In years past, this would appear to be a totally dumb play
because of the Cardinals impressive home record over the last few years. But things appear to have changed a bit for
both Stl and Colorado.
Basically, this game looks like an even match up
based on season to date stats.
Both teams are close offensively with STL ranked 2nd
in weighted on base average but COL is right behind them ranked 6th. Essentially even in regard to offensive
production.
Bullpen stats have give a slight edge to the Rockies at
11ths while STL is ranked 14.
Since the above numbers are virtually even, I would expect
this game to be decided by the starting pitchers – Wacha for STL and Gray for
COL
Wacha is the bigger name in this match up and he is having a
decent year with a FIP and XFIP of 3.63 and 3.94 vs 3.23 ERA. However, Wacha could be due for some small negative
regression based on these numbers. Gray
however is pitching much better than his 4.23 ERA suggests since his FIP and
XFIP are very good at 2.32 and 2.19
respectively. With these kinds of
numbers, Gray is poised to have some significant positive regression begin and probably
very soon.
Since the stats suggest that this game should be even with
perhaps a very slight edge to Col, I am going to take Colorado as a road dog
against St Louis at Col +128.
$$$$$ Play
In years past, this would appear to be a totally dumb play
because of the Cardinals impressive home record over the last few years. But things appear to have changed a bit for
both Stl and Colorado.
Basically, this game looks like an even match up
based on season to date stats.
Both teams are close offensively with STL ranked 2nd
in weighted on base average but COL is right behind them ranked 6th. Essentially even in regard to offensive
production.
Bullpen stats have give a slight edge to the Rockies at
11ths while STL is ranked 14.
Since the above numbers are virtually even, I would expect
this game to be decided by the starting pitchers – Wacha for STL and Gray for
COL
Wacha is the bigger name in this match up and he is having a
decent year with a FIP and XFIP of 3.63 and 3.94 vs 3.23 ERA. However, Wacha could be due for some small negative
regression based on these numbers. Gray
however is pitching much better than his 4.23 ERA suggests since his FIP and
XFIP are very good at 2.32 and 2.19
respectively. With these kinds of
numbers, Gray is poised to have some significant positive regression begin and probably
very soon.
Since the stats suggest that this game should be even with
perhaps a very slight edge to Col, I am going to take Colorado as a road dog
against St Louis at Col +128.
$$$$$ Play
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