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Bubba's $$$$ Thread TUESDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 04.26.16

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Posted: #26
Nice job NEWMI.. Keep up those good soccer locks
 
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Posted: #27
missed the early soccer  play. quality information and a true insider! Way to be newmi!  Im going to have to start checking this thread out earlier to make sure i dont miss out on these Soccer plays. Easy $$$$
 
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Posted: #28
Afternoon Everyone: 

Decent day on Monday  Blazer $ Line really helped out late (Sucks about CPaul...one of the greats to watch)  Cleveland really pissed me off yesterday.  outhit the Twinkies 12-4 or 5 and lose on a walk off.  Again, I think we were def on the right side, just couldn't pull it off.

Initial Thoughts:  Dr2Half  Fenway Park is another building like Wrigley where the lines are totally affected by weather.  Colorado is one that seems to get a little more attention (mainly because the lines drift from 8 to 12.5 sometimes.)  But I like the Under tonight as well.

KC:  Lost on KC last night and I will try not to be stubborn when fading Angels and playing KC.  Look, I have talked too much about veteran pitchers who show up and "simply get people out"  Latos, and other examples etc.  But guys like Charlie Morton can do it for a few games and then the walls collapse whether it be injury or simply father time. 

So watch out fro Weaver.  There is NO way humanly possible that Weaver has a wining record this year with the Angels bats.  Of course, the Angels are not horrible (only because they have Trout, Pujols does not scare anyone anymore)  Yes, he will hit a few homers while locked in, but they simply don't hit.

I have the better pitcher (not even close) the better hitting team, a MUCH better bullpen.  Laying -120  Gimme KC


 
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Posted: #29
Other games I am looking at:

Texas Yankees Under 9:  The Rangers just aren't hitting.  They struggle with Lefites nd the Yankees bullpen is simply ridiculous and when Chapman gets back, they will be better than anyone if they stay healthy.  You will NOT get much late happening against the Yankees.  And they WILL trade for a bat or two later in the year.  Weather a bit of an issue here but I like under here.

CWS:  You guys know how much I love Sale and the write up on them earlier makes them a potential $$$$ play.

Oak:  How bad is Palfrey that Detroit is a -130 favorite AT Detroit!!!!  That is hilarious.  This is a MUST play on the A's simply because of the line.  


 
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Posted: #30
Finally the others I passed on  (I think):

Met's -1.5 +145  I am going to fade Cincy all year and now Bruce is out on Paternity leave.  I don't trust Colon at -150 but I trust the Mets more than Cincy.  This is a much more of streak play rather than a handicap play.  Yes Cespedis is out!!

Philly +180  Scherzer not at his best right now.  Velasquez...who is the real deal.  2 starts ago or last start?  Def worth a shot at +180

Boston -1.5  This one looks too easy  Price vs Braves.  Really? I like Wisler but he might struggle with this line up.

Mo Tom Derby Longshot Play (Hint that will be a HUGE $$$$ for me)  Miami. Kershaw did not look great in ATL, but Miami is worth a shot at +260

 
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Posted: #31
Oh sorry to keep writing but the Hawks C's Under for me:

I have watched every second of this series and here is what I determined.  Both teams are simply streakers...they put up great numbers in stretched , but more and more, they go through droughts. 

the totals have been between 203-206 and Under has hit 3-1  And also, this will be the most physical game of the series.  I look for a defensive minded Game 7 type game here and I feel even if Hawks blow out C's (don't see the other way happening) the C's might rest up and move onto Game 6.  

The loss of Bradley and Injury to Olynyk (he might play tonight but not close to 100%) No way Jerebko and Smart shoot as well as they did last game and they STILL didn't reach 203 in OT.


 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by PimpNation:

Other games I am looking at:

Texas Yankees Under 9:  The Rangers just aren't hitting.  They struggle with Lefites nd the Yankees bullpen is simply ridiculous and when Chapman gets back, they will be better than anyone if they stay healthy.  You will NOT get much late happening against the Yankees.  And they WILL trade for a bat or two later in the year.  Weather a bit of an issue here but I like under here.

CWS:  You guys know how much I love Sale and the write up on them earlier makes them a potential $$$$ play.

Oak:  How bad is Palfrey that Detroit is a -130 favorite AT Detroit!!!!  That is hilarious.  This is a MUST play on the A's simply because of the line.  


Line at Okl -128 is this ok
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Bnyce21:


RONALDO IS OUT TODAY!!!!

damnit. i had already put the play in
 
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Posted: #34
Thanks. Credit to 19 year old Vaikla who put up a solid effort in goal. I said that 7 different players had scored for Norrköping in the first 5 games. Today 3 other players scored, ergo 10 different scorers (and 15 goals) in the first 6 games. That's offensive strength. Game ended 3-1 after a penalty in the final minutes.
 
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Posted: #35
Raptors (6PM ET TNT) – Been unlucky with my $$$$ plays on here of late but we get back in the win column hardwood on Monday as the Charlotte Hornets grind out a hard fought win and push our current NBA run to winners in 8 of our last 9 as we step out again tonight in Game 5 between the Toronto Raptors and Indiana Pacers at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto.  We were on the Raptors in literally the same spot in Game 2 when Toronto came out with a 98-87 win and after a dud performance in Game 4 we see all of the same situational angles playing on the Raptors here in Game 5 that did in a Game 2 that produced an 11 point winner against a similar number.  Part of the reason is the Raptors lackluster Game 4 performance looked a lot like the egg they laid in Game 1 and with a renewed defensive intensity which is almost a certainty as this team really defends hard when they play at home, we expect the Pacers to return to scoring in the 80’s as they did in Games 2 and 3 and the Raptors to have a comfortable handle on this one throughout.  Aside from the Hawks blowing their lead in the closing seconds on Sunday, playing on teams with true revenge has worked well for us thus far in the playoffs and it becomes an even more profitable angle when a team has home revenge like the Raptors do tonight.  What’s amazing here and speaks to the fact the Raptors could really blow someone out if they are all on the same page is the fact DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have yet to really play their best basketball in this series and with just serviceable efforts from arguably their two best players the Raptors have already won their two games in this series by 11 and 16 respectively.  The Pacers should be commended for adjustments they made in Game 4, namely starting Myles Turner and being far more aggressive on the boards at both ends as a team, but the Raptors are now prepared for this and will be able to make the necessary adjustments in Game 5.  After four frustrating games for DeRozan and Lowry there is no question the game plan will be to get this duo involved early and often and if both of these guys heat up, something that is bound to happen at some point, the Pacers will have absolutely no answer for what the Raptors are able to do offensively when this is the case.  Paul George has been incredible for the Pacers and his 26.3 points per game have singlehandedly kept the Pacers in this series but if George isn’t going off and putting up a huge number this is an offensively challenged Pacers team that will struggle to score, especially on the road against a team like the Raptors who, while inconsistent in this series thus far, are a tremendous defensive team.  We see a near identical spot for the Raptors as we had for Game 2 in a game that was a comfortable double digit win for the Raptors at home and we will back déjà vu when these two teams meet again in Toronto tonight.  The Raptors are the better team here and playing at home after a loss and that alone is enough for us to take a shot with Toronto here but throw in the fact we still have yet to see Lowry and DeRozan at their best through four games in this series and it’s almost inevitable a huge outing for one or both of them in on the horizon and there’s a great chance one or both goes off tonight.  The Raptors two wins in this series have come by an average of 13.5 points per game and with the series essentially on the line tonight knowing if the Pacers were to win there would be a decisive Game 6 in Indianapolis, expect the best effort to date in this series from the Raptors as they reclaim control with another double digit win and cover north of the border tonight.  

$$$$ Raptors -7

This is the exact same scenario as Game 2.  The Raptors rolled in that game and if Lowry and DeRozan man up they should really roll here.  Ill have MLB today as well at topflightsportsinfo dot com

Lets get it today!!!!
 
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Posted: #36
Ytd 11-1 balt. O's GL every1
 
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Posted: #37
@BNyce21 followed like the degen I am and hit. Thanks brotha
 
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Posted: #38
@pimpnation On that weather note, I'm in Boston and it's cold and rainy. Im curious if weather affects price as he's previously been on teams that play indoors.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by manolo87:


damnit. i had already put the play in

Same here bro just gotta take it on the chin. Love how coach says he's 100% to play yesterday then 30 mins b4 game they say he's out.
 
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Posted: #40
Atlanta/Boston under 96 1H is my $$$$ Play for today.

The total I have should be around 92 or 93.

Past results:

4/24 94 points 1H Home team Bos
4/22 92 points 1H Home team Bos
4/19 71 points 1H home team Atl
4/16 85 points 1H Home team Atl
4/9   138 points 1H Home team Atl ( the one anomaly )

I also like the total game under 199 but not as much as the 1H as the two teams tend to score the most points in the 2H of their games. I also believe this will be the most physical game and Atlanta plays better defense at home. Also game are hitting the under at a 70% clip on unders in the 1st round so far.

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by Bnyce21:

$$$$ White Sox ML (-125). $$$$ (Sale vs Dickey)

I'm going to have to roll with the red hot Chris Sale (4-0  1.80 ERA). In 3 starts vs the Jays he's 2-1  2.35 ERA lasting at least 7 innings in all 3 with 1 CG. Sox bullpen leads the majors with a 1.41 ERA so even if he gets in trouble no need to worry. Toronto sends Dickey (1-2  6.10 ERA) to the hill who's struggled against the Sox (0-3.  7.43 ERA) in last 4 starts. Not to mention there's a few Chicago players licking their chops to face dickey. Jose Abreu is 4-9 with 3 HRs, Todd Frazier is 4-10 with 2 HRs, Melky Cabrera 6-18  with a pair of homers and Jimmy Rollins is 9-27 with 6 extra base hits.

$$$ White Sox ML -125 $$$


Loving this play sir but it is a bit "tricky" shall we say. Given how great Sale is this year, I felt he should've been at least a -130 to -135...almost seems like bait to bet Sale. Tricky Dickey is usually a bet against pitcher to me.

I'm still putting my money on Sale but just giving my two cents.
 
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Posted: #42
WAS/PHI Under 3.5 1st 
Scherzer has been inconsistent at times this season, but has owned the current Phillies lineup (they have hit .178/.201/.295 against him). Philadelphia also being one of the weakest offensive teams in baseball doesn't hurt either. Scherzer is also a fly ball pitcher, and the Phillies don't hit a lot of fly balls, or home runs, or extra base hits. On the other side, Vincent Velasquez has been money this year. He is 2-1 with 0.93 ERA with 29 strike outs in 3 starts! He has also given up just 3 hits in his last 3 games. Reason I'm just paying the 1st half is because Philadelphia has one of the worst, most inconsistent bull-pens in baseball.


HOU -140 @ SEA 
I think the Astros slump combined with Keuchel's struggles on the road have made Houston undervalued here. Bottom line is Keuchel is WAY better than Nate Karns (1-1, 5.28 ERA this year), and the line should reflect that. Seattle also struggles with lefties, hitting .214 against lefties on the year. On top of that, Keuchel is one of the MLB's top groundball pitchers, and the Mariners are #3 in hitting groundballs. I think this is a good matchup for Keuchel, and considering he is one of the MLB's best pitchers, -140 are pretty good odds. I am putting 2U on this one, so I guess that makes it my $$$$ play.


Lastly, I am playing NYY/TEX Under 9 Runs. The Yankees and Rangers bats have both been ice cold lately, and they are 29th and 28th in runs in the past 7 days respectively. AJ Griffin has also been solid this year, and has fared fairly well against the Yankees he has faced. I also think this is a good spot for Luis Severino to get back on track, as he was better on the road last year than he was at home. 9 is a pretty high total for such cold teams, so I am taking the under.


You can find all my plays posted on my twitter, @RatBehr. BOL, lets make some money. 
 
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Posted: #43

(3-0 in $$$$ Plays)

It's been a few days but I'm back.

$$$$ Tor/Ind Under 193 -110 $$$$

With the series tied 2-2 and retuning to Tor I expect the defenses to show up tonight for a physical game. Also, game 1 of this series hit 190 points which was the series high. Both teams haven't been playing overly stellar ball and with the series tied I expect the defensive efforts to increase.

$$$$ Tor/Ind Under 193 -110 $$$$

Along with that the trends scream under:

Indiana Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 6-0 in Pacers last 6 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Toronto Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 overall.
Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.
Head to Head Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Pacers are 8-23 ATS in the last 31 meetings in Toronto.
Pacers are 21-43 ATS in the last 64 meetings.

 
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Posted: #44
$$$$ ML St. Louis Cardinals -131 $$$$

Simply put....
(GOOD PITCHER) Carlos Martinez (3-0 W/L, 3-0 Team W/L, 2.70 ERA, 14.36 P/IP) and passes the the 6th inning in under 100 pitches.

(BAD PITCHER) Shelby Miller (0-1 W/L, 1-2 Team W/L, 8.59 ERA, 22.88 P/IP), couldn't past the 2nd inning in the last two games.

Additionally, Carlos has gotten great run support outscoring teams 24-6 when he's on the mound. Shelby on the other hand....

Other games I'm looking at is:

1) Anaheim Ducks to take it at home in Game 7!

2) Against the grain on the BOS/ATL game totals; a lot of people catching onto the under trend and it seems to me that sooner or later, they will play back to regular season form (both scoring/allowing 100pts per game). Approximately 80% of bets are on the under so I'm slightly inclined to say over if it drops lower than 198.

3) KC will put the hammer down on LAA for losing yesterday.

 
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Posted: #45
 Liking most of the plays posted on here so far. Still upset about that Indians game. Lol. It happens though. I was liking Giants for tonight and thought about the runline. Still may play it but probably not a $$$$ play. Good Luck Everyone.
 
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Posted: #46
On a bit of roll with my parlays using the Starting Pitcher mismatch theory.  I have also got on rolls in the wrong direction with this.

Tonight I'm going with Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. Parlaying Pale Hose and Dodgers. Got hope RA Dickey does not have the floater going. He has a way of making my life a misery when the knuckler is at full boar.


Jack Ryan
 
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Posted: #47
In the Nationals game the ump is Angel Hernandez.

Originally Posted by tuck321
This is Angel Hernandez?
.78 ERA with Scherzer 23 innings?
Yes
      

 
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Posted: #48
Final Card for the Nation:

$$$$ on Oakland -127 for me  Look, I normally don't play on losing streaks of 3 or more but I cannot get away from this line movement in this game.  Detroit is a monster offensive club (Imo) but how in the world is Oakland favored.  This is not a handicap the game play rather than a situation play and line play.  Let's see if I can get back on track with $$$$ plays.

White Sox and Sale for me  as well.  GUY IS A MONSTER!   I too hope Dickey is fluttering the ball but I really don't expect more than 2-4 out of CWS anyway.  Huge pick up in Frazier what a Rock at 3B

Boston Run Line  Had to double check my Boston weather forecast above but they are playing in the ATL.  I think Price has a monster bounce back game here.  Boston leading the league in hitting with Price against the Braves who (I think) are dead last in hitting.  ?????  Check those stats for accuracy, but I am close and you get ny point.  Almost used these guys as my $$$$$

1/2 Unit Play (I get almost 2-1 on Philly)  Philly.  This is probably a reach but like I said I do NOT want to miss out on Velasquez....NOTE TO ALL  his ERA 0.93 and getting 2-1  Im not the brightest bulb but gimme some of that...and I get to curse the Philly bullpen on Wednesday  LOL

KC:  I think we get a solid bounce back tonight from Royals.  And I WILL FADE Weaver every game I can this year.  I could be wrong (was last time out) but I think I will win more than I lose on this guy.

NBA  Boston and ATL UNDER 198 for me.  I mentioned this game earlier and I think I am right!

Close calls but PASS:  Mets RL, Baltimore, SF Run Line and Texas Under.

Parlay of the Day:  Oak Run Line, CWS Run Line, Boston Run Line Boston NBA under and KC  300 to win 9158 

LEGGGGGOOOOOO!!!!
 
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Posted: #49
Raptors -7
Toronto just got blown and will definitely come to play. Not sure I can say the same for Indiana. Raptors home cooking.

Dodgers -1.5
Can't see the Marlins winning two straight against a respectable Dodger club at home with Kershaw going. Dodgers in a route.
 
 
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Posted: #50
I have this think about St Louis...i tend to stay away, but I read a very compelling article today that leaned StL and Over.  Clearly Shelby Miller is in a complete FUNK...I have never heard of anyone scraping their pitching hand in the dirt.  How does this happen to anyone at his level?  Good form vs Bad form.  Hitters park, STL hitting and Arizona bullpen could get exposed early.  Miller will have a quick hook, so I am little cautious.  For you 1st 5 guys (I am not) this could be a great play on STL if Miller truly is f'ed up.

I may play it..hard to see Miller getting a Quality Start tonight.

Good luck to all and some great info on the board today.  I wish I could play soccer with you guys...I wish one of you die hards  would tally an overall Soccer record (For the Board)  WINJETS I like but I can't play Icelandic Hockey games at my sports book (Lol I have tried)


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