$$$$ THREAD CONCEPT - This thread is for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.
THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!
PLEASE make special note of this! If you have an area of expertise, please make some $$$$ choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "$$$$ PLAY". The difference between a PICK and a $$$$ PLAY is that a PICK is a game you like, a $$$$ PLAY is a game that you KNOW. If you are claiming your choice is a $$$$, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.
RULES FOR POSTING - We will not track your $$$$ PLAY if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your $$$$ on the spreadsheet.
Only one $$$$ per day and a MAXIMUM of 4 per week.
A week starts on Mon and ends on Sun.
- No buying points.
- No other "line-manipulations" like teasers, etc.
- No parlays
- No props
- $$$$ PLAYS need to be -150 or lower. Anything -151 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs.
- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the $$$$ doesn't go into the spreadsheet.
AND THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!
You must give an ORIGINAL explanation as to why you KNOW this $$$$ PLAY will win.And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. DO NOT COPY YOUR WRITE-UPS! People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation.
FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR $$$$ PICK WILL GET TRACKED
Thank you for helping keep this thread positive. It is for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
$$$$ THREAD CONCEPT - This thread is for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.
THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!
PLEASE make special note of this! If you have an area of expertise, please make some $$$$ choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "$$$$ PLAY". The difference between a PICK and a $$$$ PLAY is that a PICK is a game you like, a $$$$ PLAY is a game that you KNOW. If you are claiming your choice is a $$$$, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.
RULES FOR POSTING - We will not track your $$$$ PLAY if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your $$$$ on the spreadsheet.
Only one $$$$ per day and a MAXIMUM of 4 per week.
A week starts on Mon and ends on Sun.
- No buying points.
- No other "line-manipulations" like teasers, etc.
- No parlays
- No props
- $$$$ PLAYS need to be -150 or lower. Anything -151 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs.
- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the $$$$ doesn't go into the spreadsheet.
AND THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!
You must give an ORIGINAL explanation as to why you KNOW this $$$$ PLAY will win.And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. DO NOT COPY YOUR WRITE-UPS! People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation.
FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR $$$$ PICK WILL GET TRACKED
Thank you for helping keep this thread positive. It is for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.
Erase everything from your mind that I said Monday night except for the fact that Hendricks has been very good again the Brewers
in the first 5 innings he has faced them the last 3 years.
Anderson has been horrible at home and even
worse at night.
My book doesn't offer a 1st 5 yet. Once I get it, I'll post it. If it's greater than -150 (which I doubt that it will be), I'll take the Cubs at -1.5 as my $$$$ play.
$$$$ Cubs -.5 (1st 5) $$$$
Money is a good servant, but a bad master
0
Erase everything from your mind that I said Monday night except for the fact that Hendricks has been very good again the Brewers
in the first 5 innings he has faced them the last 3 years.
Anderson has been horrible at home and even
worse at night.
My book doesn't offer a 1st 5 yet. Once I get it, I'll post it. If it's greater than -150 (which I doubt that it will be), I'll take the Cubs at -1.5 as my $$$$ play.
Not going to have time tomorrow so I'll give my two cents on the hockey game now.
Game one in Saint Louis finished 2-1, I was able to watch almost the entire game, and hopefully develop a good read on this series moving forward. I was backing the under, however my thoughts on Tuesday nights game are leaning the opposite way. There were 55 shots on goal recorded in game 1, many were high quality chances. I noticed both teams did a great job clogging the middle of the ice, lots of blocked or deflected shots. There were also quite a few poor decisions made on odd man rushes up the ice that hurt what should have been quality scoring chances. This is going to be a physical series, I thought the refs let the boys play for the most part, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few more penalties are called in game 2. Definitely some missed calls. San Jose was great on the road this year, I really like there chances Tuesday, they're worth a look at + money. However, my stronger feeling is on the OVER 5. I doubt this is going to be a popular play based on the last game finishing 2-1, and the history of low scoring games between these two teams this year. I felt very fortunate to win the under Sunday night, went about 30 minutes of playing time at 2-1. Lots of great chances and quite a few lucky bounces that kept the puck out of the net. I also feel strongly that game one this deep into the playoffs is more of a feel it out period for both teams. Adjustments will be made on both sides. Jones and Elliot are solid goaltenders, I think they're both going to be tested in what I expect to be a very fast, up and down game with lots of scoring chances. The Sharks have been nothing short of lethal this entire playoffs, I'm still very impressed by what they did to a MUCH better goalie in round 1 (johnathon Quick). I like them to find the net often in game 2, and think the blues hang right with them. Prediction 4-3 Sharks--- maybe some OT in STL in game 2!
$$$$ play San Jose/St. Louis OVER 5 (-110) $$$$
Looks like majority of the $ is on the under at this time, may not be a bad idea to see which way this moves by morning and maybe get an even better price. Good luck with the plays, careful capping and tailing... I believe this thread got punished last Tuesday! I know for me it stands as my only L in the last 9 plays.
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Not going to have time tomorrow so I'll give my two cents on the hockey game now.
Game one in Saint Louis finished 2-1, I was able to watch almost the entire game, and hopefully develop a good read on this series moving forward. I was backing the under, however my thoughts on Tuesday nights game are leaning the opposite way. There were 55 shots on goal recorded in game 1, many were high quality chances. I noticed both teams did a great job clogging the middle of the ice, lots of blocked or deflected shots. There were also quite a few poor decisions made on odd man rushes up the ice that hurt what should have been quality scoring chances. This is going to be a physical series, I thought the refs let the boys play for the most part, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few more penalties are called in game 2. Definitely some missed calls. San Jose was great on the road this year, I really like there chances Tuesday, they're worth a look at + money. However, my stronger feeling is on the OVER 5. I doubt this is going to be a popular play based on the last game finishing 2-1, and the history of low scoring games between these two teams this year. I felt very fortunate to win the under Sunday night, went about 30 minutes of playing time at 2-1. Lots of great chances and quite a few lucky bounces that kept the puck out of the net. I also feel strongly that game one this deep into the playoffs is more of a feel it out period for both teams. Adjustments will be made on both sides. Jones and Elliot are solid goaltenders, I think they're both going to be tested in what I expect to be a very fast, up and down game with lots of scoring chances. The Sharks have been nothing short of lethal this entire playoffs, I'm still very impressed by what they did to a MUCH better goalie in round 1 (johnathon Quick). I like them to find the net often in game 2, and think the blues hang right with them. Prediction 4-3 Sharks--- maybe some OT in STL in game 2!
$$$$ play San Jose/St. Louis OVER 5 (-110) $$$$
Looks like majority of the $ is on the under at this time, may not be a bad idea to see which way this moves by morning and maybe get an even better price. Good luck with the plays, careful capping and tailing... I believe this thread got punished last Tuesday! I know for me it stands as my only L in the last 9 plays.
One thing I forgot to add--- total in Sharks last 10 games has hit at least 5 goals 9 times (exception was game 1). Total has hit at least 5 goals 6 of the last 7 St. Louis games. That's a pretty significant stat IMO. Let's get it!!!!
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One thing I forgot to add--- total in Sharks last 10 games has hit at least 5 goals 9 times (exception was game 1). Total has hit at least 5 goals 6 of the last 7 St. Louis games. That's a pretty significant stat IMO. Let's get it!!!!
Wrote a writeup on Hamels vs Surkamp tomorrow, I just seen Surkamp was optioned and they're bringing Hann to start tomaro. I'm still playing the Rangers for my play, and will post the write up tomaro morning. Good luck to all.
0
Wrote a writeup on Hamels vs Surkamp tomorrow, I just seen Surkamp was optioned and they're bringing Hann to start tomaro. I'm still playing the Rangers for my play, and will post the write up tomaro morning. Good luck to all.
[Quote: Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf] I challenged all lurkers to
throw in your plays with reasonings n put $$$$ sign by your plays to
make it official. Record don't mean jack. What is more important is
you go on a hot streak so that you become this weeks poster child so
that we may tail you for money. Good cappers on here get skunk weeks
too thus why we need you to shine for such week as we tail you for
bucks.
Post up and lets see what you got. I'll tail ya [/Quote]
$$$$ Cleveland -10 (-110) $$$$
Toronto comes into Cleveland facing a well rested, smooth operating team after two (yes 2!) 7 game series. Toronto won the season series 2-1, but won both at home in tight matches and were whackedin Cleveland by 22 points. They've done well this year's playoffs being able to avoid losing back-to-back games, but I see that trend ending these first two games. They were the better team heading into both of the first two series and appeared to struggle with the increased tempo of playoff basketball. The Raptors are coming off of an emotional high after defeating the Heat and moving further than any previous Raptors squad in franchise history and I am expecting a let down in game 1 of the Conference finals. Call it a winner's hang-over, or being unprepared for the powerhouse Cavs, the Raps are going to lose this one. Toronto is also missing big man Jonus Valanciunas for game one who is a key part of the Raptors' success and I expect The King et al. to use his absence to their advantage. 10 points is a significant spread, but I see the Cavs covering this easily at home, deep into the playoffs where Lebron's experience will truly shine.
There she be!
0
[Quote: Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf] I challenged all lurkers to
throw in your plays with reasonings n put $$$$ sign by your plays to
make it official. Record don't mean jack. What is more important is
you go on a hot streak so that you become this weeks poster child so
that we may tail you for money. Good cappers on here get skunk weeks
too thus why we need you to shine for such week as we tail you for
bucks.
Post up and lets see what you got. I'll tail ya [/Quote]
$$$$ Cleveland -10 (-110) $$$$
Toronto comes into Cleveland facing a well rested, smooth operating team after two (yes 2!) 7 game series. Toronto won the season series 2-1, but won both at home in tight matches and were whackedin Cleveland by 22 points. They've done well this year's playoffs being able to avoid losing back-to-back games, but I see that trend ending these first two games. They were the better team heading into both of the first two series and appeared to struggle with the increased tempo of playoff basketball. The Raptors are coming off of an emotional high after defeating the Heat and moving further than any previous Raptors squad in franchise history and I am expecting a let down in game 1 of the Conference finals. Call it a winner's hang-over, or being unprepared for the powerhouse Cavs, the Raps are going to lose this one. Toronto is also missing big man Jonus Valanciunas for game one who is a key part of the Raptors' success and I expect The King et al. to use his absence to their advantage. 10 points is a significant spread, but I see the Cavs covering this easily at home, deep into the playoffs where Lebron's experience will truly shine.
Erase everything from your mind that I said Monday night except for the fact that Hendricks has been very good again the Brewers
in the first 5 innings he has faced them the last 3 years.
Anderson has been horrible at home and even
worse at night.
My book doesn't offer a 1st 5 yet. Once I get it, I'll post it. If it's greater than -150 (which I doubt that it will be), I'll take the Cubs at -1.5 as my $$$$ play.
$$$$ Cubs -.5 (1st 5) $$$$
-130
Money is a good servant, but a bad master
0
Quote Originally Posted by lltb43:
Erase everything from your mind that I said Monday night except for the fact that Hendricks has been very good again the Brewers
in the first 5 innings he has faced them the last 3 years.
Anderson has been horrible at home and even
worse at night.
My book doesn't offer a 1st 5 yet. Once I get it, I'll post it. If it's greater than -150 (which I doubt that it will be), I'll take the Cubs at -1.5 as my $$$$ play.
Newmi seems to be the resident soccer expert. Interested to hear their take on the game in Denmark today.
Aalborg has something to play for, Aarhus does not. Aalborg playing well of late, Aarhus not. Aalborg hasn't had trouble winning at Aarhus in Superliga games in recent years. Typically you get really steep lines in the last few games of a soccer season where there's a big gap in motivation. With all this, Aalborg is still around even money. What am I missing?
0
Newmi seems to be the resident soccer expert. Interested to hear their take on the game in Denmark today.
Aalborg has something to play for, Aarhus does not. Aalborg playing well of late, Aarhus not. Aalborg hasn't had trouble winning at Aarhus in Superliga games in recent years. Typically you get really steep lines in the last few games of a soccer season where there's a big gap in motivation. With all this, Aalborg is still around even money. What am I missing?
We have an obvious pitching advantage in Cole Hamels tonight. He is coming into Oakland with an Era of 2.95 and a 4-0 record, 2 away wins. Although Oakland has won 2 straight games against a lefty, they have been struggling against them all season. Oakland has faced 8 left handed pitcher this season in which they are 2-6. Hamels last 3 starts aren't as decent but I see him having a nice outing tonight against a inconsistent Oakland team. The Rangers offense gets back on track tonight against Right handed Hann and help Hamels grab his 5th win of the season. As I was looking into this game, I noticed Texas is 3-1 in 2cd games in a series after dropping the opening game. I think it's a great spot for the Rangers to bounce back, and take care of business with thier Ace on the mound.
Let's go Rangers
Overall $$$ record
1-1
0
$$$//Texas Rangers ML -143//$$$
Pitching; Hamels[L] vs Hann [R]
We have an obvious pitching advantage in Cole Hamels tonight. He is coming into Oakland with an Era of 2.95 and a 4-0 record, 2 away wins. Although Oakland has won 2 straight games against a lefty, they have been struggling against them all season. Oakland has faced 8 left handed pitcher this season in which they are 2-6. Hamels last 3 starts aren't as decent but I see him having a nice outing tonight against a inconsistent Oakland team. The Rangers offense gets back on track tonight against Right handed Hann and help Hamels grab his 5th win of the season. As I was looking into this game, I noticed Texas is 3-1 in 2cd games in a series after dropping the opening game. I think it's a great spot for the Rangers to bounce back, and take care of business with thier Ace on the mound.
While Velasquez is off to a good start, his most recent 5
game WHIP is 1.20 which is not bad but is off his season long WHIP of 0.99.
Chen 5 game WHIP is
1.29 which is essentially the same as his season to date WHIP of 1.28. Looks like Velasquez has started to regress
while Chen can be expected to pitch to his recent 5 game form.
Line move action to date appears to show early smart money
being bet on Miami as Mia opened at -1.08 and has moved to -1.15 as of Wed AM. However, the betting amounts show that while
44% of early bettors like Miami, a
distinct majority of the early money bet is on Miami with a 68% of the money
being bet on Miami.
Miami is on 3 game winning streak while Phi has dropped 2
straight.
As of Wed AM, the game is basically a pick em game but I am
betting early since I would expect more money to come in later today on
Miami.
Taking Miami at -1.12 at Heritage which
currently as the best line available
0
Taking Miami -1.15 vs Phi
While Velasquez is off to a good start, his most recent 5
game WHIP is 1.20 which is not bad but is off his season long WHIP of 0.99.
Chen 5 game WHIP is
1.29 which is essentially the same as his season to date WHIP of 1.28. Looks like Velasquez has started to regress
while Chen can be expected to pitch to his recent 5 game form.
Line move action to date appears to show early smart money
being bet on Miami as Mia opened at -1.08 and has moved to -1.15 as of Wed AM. However, the betting amounts show that while
44% of early bettors like Miami, a
distinct majority of the early money bet is on Miami with a 68% of the money
being bet on Miami.
Miami is on 3 game winning streak while Phi has dropped 2
straight.
As of Wed AM, the game is basically a pick em game but I am
betting early since I would expect more money to come in later today on
Miami.
Taking Miami at -1.12 at Heritage which
currently as the best line available
While Velasquez is off to a good start, his most recent 5
game WHIP is 1.20 which is not bad but is off his season long WHIP of 0.99.
Chen 5 game WHIP is
1.29 which is essentially the same as his season to date WHIP of 1.28. Looks like Velasquez has started to regress
while Chen can be expected to pitch to his recent 5 game form.
Line move action to date appears to show early smart money
being bet on Miami as Mia opened at -1.08 and has moved to -1.15 as of Wed AM. However, the betting amounts show that while
44% of early bettors like Miami, a
distinct majority of the early money bet is on Miami with a 68% of the money
being bet on Miami.
Miami is on 3 game winning streak while Phi has dropped 2
straight.
As of Wed AM, the game is basically a pick em game but I am
betting early since I would expect more money to come in later today on
Miami.
Taking Miami at -1.12 at Heritage which
currently as the best line available
$$$$$$ Miami -1.12
0
Quote Originally Posted by Bluejay_Way:
Taking Miami -1.15 vs Phi
While Velasquez is off to a good start, his most recent 5
game WHIP is 1.20 which is not bad but is off his season long WHIP of 0.99.
Chen 5 game WHIP is
1.29 which is essentially the same as his season to date WHIP of 1.28. Looks like Velasquez has started to regress
while Chen can be expected to pitch to his recent 5 game form.
Line move action to date appears to show early smart money
being bet on Miami as Mia opened at -1.08 and has moved to -1.15 as of Wed AM. However, the betting amounts show that while
44% of early bettors like Miami, a
distinct majority of the early money bet is on Miami with a 68% of the money
being bet on Miami.
Miami is on 3 game winning streak while Phi has dropped 2
straight.
As of Wed AM, the game is basically a pick em game but I am
betting early since I would expect more money to come in later today on
Miami.
Taking Miami at -1.12 at Heritage which
currently as the best line available
(I recommend buying .5 pts but i'll take the above for my $$$$ )
I'll usually wait a day outside of the NFL season to post another $$$ pick, but give me the rested, healthy, sweeping Cavs to demolish the injured, tired, inconsistent Raptors in believeland. They're believing this year, and crushed the raps at home with kyrie still playing coy. The two losses were at Toronto after a flight from Florida and Carolina without some key players and with Lowry shooting 66%. And they won those game by 1 or 2 possessions...
So why lay double digits and not take a small return on the ML? Because the Cavs are here to make a statement, they took the hawks to the cleaners, a similarly inconsistent shooting team with a better presence in the offensive paint. Tristan Thompson has been a beast and I believe the addition of Mozgov from time to time with frustrate and wear out Bismack Biyombo who mostly plays on emotion and better at home.
The trend has recently been to try and take game 1 against a big favorite, as seen by OKC, but after multiple 7 game series I think Dwayne Casey knows better than to push the already battered team if the shots aren't falling early.
I advise that this bet is not for the weak hearted and emotional better as there is a strong mean reversion component for the Cav's 3pt shooting to fall back to earth. However I watched the Cavs-Hawks series closely and the majority of the shots behind the arc came from good ball movement, something I suspect they've taken from the Dubs, expecting to play them in the finals in what should be a shootout. Given the factors I think there is at least 70% chance of the cavs covering the spread. A raptors faithful might be wiser to take a parlay with the points and the over because if the raptors are to beat the white hot shooting cavs, it will be on the back of 50%+ FGs
Background
Record: 6-5
Coming off a game 3 SA -2 pick as my last $$$ play, I've begun to be very meticulous in my picks after starting a sizzling 5-1 and getting bonked to .500. I stayed away from the OKC/SA games 4-6 because something didn't seem right with OKC's big lineup, and after confirming that they excel against small lineups I took a half unit on the moneyline last night for some .
0
$$$$ Cavs -10.5 (-115) $$$$
(I recommend buying .5 pts but i'll take the above for my $$$$ )
I'll usually wait a day outside of the NFL season to post another $$$ pick, but give me the rested, healthy, sweeping Cavs to demolish the injured, tired, inconsistent Raptors in believeland. They're believing this year, and crushed the raps at home with kyrie still playing coy. The two losses were at Toronto after a flight from Florida and Carolina without some key players and with Lowry shooting 66%. And they won those game by 1 or 2 possessions...
So why lay double digits and not take a small return on the ML? Because the Cavs are here to make a statement, they took the hawks to the cleaners, a similarly inconsistent shooting team with a better presence in the offensive paint. Tristan Thompson has been a beast and I believe the addition of Mozgov from time to time with frustrate and wear out Bismack Biyombo who mostly plays on emotion and better at home.
The trend has recently been to try and take game 1 against a big favorite, as seen by OKC, but after multiple 7 game series I think Dwayne Casey knows better than to push the already battered team if the shots aren't falling early.
I advise that this bet is not for the weak hearted and emotional better as there is a strong mean reversion component for the Cav's 3pt shooting to fall back to earth. However I watched the Cavs-Hawks series closely and the majority of the shots behind the arc came from good ball movement, something I suspect they've taken from the Dubs, expecting to play them in the finals in what should be a shootout. Given the factors I think there is at least 70% chance of the cavs covering the spread. A raptors faithful might be wiser to take a parlay with the points and the over because if the raptors are to beat the white hot shooting cavs, it will be on the back of 50%+ FGs
Background
Record: 6-5
Coming off a game 3 SA -2 pick as my last $$$ play, I've begun to be very meticulous in my picks after starting a sizzling 5-1 and getting bonked to .500. I stayed away from the OKC/SA games 4-6 because something didn't seem right with OKC's big lineup, and after confirming that they excel against small lineups I took a half unit on the moneyline last night for some .
Heading to Comerica for a pitching matchup between 2 pitchers that have really struggled so far this year, Hughes vs. Pelfrey, in which the over looks very enticing but I think the best play is Detroit TT over 4.5. Detroits bats have started to come alive the last few games after that horrible 11 game stretch, combine that with a Minnesota pitching staff that has given up the second most runs in the AL and a starting pitcher(Hughes) who has given up 15 runs in 11 innings in his last 3 starts. Pelfrey has been equally as bad by giving up 12 runs in 14 innings in his last 3 starts, which lends itself to Detroit having to score some runs to make up for there own pitching defencies. Forecast for game time low 60's cloudy.
Bubba, Please give me $$$$ DETROIT TT OVER 4.5 $$$$ and Gl to everyone
0
$$$$ Detroit TT over 4.5 $$$$
Heading to Comerica for a pitching matchup between 2 pitchers that have really struggled so far this year, Hughes vs. Pelfrey, in which the over looks very enticing but I think the best play is Detroit TT over 4.5. Detroits bats have started to come alive the last few games after that horrible 11 game stretch, combine that with a Minnesota pitching staff that has given up the second most runs in the AL and a starting pitcher(Hughes) who has given up 15 runs in 11 innings in his last 3 starts. Pelfrey has been equally as bad by giving up 12 runs in 14 innings in his last 3 starts, which lends itself to Detroit having to score some runs to make up for there own pitching defencies. Forecast for game time low 60's cloudy.
Bubba, Please give me $$$$ DETROIT TT OVER 4.5 $$$$ and Gl to everyone
Still cant believe that OVER/UNDER total In Penguins game pushed last night. I bought the Under 5, then took a parlay with the Under 5.5 once the juice dropped down due to everyone nailing the over (smarter play). In the end, Dodgers cost me a nice 5 leg parlay. Damn Angels for finally playing decent ball when I least expected it. I am a homer for both these teams and they have been driving me crazy this year. Onto the $$$$ play.
$$$$$$$$ SJ/STL OVER 5 (-110) $$$$$$$$$
Jumping on the same side as @Matt today for the following reasons:
@Matt is a true hockey capper that knows he stuff. Never want to be on the opposite side of his NHL plays
San Jose enters tonights game with the best power play in the playoffs coming in at over 30% and the Blues are one of the most penalized teams in the NHL.
Blues: OVER is 4-0-3 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game, OVER is 14-4-8 L26 games playing on 1 days rest, OVER is 6-2-6 L14 overall, OVER is 5-2-4 L11 home games
Sharks: OVER is 4-0-3 L7 playing on 1 days rest, OVER is 3-0-3 L6 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less their previous game, OVER is 5-1-4 L10 overall, and OVER is 3-1-2 L6 vs. a team with a winning record
Sharks vs Blues: OVER is 8-3-1 their last 12 meetings and 5-2 the last 7 meetings in St. Louis.
$$$$$$$$ SJ/STL OVER 5 (-110) $$$$$$$$$
BOL today everyone. We going up! On a Tuesday!
0
Still cant believe that OVER/UNDER total In Penguins game pushed last night. I bought the Under 5, then took a parlay with the Under 5.5 once the juice dropped down due to everyone nailing the over (smarter play). In the end, Dodgers cost me a nice 5 leg parlay. Damn Angels for finally playing decent ball when I least expected it. I am a homer for both these teams and they have been driving me crazy this year. Onto the $$$$ play.
$$$$$$$$ SJ/STL OVER 5 (-110) $$$$$$$$$
Jumping on the same side as @Matt today for the following reasons:
@Matt is a true hockey capper that knows he stuff. Never want to be on the opposite side of his NHL plays
San Jose enters tonights game with the best power play in the playoffs coming in at over 30% and the Blues are one of the most penalized teams in the NHL.
Blues: OVER is 4-0-3 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game, OVER is 14-4-8 L26 games playing on 1 days rest, OVER is 6-2-6 L14 overall, OVER is 5-2-4 L11 home games
Sharks: OVER is 4-0-3 L7 playing on 1 days rest, OVER is 3-0-3 L6 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less their previous game, OVER is 5-1-4 L10 overall, and OVER is 3-1-2 L6 vs. a team with a winning record
Sharks vs Blues: OVER is 8-3-1 their last 12 meetings and 5-2 the last 7 meetings in St. Louis.
LAA has turned their slide into a quick 4 game win streak, but throwing Jered Weaver (6.10 ERA, 5.39 xFIP, 5.05 SIERA, 26.5% GB rate, the lowest of any SP in baseball) out there against a rolling Kershaw makes for the easiest pick of today's slate. I predict a 6-1 snoozer.
$$$$ Dodgers -1.5 -130 $$$$
I'm also going with Red Sox TT over 4 against Yordano Ventura. No need for a detailed write-up.. just read here:
LAA has turned their slide into a quick 4 game win streak, but throwing Jered Weaver (6.10 ERA, 5.39 xFIP, 5.05 SIERA, 26.5% GB rate, the lowest of any SP in baseball) out there against a rolling Kershaw makes for the easiest pick of today's slate. I predict a 6-1 snoozer.
$$$$ Dodgers -1.5 -130 $$$$
I'm also going with Red Sox TT over 4 against Yordano Ventura. No need for a detailed write-up.. just read here:
OK, I could wait and write this up later with more info on possible suspensions but I think the numbers justify this now. C Archer, although not having a great season, has a nice history against the Blue Jay roster- .163 [34 for 209]. Conversely, Stroman not so much-304 [24 for 79]. Bautista, Donaldson, & Pillar contribute about a .200 avg if they play. Projecting under 8 runs and more likely +/- 6 makes this a game to be decided on pitching, with a TB edge. Hitting numbers and records are similar. At this minute I see a value play on Tampa and Archer's history with lines moving if there are suspensions, and a bounce back from last night. 7 K's by the Jays, 2 long balls by the Rays, speed on the bases, and the arrow points to Archer and revenge from a month ago, 4-2 $$$$ Tampa Bay Rays +135 ML $$$$
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OK, I could wait and write this up later with more info on possible suspensions but I think the numbers justify this now. C Archer, although not having a great season, has a nice history against the Blue Jay roster- .163 [34 for 209]. Conversely, Stroman not so much-304 [24 for 79]. Bautista, Donaldson, & Pillar contribute about a .200 avg if they play. Projecting under 8 runs and more likely +/- 6 makes this a game to be decided on pitching, with a TB edge. Hitting numbers and records are similar. At this minute I see a value play on Tampa and Archer's history with lines moving if there are suspensions, and a bounce back from last night. 7 K's by the Jays, 2 long balls by the Rays, speed on the bases, and the arrow points to Archer and revenge from a month ago, 4-2 $$$$ Tampa Bay Rays +135 ML $$$$
Cubs are one of the hottest offenses in the league right now. They're leading the league now in OBP and are top 5 in wRC+, SLUG, and wOBA. Kyle Hendricks has been performing better than last year with an ERA of 2.48, FIP of 2.48, and xFIP of 2.95. Throw that in comparison to Chase Anderson of the Brewers, who has been under-performing, 6.11 ERA, 5.98 FIP, and xFIP of 4.68. Although his BABIP is a little high, his numbers last year weren't that great either. The Brewers bats aren't terrible but the Cubs have much more firepower.
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Cubs -1.5 (-115)
Cubs are one of the hottest offenses in the league right now. They're leading the league now in OBP and are top 5 in wRC+, SLUG, and wOBA. Kyle Hendricks has been performing better than last year with an ERA of 2.48, FIP of 2.48, and xFIP of 2.95. Throw that in comparison to Chase Anderson of the Brewers, who has been under-performing, 6.11 ERA, 5.98 FIP, and xFIP of 4.68. Although his BABIP is a little high, his numbers last year weren't that great either. The Brewers bats aren't terrible but the Cubs have much more firepower.
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