Bubba's $$$$ Thread ~ THURSDAY ~ Post Your BEST Play (With Write-up) ~ 05/19/16

@newmi - thanks again for another winner!  I bow down to your Sweden soccer league knowledge

@board - lots of good looking MLB bets today it seems.  I have not read the full thread yet, just wanted to post my thoughts on the soon to start games

Rockies Jon Gray pitching prop innings pitched versus Wacha (+135)  - I like this pick at the + money as Gray has done very well on the road lately and lasting a lot of innings.  Combine that with a scuffling St Louis offense, and I think Gray has more than a fighting chance to win this bet.  Wacha is decent as well of course.  Thought about making this a $$ play but game is about to start.

Atl/Pitt over 8 - Locke just sucks, period.  I am not a fan of Atl pitcher either, but he has his moments.  Wind slightly blowing out.  I almost played Atl team total o3.5 but instead picked the full game over.  Hopefully both hit!

CWS with Sale - lotta juice but not too bad considering he is at home going up against a guy in McHugh that I do not have a lot of faith with on the road.  Ride with Sale until the horse bucks I say.

Toronto Jays - Man they are in a slump but now at least to go up against Minny pitching.  Hoping for a break out in their hitting starting today.

Dodger/Angels over 7.5  - Angel bats are on fire right now, and I do not trust Stripling (yet).  Certainly think Chacin is bleh as well, but who knows what this motley lineup of Dodger bats will do game to game.  Thought about Angels team total over as well.

And have also bet the first half with Newmi-like results

Too many on Nationals....scared me away

Whoa guys my pick for Astros TT UNDER 3.5 is now at 1.83, was just at 1.64! Good thing I didn't place my bet yet.

$$$ picks gotta be under -150

As pimp said, he was joking about the UBER bill, and I thought it was very funny.  Also, I think he meant to say Swedish soccer game, not hockey game.  On the other hand, for pimp and many of us, who cares what kind of game it is?  We're just following Newmi blindly on something we know nothing about, and it has frequently gotten us off on a good start to the day.
Thank you Newmi!

Killed it this am in tennis +5 units. If anyone is interested ill start posting my tennis plays.

Other plays I'm on tonite.
Nat's (1unit)
Indians (1unit)
Giants (1unit)
Yankees (1unit)
Sharks ML (1unit)
Debating on Cavs

ML Parlay paying 9 to 1.... (1/2 unit)
Cws ML
Giants ML
Yankees ML
Nat's ML

I am surprised how this 3 teamer payout is pretty nice.   I just need to hit the 3 teamer and let the tennis to be a some what of an automatic win. 

I have no idea why I like to shoot out these multi legs parlays.  It is hard enough to hit 2, let alone more. 

5/19/16 7:13pm	$89.04	$717.31	Pending	6 Team Parlay
				Pending	5/19/16 8:35pm  NBA Basketball  708 Cleveland Cavaliers -10 -145* vs Toronto Raptors
				Pending	5/19/16 9:10pm  MLB Baseball  909 San Francisco Giants -1 -120* vs San Diego Padres  (J Samardzija - R must Start   J Shields - R must Start)
				Pending	5/19/16 9:05pm  NHL Hockey  12 San Jose Sharks -1 +122* vs St. Louis Blues
				Pending	5/20/16 10:00am  ATP Tennis  101 Stanislas Wawrinka -900* vs Lukas Rosol
				Pending	5/20/16 9:45am  ATP Tennis  401 Dominic Thiem -900* vs Adrian Mannarino
				Pending	5/20/16 5:15am  Qualifying Tennis  3213 Sorana Cirstea -1500* vs Elise Mertens

do the tennis.  I only know the top 10 players in the world for both men and women and that's about it.  I got my parlays getting killed with -700 and -800 odds in thinking that it has to be an automatic win.  Blew my mind one time when ranked 100 lost to ranked 650. 

@newmi - dude, I would just keep listing the soccer bets you like the most with your plays, don't feel pressured to deviate from your winning strategy just cuz others do not have the same betting options.  Of course, it is nice of you to list potential alternative bets for those with more limited options. Also, LOL at MaxWagner who nailed the power of the blind faith tail in newmi.  At this point, if newmi advised to take Obrero to beat team gefelterfish in a game of tiddlywinks, I would be hunting for a place to take that wager.

@topflight - I tried to convince myself that Toronto was worth a play today, but I just could not do it.  Thought about the over, that might be an okay play.  Cavs played game 1 at a super quick pace leading to lots of possessions for both teams.  If Toronto just shot the 3 ball a bit better, the over would have easily hit.  Hard to think Toronto will shoot that badly again?  I put a 1u wager on Cavs full game over 198

@Bluejay_Way - I had similar analysis in that Rockies game as you which lead me to take the prop bet for Jon Gray.  Sadly, looks like his excellent road pitching streak is over.  While my bet looks like burnt toast, I hope you can still win yours.  I see Rockies just scored a few top of 3rd.  Good luck!

@Matt2688/BrightSizeLife - thanks fellas for the congrats.  Yesterday was exactly what I needed to restore some order to my betting account.  Things were getting a bit sideways for me the past 2 weeks.  I thought hard about the SJ Sharks play, but I have been a curse for any NHL bets lately.  Thus, will leave that game alone and hopefully Sharks keep up their solid play

@Pimp - That Yankee game is interesting.  According to the weather site I check, wind is blowing out at a solid 20mph clip.  Hard to know for sure though what the real conditions are on the field.  Still, I guess there is a reason why the total for this game is 8 for an As night game in May, heh. 

@theSleeper - When I read your $$ play and description I had to scratch my head as to how I missed this line.  I agree with all of your points and think under 7 is the play.  I'm looking further into these pitchers.  Just from memory Samardzija's last few starts have been stellar, and Shields home splits are equally impressive.  You are dead on as well about the weather.  I live in socal, and it is quite chilly and foggy on the coast.  In fact, it is making me rethink that over 7.5 bet I put on the Angels game. 

@thread - whoever made Nats the $$ play or bet on them, congrats!  Looking incredibly solid so far, a veritable scoring outburst by Washington. 

@lakers  sheesh man, do one for me too. 

I heard someone on the radio said that for toronto to win, their top 2 guys need to push out 40+ points. 

Toronto will get their shot once they are at home but away, lebum and company is just too strong.  They might cover but will not win SU...  so I think thus why I bought it down to -10 for lebum.   Kevin love has been quiet eh?  With his support tonight and irving and lebum playing at average pace, it will be hard for toronto to win this game.  They just need to shoot better if they wanna win plus hoping that cleveland is going to choke.  Poor shooting percentage is the recipe for disaster.  Whoever wants more with a little bit of luck will prevail

Game time now.   Smell you guys later. 

@nfl_brosuf - you got it!  You have been on a very nice run, and I am sure it will continue for ya.  Cheers, and I agree that winning a nice 4 team parlay turns a good day into a great one!

@thread - go Rockies!  Even pitcher Gray got a hit to help his cause. 

sorry for the posting puffery everyone, I think I am done now LOL

$$$ TORONTO RAPTORS +11.5 $$$

Toronto has gotten the feel of playing in a Conference Finals. And after Game 1, DeRozan said that they will be more aggressive. First time in their career games together that none of DeRozan nor Lowry got to the free throw line in Game 1.

Also, for the current postseason, Toronto finds a way of not losing two consecutive games during the first two rounds. I know Cavs are a different monster, but I see the Raptors doing everything to fight this out. Seeing this as a close game, possibly OT. Cleveland winning, but Raptors covering the spread, maybe Cavs by 6-8 pts.

Pirates are looking good.  

You're probably right but nobody likes a quitter. Finally hit an over in the pens/lightning series last night. Decided to go very big on the Sharks TT over 2.5 tonight. hopefully Elliot doesn't go all Dominik Hasket in his prime against me tonight!!!

$$$$ San Diego Padres full game under 7 $$$$

theSleeper put up a nice summary of why this bet seems to be a compelling play.  It got me to look more into it, and I keep liking what I see, and I will give a few more reasons why this is the play.

For starters, we will look further at Samardzija.  He pitched against Padres a month ago at home and did not fare well.  So makes one think hold off here on taking the under.  But wait!  Samardzija is one of those guys where it pays to look at his day/night splits.  He has one of the starkest differences of any pitcher one can find there.  In day games Samardzija seems to *always* struggle, whereis in night games he is on point.  In his 5 night games this season he sports a sterling 1.91ERA with a WHIP of 0.96 and .212 BAA.  In other words, he has been great.  He also has a good historical record pitching vs Pads, especially if you throw out the day games!

Looking at the Padres lineup, the only guy who seems to have Samardzija's number is Jon Jay who returns to the lineup after a shoulder injury.  All his hits off him are just singles though.  Plus let's face it, the Padres are not a good hitting bunch.  Kemp is in a funk similar to last year.

James Shields has put together a decent year of pitching if one ignores his win/loss record.  He has pitched better on the road this season strangely enough (considering San Diego has the ultimate pitcher's park), but his home splits are decent enough.  Shields does own a nice looking historical average vs Giants (WHIP of 1, BAA < .200), and his last start against them a month ago he was great, going 7 innings of 3 hit ball.

Looking at the Giants lineup, Panik has had some success against Shields as well as Belt (in limited at bats though).  All the other Giants hitters cannot say the same. 

theSleeper already mentioned the weather which is *really* gloomy and rather chilly with the marine layer that brings high humidity and should be an effective shield against harder hit fly balls.

Overall, I like this play and am not sure why the total is at 7.  Two good pitchers that have had good success against their opponent and nice looking stats for night games.  Gotta roll with the under 7.

$$$$ San Diego Padres full game under 7 $$$$

I don't mind me quitting if it means I stop losing at a certain sport LOL.  You are the king of NHL though and absolutely should keep making your bets.

Man, it looks like Toronto Blue Jays offensive funk continues here even against Minny.  Go figure.

I ended up tailing on Yankees.  Read where Graveman has been giving up a lot of home runs during this rough stretch, plus Nova's runs given up last two starts have both been via home run.  With that wind blowing out that could be good for the over 8.  As bats have been en fuego as well.

I missed out on the Padres/Giants Under but just got it at 8 on the live line after the Giants scored a run.  Not sure if that is a good or a bad thing

The playoffs have been good to me, however these conference finals are off to a so-so start. Could use this W tonight! Good luck with your SD under sir... Hopefully the only points being put on the board tonight in CA are goals by the Sharks!!

Houston-

Sales tomlin n strasburg all moving on with perfect record. The only loss is hammel n cubbies cot dang it.

Now back to the games in hoping wishing n praying. Lets go money. I won 101 over lebum 1st half. Took profit n split in two and played 3rd qrt lebum -2 and 2nd half -2.5.

Not so sure now but its a free roll so i no care. Just win by 10 for me. My parlay i posted sure looks nice if win.

MATT2688........nice work buddy

UNREAL- Yanks have 3 hits in the inning and 2 base running errors.  Cmon Man!!!!