I am not on here to critique anyone's plays ever, but I wish you luck in the A's game. I think the pitching matchup is even tonight if not edge to Oak...but the A's are so banged up with injuries right now, I just don't see any value here at all.
Take a look at the UNDER...Hill hasn't given up more than 3 all year and Walker can shut anyone out on a given night.
I wrote up a brief PLAY ON Seattle post earlier, but that was for 10 games and I really think this will be their hardest game outside of that 2 game try to SD next week.
But either way, good luck, I am NOT playing it...just keeping tabs on my Seattle (NEXT 10 Games PLAY).
Just trying to help!!!
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Nic Ice-
I am not on here to critique anyone's plays ever, but I wish you luck in the A's game. I think the pitching matchup is even tonight if not edge to Oak...but the A's are so banged up with injuries right now, I just don't see any value here at all.
Take a look at the UNDER...Hill hasn't given up more than 3 all year and Walker can shut anyone out on a given night.
I wrote up a brief PLAY ON Seattle post earlier, but that was for 10 games and I really think this will be their hardest game outside of that 2 game try to SD next week.
But either way, good luck, I am NOT playing it...just keeping tabs on my Seattle (NEXT 10 Games PLAY).
I love it! This hobby requires some humor or we all become nut cases. I haven't smiled much since the CAV's collapse at TOR. Thanks, Brackson, for bringing the smile back.
Well, I can't seem to provide any winners for the group, so it's nice to hear I've made some kind of positive impact! Sorry to hear about your Cavs loss. Keep your head up and get back on track tonight. Cheers!
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Quote Originally Posted by MaxWagner:
I love it! This hobby requires some humor or we all become nut cases. I haven't smiled much since the CAV's collapse at TOR. Thanks, Brackson, for bringing the smile back.
Well, I can't seem to provide any winners for the group, so it's nice to hear I've made some kind of positive impact! Sorry to hear about your Cavs loss. Keep your head up and get back on track tonight. Cheers!
Seattle (Play on play) due to Hill starting for Oakland
Final Card for the Nation:
1. Texas +101 This is much more of a support play for Texas and Fade the Angels...nothing more. I think I have a slight edge in pitching and a decent edge (esp :Lefties) in the batting department. Texas may have found their closer in Dyson. We will see
2. Royals -124 I think this is a good spot for KC tonight. Great value and that scares me just a little bit as I think the line is off. I think Nolasco is trending poorly, and I actually like Kennedy. We will see LOL
3. SF under 6.5 I wrote about this earlier. I am hoping 3-1 final by SF as I have an OVER SEASON TOTAL on SF.
No parlays tonight...trying to build a bankroll for a big Wednesday night!!
Oh, I put 1 unit on each of these. Won 8 Units last weeks (less some juice etc) Not bad with one horrible night that I am still not over!!!
Good luck!!
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I passed on 2 plays tonight:
Washington Run Line due to weather concerns
Seattle (Play on play) due to Hill starting for Oakland
Final Card for the Nation:
1. Texas +101 This is much more of a support play for Texas and Fade the Angels...nothing more. I think I have a slight edge in pitching and a decent edge (esp :Lefties) in the batting department. Texas may have found their closer in Dyson. We will see
2. Royals -124 I think this is a good spot for KC tonight. Great value and that scares me just a little bit as I think the line is off. I think Nolasco is trending poorly, and I actually like Kennedy. We will see LOL
3. SF under 6.5 I wrote about this earlier. I am hoping 3-1 final by SF as I have an OVER SEASON TOTAL on SF.
No parlays tonight...trying to build a bankroll for a big Wednesday night!!
Oh, I put 1 unit on each of these. Won 8 Units last weeks (less some juice etc) Not bad with one horrible night that I am still not over!!!
$$$ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS vs TORONTO RAPTORS UNDER 197 $$$$
This should be a physical Game 4. With Raps picking up their defense in Game 3. And Cavs starting to put clamps on DeRozan and Lowry.
One poster in NBA Forum, 3BB, posted that ref trends points to a Cavs win. As two of the game officials officiated two Cleveland games and both won, home and away. And two road wins in the playoffs in the west.
I may like Cavs to win this Game, but not sure as a whole nation is backing the Raps in their home court.
So I'm sticking to the UNDER play here. Especially that LeBron will be the facilitator on offense, based on Lue's comments after last game. LBJ will be eating up more minutes in directing plays rather than scoring big time.
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$$$ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS vs TORONTO RAPTORS UNDER 197 $$$$
This should be a physical Game 4. With Raps picking up their defense in Game 3. And Cavs starting to put clamps on DeRozan and Lowry.
One poster in NBA Forum, 3BB, posted that ref trends points to a Cavs win. As two of the game officials officiated two Cleveland games and both won, home and away. And two road wins in the playoffs in the west.
I may like Cavs to win this Game, but not sure as a whole nation is backing the Raps in their home court.
So I'm sticking to the UNDER play here. Especially that LeBron will be the facilitator on offense, based on Lue's comments after last game. LBJ will be eating up more minutes in directing plays rather than scoring big time.
Like your card tonight Pimp. I kept the Washington play in spite of the weather. Figured if sitting around for an extra hour or two would have a negative impact on anyone, it would be the old man Bartolo. I feel like he does more damage to his back every time he decides to swing. Hopefully he's getting stiff and the humidity is making his arthritis flare up. We shall see. Good luck tonight!
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Quote Originally Posted by PimpNation:
I passed on 2 plays tonight:
Washington Run Line due to weather concerns
Like your card tonight Pimp. I kept the Washington play in spite of the weather. Figured if sitting around for an extra hour or two would have a negative impact on anyone, it would be the old man Bartolo. I feel like he does more damage to his back every time he decides to swing. Hopefully he's getting stiff and the humidity is making his arthritis flare up. We shall see. Good luck tonight!
B NICE, thank you for the shout out. honor to be here and announce my presence with a nice W in early morning tennis.
Chardy cruised as predicted. Good luck to everyone and thank you all for the insight. This is an incredible network and we should use every bit of info we find here as we keep seeking for ways to beat vegas. lets get it. $$$
not money plays as i won mine earlier but..
I'm on marlins, nats, royals.
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B NICE, thank you for the shout out. honor to be here and announce my presence with a nice W in early morning tennis.
Chardy cruised as predicted. Good luck to everyone and thank you all for the insight. This is an incredible network and we should use every bit of info we find here as we keep seeking for ways to beat vegas. lets get it. $$$
Any interest in Cincy at +295? Kershaw had to pinch hit in that extra innings game and I wonder if this will have any effect on his fatigue/routine?
Unless Kershaw took the field after his pinch hitting and played short stop for 6 innings, I think it is safe to assume he will be okay for tonight. I have not bet this game yet, looking into a few things.
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Quote Originally Posted by Davitch:
Any interest in Cincy at +295? Kershaw had to pinch hit in that extra innings game and I wonder if this will have any effect on his fatigue/routine?
Unless Kershaw took the field after his pinch hitting and played short stop for 6 innings, I think it is safe to assume he will be okay for tonight. I have not bet this game yet, looking into a few things.
This line today for KC/Minny does seem fishy. I guess part of it is due to the fact that KC is missing two everyday players in Moustakas and Gordon thanks to that collision yesterday. Reports say Gordon will miss up to a month. We will have to see how this affects KC offensive output. They looked to be regaining their mojo up till this point.
@Par_Laid - Forgot to say but I tailed ya on that 1Q over 50.5 Cavs bet. Slow start to game but now teams are picking up the pace. Looks to be a tight finish right around 48-54 points.
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This line today for KC/Minny does seem fishy. I guess part of it is due to the fact that KC is missing two everyday players in Moustakas and Gordon thanks to that collision yesterday. Reports say Gordon will miss up to a month. We will have to see how this affects KC offensive output. They looked to be regaining their mojo up till this point.
@Par_Laid - Forgot to say but I tailed ya on that 1Q over 50.5 Cavs bet. Slow start to game but now teams are picking up the pace. Looks to be a tight finish right around 48-54 points.
Yeah, made me sweat a little bit but they're clearly pushing the pace with lebron facilitating, I'm going ahead and rolling it into a live full game over 197.5 expecting the cav's 3's to start dropping soon.
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Yeah, made me sweat a little bit but they're clearly pushing the pace with lebron facilitating, I'm going ahead and rolling it into a live full game over 197.5 expecting the cav's 3's to start dropping soon.
Ok, that does it -- there's no way in the flying eff that the Nationals would cover the RL, now that the Met's have hit the shiat out of Gonzalez.
I had already made a play on the Nationals' RL early in the day, but seeing everyone jump on that bandwagon made me nervous, as it's a sign to me that the opposite side would win, as it far too often does when so many are on one side.
I've watched a good number of games so far with the streaming that I've been using and there's one important thing that I've noticed, and that's when a pitcher starts out in a game, from the very first pitch, if he's off and not quite on his game, he's more than likely going to be shelled.
I've seen this time and time again.
Gonzalez, for example, started out a bit shaky with a high pitch count and allowing some hits; now the Mets have already scored 5 runs on him and seem to be poised to crush the Nationals.
Maybe going with live betting fading pitchers having rough starts and control issues at the starts of games might be the way to go?
Even with teams that suck, the talent level in MLB is so high that any starting pitcher has to be on his game in order to not get shelled, it seems.
So, maybe watching the earliest innings watching the starting pitchers closely might be a good way to go -- and to play on teams with good bullpens, as well to fade teams with bad bullpens if their normally-good pitchers would be having shaky starts.
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Ok, that does it -- there's no way in the flying eff that the Nationals would cover the RL, now that the Met's have hit the shiat out of Gonzalez.
I had already made a play on the Nationals' RL early in the day, but seeing everyone jump on that bandwagon made me nervous, as it's a sign to me that the opposite side would win, as it far too often does when so many are on one side.
I've watched a good number of games so far with the streaming that I've been using and there's one important thing that I've noticed, and that's when a pitcher starts out in a game, from the very first pitch, if he's off and not quite on his game, he's more than likely going to be shelled.
I've seen this time and time again.
Gonzalez, for example, started out a bit shaky with a high pitch count and allowing some hits; now the Mets have already scored 5 runs on him and seem to be poised to crush the Nationals.
Maybe going with live betting fading pitchers having rough starts and control issues at the starts of games might be the way to go?
Even with teams that suck, the talent level in MLB is so high that any starting pitcher has to be on his game in order to not get shelled, it seems.
So, maybe watching the earliest innings watching the starting pitchers closely might be a good way to go -- and to play on teams with good bullpens, as well to fade teams with bad bullpens if their normally-good pitchers would be having shaky starts.
$$$$ Kershaw prop bet innings pitched (-2) (-150) vs Finnegan $$$$
I'm hoping my extremely slow start to May is now behind me. After a rough stretch, went 3-1 in $$ plays last week.
Been looking at this Dodger game. To pick a side, I think it would be very hard to justify backing Reds at any price due to how poorly their team is playing (both offense and pitching), plus the fact that Kershaw is currently pitching the best baseball of his life.
Having said that, I'm also a bit leery of backing the Dodgers offense directly after that 17 inning marathon. Plus there is a slight breeze blowing out to right field, and Reds have two lefties that have done decent against Kershaw in the past in Votto and Bruce.
So, the play I am making on this game is a pitching prop in innings pitched Finnegan vs. Kershaw. Kershaw is giving up 2 innings and is a big -150 juice on top of that. However, I think it is *very* likely that Kershaw will have the mindset of pitching a complete game tonight. Dodgers used 8 relief pitchers yesterday + Jansen pitched 1 1/3 innings himself. Kershaw has gone at least 7 innings in every home game including two complete games and one game with 8 innings.
Finnegan on the other hand averages 5 1/2 innings on average per road start and lasted only 4 innings his last road start. His problems stem from the fact that he is not an efficient pitcher at all. He has more walks than strikeouts on the road this year. He wastes too many pitches and thus is not likely to last more than 6 innings.
$$$$ Kershaw prop bet innings pitched (-2) (-150) vs Finnegan $$$$
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$$$$ Kershaw prop bet innings pitched (-2) (-150) vs Finnegan $$$$
I'm hoping my extremely slow start to May is now behind me. After a rough stretch, went 3-1 in $$ plays last week.
Been looking at this Dodger game. To pick a side, I think it would be very hard to justify backing Reds at any price due to how poorly their team is playing (both offense and pitching), plus the fact that Kershaw is currently pitching the best baseball of his life.
Having said that, I'm also a bit leery of backing the Dodgers offense directly after that 17 inning marathon. Plus there is a slight breeze blowing out to right field, and Reds have two lefties that have done decent against Kershaw in the past in Votto and Bruce.
So, the play I am making on this game is a pitching prop in innings pitched Finnegan vs. Kershaw. Kershaw is giving up 2 innings and is a big -150 juice on top of that. However, I think it is *very* likely that Kershaw will have the mindset of pitching a complete game tonight. Dodgers used 8 relief pitchers yesterday + Jansen pitched 1 1/3 innings himself. Kershaw has gone at least 7 innings in every home game including two complete games and one game with 8 innings.
Finnegan on the other hand averages 5 1/2 innings on average per road start and lasted only 4 innings his last road start. His problems stem from the fact that he is not an efficient pitcher at all. He has more walks than strikeouts on the road this year. He wastes too many pitches and thus is not likely to last more than 6 innings.
$$$$ Kershaw prop bet innings pitched (-2) (-150) vs Finnegan $$$$
Fellow board posters, after taking a closer look at the thread rules posted in this daily thread, I see that a lot of my plays are potentially in violation. It says no prop bets, yet a lot of my $$ plays have been prop bets. So, I will let the board decide (especially Bubbaski who puts in the hard work keeping tabs of all the plays) if this should be allowed or not.
If not, then I apologize. I like this daily thread and find it very helpful. Knowing that the goal is the sharing of info rather than worrying about $$ plays or whatever, so I would be fine in not allowing my prop bets anymore as counting for the leader board. I will still post them though, assuming folks feel there is value in them.
Cheers and best of luck to our plays today. Figures that as soon as KC jumps all over Nolasco there is a rain delay LOL. I hope this game manages to complete, as KC bullpen ranks in top 3 while Twins bullpen ranks in bottom 3.
Also figures that Gio gets his hat handed to him today by Mets. Sometimes it is tough to pitch well vs an opponent again when they faced you just last week. Oh well, got them both this game and for series. Oops.
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Fellow board posters, after taking a closer look at the thread rules posted in this daily thread, I see that a lot of my plays are potentially in violation. It says no prop bets, yet a lot of my $$ plays have been prop bets. So, I will let the board decide (especially Bubbaski who puts in the hard work keeping tabs of all the plays) if this should be allowed or not.
If not, then I apologize. I like this daily thread and find it very helpful. Knowing that the goal is the sharing of info rather than worrying about $$ plays or whatever, so I would be fine in not allowing my prop bets anymore as counting for the leader board. I will still post them though, assuming folks feel there is value in them.
Cheers and best of luck to our plays today. Figures that as soon as KC jumps all over Nolasco there is a rain delay LOL. I hope this game manages to complete, as KC bullpen ranks in top 3 while Twins bullpen ranks in bottom 3.
Also figures that Gio gets his hat handed to him today by Mets. Sometimes it is tough to pitch well vs an opponent again when they faced you just last week. Oh well, got them both this game and for series. Oops.
As mentioned in my post at end of page 2 (mostly regarding the AIK game), I've got $$$$ Norrköping on sunday and the write up is ready but I'll wait and post it in tomorrow's thread. Also may have something $-worthy on saturday as well.
BOL with cashing your tickets tonight everyone.
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As mentioned in my post at end of page 2 (mostly regarding the AIK game), I've got $$$$ Norrköping on sunday and the write up is ready but I'll wait and post it in tomorrow's thread. Also may have something $-worthy on saturday as well.
Just an opinion, I think that prop bets indicate a level of expertise not available to everyone and should be shared if one feels very strongly about them. However they should require a minimum amount of write up to prove that there is an edge. Obviously we shouldn't go trigger happy with the prop bets and they should mostly be an addendum unless you're absolutely convinced. But this thread has been showing a level of respect and maturity recently that I think we can handle a little bit of flexibility with the rules as long as it doesn't get out of hand. I'd appreciate some input from the regs and moderators/
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Just an opinion, I think that prop bets indicate a level of expertise not available to everyone and should be shared if one feels very strongly about them. However they should require a minimum amount of write up to prove that there is an edge. Obviously we shouldn't go trigger happy with the prop bets and they should mostly be an addendum unless you're absolutely convinced. But this thread has been showing a level of respect and maturity recently that I think we can handle a little bit of flexibility with the rules as long as it doesn't get out of hand. I'd appreciate some input from the regs and moderators/
I see someone else beat me to it, but here are my reasons for picking this one:
- Gio Gonzalez has allowed a total of four runs in his last six stars (37 innings) agains the Mets. He has one non-quality start on the year, and that was at Wrigley when the Cubs were absolutely rolling offensively.
- Bartolo's only four quality starts of the year are against Philly (2), Atlanta and San Diego. Those teams are all in the bottom five in the majors in nearly every offensive category.
- The Nats aren't great offensively, but they are certainly more capable than those three squads. They've scored 5+ in five of their last ten, and three of the games they didn't reach 5 runs were against Jose Fernandez (2) and Noah Syndergaard.
- Even with this weekend's sweep of Milwaukee, the Mets' offense continues to struggle. I know I mentioned this when I took the Mets TT under the other day (and lost), but they've scored more than four runs once in the last 14 games (the game I took the TT under 4). That period included three games against Dodgers pitchers not named Kershaw and three games at Colorado.
- In the end, I think it will take 4+ runs for the Mets to have a chance in this one. Even with Bartolo having a career year at the plate, I don't think they get there.
Best of luck to everyone today. If I lose this one, I just want to genuinely apologize to lltb43 for jinxing his pick.
Please, Please, Please about the three late games. I'm trying to win some money back. lol
Money is a good servant, but a bad master
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Quote Originally Posted by brackson13:
$$$$ WAS -1.5 (+145) $$$$
$$$$ Record 0-2-1
I see someone else beat me to it, but here are my reasons for picking this one:
- Gio Gonzalez has allowed a total of four runs in his last six stars (37 innings) agains the Mets. He has one non-quality start on the year, and that was at Wrigley when the Cubs were absolutely rolling offensively.
- Bartolo's only four quality starts of the year are against Philly (2), Atlanta and San Diego. Those teams are all in the bottom five in the majors in nearly every offensive category.
- The Nats aren't great offensively, but they are certainly more capable than those three squads. They've scored 5+ in five of their last ten, and three of the games they didn't reach 5 runs were against Jose Fernandez (2) and Noah Syndergaard.
- Even with this weekend's sweep of Milwaukee, the Mets' offense continues to struggle. I know I mentioned this when I took the Mets TT under the other day (and lost), but they've scored more than four runs once in the last 14 games (the game I took the TT under 4). That period included three games against Dodgers pitchers not named Kershaw and three games at Colorado.
- In the end, I think it will take 4+ runs for the Mets to have a chance in this one. Even with Bartolo having a career year at the plate, I don't think they get there.
Best of luck to everyone today. If I lose this one, I just want to genuinely apologize to lltb43 for jinxing his pick.
Please, Please, Please about the three late games. I'm trying to win some money back. lol
Please, Please, Please about the three late games. I'm trying to win some money back. lol
Haha. I have no money on the line in the late games, and I will keep any leans to my damn self. You should be safe. Glad to see most of the other games in the thread going the right way today. Good luck recouping your losses this evening. We should have known better than to place our trust in people that work in DC.
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Quote Originally Posted by lltb43:
Please, Please, Please about the three late games. I'm trying to win some money back. lol
Haha. I have no money on the line in the late games, and I will keep any leans to my damn self. You should be safe. Glad to see most of the other games in the thread going the right way today. Good luck recouping your losses this evening. We should have known better than to place our trust in people that work in DC.
After watching the Cavs game with a close eye on the bovada live model. I noticed two very exploitable opportunities, the second of which I attempted to post on the forum ASAP.
When the cavs started getting blown out in the 2nd quarter the live line dropped to +8.5 (-140) then +9 (-130) Cavs I thought this was a bit of an over reaction, but the juice was large enough to deter me.
At the half the score was 41 - 57 with the cavs shooting under 40% from the field and under 14% from the 3-pt. The Raptors were shooting 55% from the field and 36% from 3-pt, so I thought they were due for a slight regression but not both stats. So the total assuming a repeat production would be 196, however it's a historical fact that in the shot clock era, games are higher scoring in the 2nd half. The cavs 2nd half spread was -9 (-120) and the total 97 so the model assumed the 2nd half score would be 44 - 53 cavs. Add another 5% to the fg% and the cavs hit a few more 3's and a 12 point swing for the cavs is easily attainable, but the raptors offense which was humming would have to literally take a dump.
The over was 197.5 (-120) and even dropped as low as 192.5 (-120) early third quarter.
Easy $$$$, hoping you guys tailed any of my plays to help make up for the Sunday Night trauma. 4-1 on the night overall with an early hit on the $$$$ play, gotta ride your winners
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After watching the Cavs game with a close eye on the bovada live model. I noticed two very exploitable opportunities, the second of which I attempted to post on the forum ASAP.
When the cavs started getting blown out in the 2nd quarter the live line dropped to +8.5 (-140) then +9 (-130) Cavs I thought this was a bit of an over reaction, but the juice was large enough to deter me.
At the half the score was 41 - 57 with the cavs shooting under 40% from the field and under 14% from the 3-pt. The Raptors were shooting 55% from the field and 36% from 3-pt, so I thought they were due for a slight regression but not both stats. So the total assuming a repeat production would be 196, however it's a historical fact that in the shot clock era, games are higher scoring in the 2nd half. The cavs 2nd half spread was -9 (-120) and the total 97 so the model assumed the 2nd half score would be 44 - 53 cavs. Add another 5% to the fg% and the cavs hit a few more 3's and a 12 point swing for the cavs is easily attainable, but the raptors offense which was humming would have to literally take a dump.
The over was 197.5 (-120) and even dropped as low as 192.5 (-120) early third quarter.
Easy $$$$, hoping you guys tailed any of my plays to help make up for the Sunday Night trauma. 4-1 on the night overall with an early hit on the $$$$ play, gotta ride your winners
*3-1, Lebron only had 6 assists, but capping the full game I could tell he'd have a bigger impact on the game than recently. Shout out to @steelersbets for the first post on those props
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*3-1, Lebron only had 6 assists, but capping the full game I could tell he'd have a bigger impact on the game than recently. Shout out to @steelersbets for the first post on those props
While I figured the Dodger bats would do their usual semi-hibernation thing when Kershaw pitches, tonight was something else. They *knew* they were facing a pitcher that threw as many balls as strikes, yet still they chose to chase. At some point Dave Roberts needs to be accountable for these kinds of things. Grrrrrrrrrr......
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While I figured the Dodger bats would do their usual semi-hibernation thing when Kershaw pitches, tonight was something else. They *knew* they were facing a pitcher that threw as many balls as strikes, yet still they chose to chase. At some point Dave Roberts needs to be accountable for these kinds of things. Grrrrrrrrrr......
I had already made a play on the Nationals' RL early in the day, but seeing everyone jump on that bandwagon made me nervous, as it's a sign to me that the opposite side would win, as it far too often does when so many are on one side.
Purely out of curiosity ... Is this a superstition thing or do you think once a play becomes too one sided a fix is in?
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Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:
I had already made a play on the Nationals' RL early in the day, but seeing everyone jump on that bandwagon made me nervous, as it's a sign to me that the opposite side would win, as it far too often does when so many are on one side.
Purely out of curiosity ... Is this a superstition thing or do you think once a play becomes too one sided a fix is in?
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about the three late games. I'm trying to win some money back. lol 
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