced that right back Hauksson was injured and wouldn't play today, which meant 18 year old Kpozo would make his debut as left back, with a slight rotation in defense as a result as well. Hauksson have also been great offensively on his right flank and on offensive set pieces with 3 goals so far (second best in AIK). So his absence was no doubt a key for the game. The two players combied had scored 10 of AIK's 18 goals.
With that said, I didn't feel like pushing anything extra for AIK's sake in the game with the juice slightly higher than I got on friday, and the starting lineup a bit worse than expected when I placed my bet. It wasn't so bad that I needed to change my original statement and urge people NOT to take AIK because of it, but still not feeling great enough to make it a $-play as I probably would have if both guys were playing.
Anyway, an ugly 1-0 win for AIK and for any of you who took it early or laid that juice today congrats. Sorry for being AWOL today though.
There's no games until saturday now, and so far I've only got Norrköping ML on sunday. Anything above -120 is still good in my book. I got it at -102 though and that's some nice value in my opinion. There's a great angle to this game that I'll put in my write up, I might post it tomorrow or on wednesday. But it's definitely a $$$$ for me at -102 and still a good one at -120. I still got a book at -105 so hopefully you can get it as well as soon as your books offer it.
After a rough outing Saturday the Cavs look to bounce back and will do so in a decisive fashion. Already posted some thoughts about the game but shooting was historically bad for 2 of the big 3 and Mutombo had a game for the ages. That was an aberration.
Tonight the Cavs come out swinging and look for them to strike early and often. Lebron will get everyone involved deflate Toronto early and keep Lowry and DeRozan from finding a rhythm.
Of course this is all speculation (as any prediction is) but I like the Cavs to win the game and cover. However, my $$ pick is them winning the 1st Q rather handedly.
Other plays:
LAD RL (-149) - Kershaw is off to arguably his best start of his career. Super scary for any opponent especially a Reds team who are 2-12 in their last 14. Finnegan is on the bump for the Reds and has given 3+ ER in his last 6 starts. The Dodgers haven`t been scoring runs but they may need just 2 tonight.
Nats RL (+129) - Good value considering the pitching matchup. Mets are lousy against lefties and Gio is posting 1.16 ERA at home. Colon gives up some runs and the Nats take this one covering the RL.
Also, I like the KC ML play and I`m riding the Rangers with Pimp.
0
$$$$ Pick 0-0-0
Tonight I am taking the NBA: 1Q,Cavs -2 (-132)
After a rough outing Saturday the Cavs look to bounce back and will do so in a decisive fashion. Already posted some thoughts about the game but shooting was historically bad for 2 of the big 3 and Mutombo had a game for the ages. That was an aberration.
Tonight the Cavs come out swinging and look for them to strike early and often. Lebron will get everyone involved deflate Toronto early and keep Lowry and DeRozan from finding a rhythm.
Of course this is all speculation (as any prediction is) but I like the Cavs to win the game and cover. However, my $$ pick is them winning the 1st Q rather handedly.
Other plays:
LAD RL (-149) - Kershaw is off to arguably his best start of his career. Super scary for any opponent especially a Reds team who are 2-12 in their last 14. Finnegan is on the bump for the Reds and has given 3+ ER in his last 6 starts. The Dodgers haven`t been scoring runs but they may need just 2 tonight.
Nats RL (+129) - Good value considering the pitching matchup. Mets are lousy against lefties and Gio is posting 1.16 ERA at home. Colon gives up some runs and the Nats take this one covering the RL.
Also, I like the KC ML play and I`m riding the Rangers with Pimp.
Pelfrey is NOT on my list actually...but he is close to being on it and I have no problem playing against him. Velasquez has been a favorite of mine al season, but I see the Phillies about to slide and Detroit scares me right now....
My list includes Paevy (Cain is coming off this week) Peralta, Simon, Young (Kc on DL) and Pineda (we played OVER on his game yesterday instead of the slumping A's)
I have 4 pitchers about to get ON that list...I am researching those tonight.
Thanks
0
B Shoe
Pelfrey is NOT on my list actually...but he is close to being on it and I have no problem playing against him. Velasquez has been a favorite of mine al season, but I see the Phillies about to slide and Detroit scares me right now....
My list includes Paevy (Cain is coming off this week) Peralta, Simon, Young (Kc on DL) and Pineda (we played OVER on his game yesterday instead of the slumping A's)
I have 4 pitchers about to get ON that list...I am researching those tonight.
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