@Grandmastertim....I don't believe Holmey ever tracked plays during baseball. I also think increasing to -150 for baseball is the right call. Here is why: The plays in March were 73% chalk if you are looking at it from a favorite standpoint. I don't see that # increasing by much going to -150. The point of this thread is to make money but you have to be selective. This thread will eventually hover around 50% as there will be players with losing records and players who do hit and runs. (i.e single write up and lose and never comeback. They are beginning to accumulate; accounts for 35 losses already.) However, that is the nature of the beast. So yes, if you blindly tail all the posts you will be losing juice and at -150 it will be a lot of juice. But if you are an everyday reader, follower, poster you will see and have seen solid cappers emerge who have a proven track record and quality write-ups. If you read their write ups and are selective I would be willing to bet you will make money especially with proper money management skills.
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@Grandmastertim....I don't believe Holmey ever tracked plays during baseball. I also think increasing to -150 for baseball is the right call. Here is why: The plays in March were 73% chalk if you are looking at it from a favorite standpoint. I don't see that # increasing by much going to -150. The point of this thread is to make money but you have to be selective. This thread will eventually hover around 50% as there will be players with losing records and players who do hit and runs. (i.e single write up and lose and never comeback. They are beginning to accumulate; accounts for 35 losses already.) However, that is the nature of the beast. So yes, if you blindly tail all the posts you will be losing juice and at -150 it will be a lot of juice. But if you are an everyday reader, follower, poster you will see and have seen solid cappers emerge who have a proven track record and quality write-ups. If you read their write ups and are selective I would be willing to bet you will make money especially with proper money management skills.
@TopFlightSports...Diamondbacks jumped out at me this morning while looking at today's card and your write up has confirmed my wager. Thanks for the nudge and a great write-up!
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@TopFlightSports...Diamondbacks jumped out at me this morning while looking at today's card and your write up has confirmed my wager. Thanks for the nudge and a great write-up!
hey guys stupid question but i noticed on baseball bets it has a drop down box on my ticket that says "Action (any pitcher)" what exactly does that mean?
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hey guys stupid question but i noticed on baseball bets it has a drop down box on my ticket that says "Action (any pitcher)" what exactly does that mean?
Doesn't anyone see any issues with opening this up to -150 plays? The goal of the thread is to make money and to me it'll turn into a record contest. It's just that it's gonna be all chalk with the nature of baseball betting. I believe Holmey said before that this process only worked in college basketball in his experience.
I don't mean to be a downer bc this thread has been awesome but I really question the effectiveness when vast majority of plays will be chalk and there's no way bubba will or should track someone's +/- units with all the juice. I hope everyone continues to make money with this thread, I really do. I just have serious reservations about tailing baseball under this format.
I agree with you grandmaster. The -150 will discourage value seeking on the + odds side and will result in a lot of stat padding with chalk at the -150 or less range.
In my opinion, it would be better to keep the system the same. People like topflight and bubba earned their percentages with solid capping, so why put a system in effect where EVERYONE will hit 58% of their plays or more? After all the break even on -150 chalk is 58%, so breaking even will now be 6-4 as opposed to 5-5. It's a significant difference.
The end result will be a dilution at the top of the standings where topflights' and Bubbas' past records will make the top cappers harder to figure out.
Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
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Quote Originally Posted by grandmastertim:
Doesn't anyone see any issues with opening this up to -150 plays? The goal of the thread is to make money and to me it'll turn into a record contest. It's just that it's gonna be all chalk with the nature of baseball betting. I believe Holmey said before that this process only worked in college basketball in his experience.
I don't mean to be a downer bc this thread has been awesome but I really question the effectiveness when vast majority of plays will be chalk and there's no way bubba will or should track someone's +/- units with all the juice. I hope everyone continues to make money with this thread, I really do. I just have serious reservations about tailing baseball under this format.
I agree with you grandmaster. The -150 will discourage value seeking on the + odds side and will result in a lot of stat padding with chalk at the -150 or less range.
In my opinion, it would be better to keep the system the same. People like topflight and bubba earned their percentages with solid capping, so why put a system in effect where EVERYONE will hit 58% of their plays or more? After all the break even on -150 chalk is 58%, so breaking even will now be 6-4 as opposed to 5-5. It's a significant difference.
The end result will be a dilution at the top of the standings where topflights' and Bubbas' past records will make the top cappers harder to figure out.
I like your Marlins pick Bubba, definitely tailing you on that. I'm also leaning Phillies, and Cavaliers in the NBA, (if anyone has any insight on those it would be greatly appreciated) but for today's $$$ play, I have to stick with the NBA and go with the Washington Wizards -13.5 (don't worry, there's another 6 months of baseball to bet on) If memory serves Cleveland is playing 5 in7 and Indiana is playing on 2 days rest their best. Fairly big spot.
The Brooklyn Nets are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games, they have already shut down their top point-getters in Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young for the rest of the season, and are already thinking about their impending lottery pick. They are also 0-5 in their last 5 games, losing by an average of 19.6 points since Lopez and Young have been out. The Washington Wizards are a playoff hopeful team trying to reach their strides at the end of the season for a chance at the dance, and are playing at home where they are a strong 7-3 in their last 10 games. When they met earlier in the year, the Wizards cruised to a 16 point win, and that was with Lopez and Young playing for the Nets. I know the spread is high, but the Wizards should be able to have an easy time in getting the win here tonight by 20+.
I'm also thinking about putting a small play on Wizards 1st half, but my $$$ play is Washington Wizards -13.5
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Quote Originally Posted by ATSteve:
I like your Marlins pick Bubba, definitely tailing you on that. I'm also leaning Phillies, and Cavaliers in the NBA, (if anyone has any insight on those it would be greatly appreciated) but for today's $$$ play, I have to stick with the NBA and go with the Washington Wizards -13.5 (don't worry, there's another 6 months of baseball to bet on) If memory serves Cleveland is playing 5 in7 and Indiana is playing on 2 days rest their best. Fairly big spot.
The Brooklyn Nets are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games, they have already shut down their top point-getters in Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young for the rest of the season, and are already thinking about their impending lottery pick. They are also 0-5 in their last 5 games, losing by an average of 19.6 points since Lopez and Young have been out. The Washington Wizards are a playoff hopeful team trying to reach their strides at the end of the season for a chance at the dance, and are playing at home where they are a strong 7-3 in their last 10 games. When they met earlier in the year, the Wizards cruised to a 16 point win, and that was with Lopez and Young playing for the Nets. I know the spread is high, but the Wizards should be able to have an easy time in getting the win here tonight by 20+.
I'm also thinking about putting a small play on Wizards 1st half, but my $$$ play is Washington Wizards -13.5
@sharp - "Action" means you have action on the game regardless of starting pitchers.
"listed pitchers" means the starter listed has to throw at least one pitch
It's rare but it happens....lets say an hour before the game Corbin were to tweak something in his warmup and get scratched from the start. The majority of our basis of the play relies on him so we wouldn't want the bet at that point.
Listing the pitchers would cancel it or make it a push while action you would get the bet on whoever ends up taking his spot.
Personal rule of thumb - always list your pitchers!
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@sharp - "Action" means you have action on the game regardless of starting pitchers.
"listed pitchers" means the starter listed has to throw at least one pitch
It's rare but it happens....lets say an hour before the game Corbin were to tweak something in his warmup and get scratched from the start. The majority of our basis of the play relies on him so we wouldn't want the bet at that point.
Listing the pitchers would cancel it or make it a push while action you would get the bet on whoever ends up taking his spot.
Personal rule of thumb - always list your pitchers!
Tough way to end the game yesterday with the Blue Jays
$$$$ Red Sox Indians over 7.5
Sox put up 6 on Cleveland yesterday with their ace. Sox should be able to put up atleast 4 without problem and Clay Buccholz is hit or miss. I think he gives up atleast four runs as well today.
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Tough way to end the game yesterday with the Blue Jays
$$$$ Red Sox Indians over 7.5
Sox put up 6 on Cleveland yesterday with their ace. Sox should be able to put up atleast 4 without problem and Clay Buccholz is hit or miss. I think he gives up atleast four runs as well today.
@Grandmastertim....I don't believe Holmey ever tracked plays during baseball. I also think increasing to -150 for baseball is the right call. Here is why: The plays in March were 73% chalk if you are looking at it from a favorite standpoint. I don't see that # increasing by much going to -150. The point of this thread is to make money but you have to be selective. This thread will eventually hover around 50% as there will be players with losing records and players who do hit and runs. (i.e single write up and lose and never comeback. They are beginning to accumulate; accounts for 35 losses already.) However, that is the nature of the beast. So yes, if you blindly tail all the posts you will be losing juice and at -150 it will be a lot of juice. But if you are an everyday reader, follower, poster you will see and have seen solid cappers emerge who have a proven track record and quality write-ups. If you read their write ups and are selective I would be willing to bet you will make money especially with proper money management skills.
Well said
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Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:
@Grandmastertim....I don't believe Holmey ever tracked plays during baseball. I also think increasing to -150 for baseball is the right call. Here is why: The plays in March were 73% chalk if you are looking at it from a favorite standpoint. I don't see that # increasing by much going to -150. The point of this thread is to make money but you have to be selective. This thread will eventually hover around 50% as there will be players with losing records and players who do hit and runs. (i.e single write up and lose and never comeback. They are beginning to accumulate; accounts for 35 losses already.) However, that is the nature of the beast. So yes, if you blindly tail all the posts you will be losing juice and at -150 it will be a lot of juice. But if you are an everyday reader, follower, poster you will see and have seen solid cappers emerge who have a proven track record and quality write-ups. If you read their write ups and are selective I would be willing to bet you will make money especially with proper money management skills.
I have some doubts about this play. This is a list of Indiana at home on 2 days rest First to last Milwaukee 123-86 Chicago 104-92 Miami 96-83 GS 123-131 I covered getting 8.5 they list it as a loss Clippers 89-91 getting 1 loss NO 92-84 no cover Bottom line I think they figure to win and cover here.
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Quote Originally Posted by sharpics:
$$$$ Cardinals-Pirates U7.5 -115 $$$$$$$$
st.L M. Leake 2.25 ERA w/.95 WHIP this spring
pirates J. Hicasio 0.00ERA w/.93 WHIP this spring
I have some doubts about this play. This is a list of Indiana at home on 2 days rest First to last Milwaukee 123-86 Chicago 104-92 Miami 96-83 GS 123-131 I covered getting 8.5 they list it as a loss Clippers 89-91 getting 1 loss NO 92-84 no cover Bottom line I think they figure to win and cover here.
By the way Washington is not a playoff team. They are behind Detroit and Indiana by 4 games each and there are 6 other teams up much more. This is essentially VERY unlikely
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By the way Washington is not a playoff team. They are behind Detroit and Indiana by 4 games each and there are 6 other teams up much more. This is essentially VERY unlikely
I love to play them other games but man, these line movements man. Sux
Only game that is straight is the lad games so this is what I shall play today.
padres have not score a run on them dodgers in 2 games now. If they are having problems, do let the problem continues. They might be a fading material this year.
What is bad about the dodgers? Well they are so confident that they will win this game that they will start an oversea guy whom they just signed. A japanese league guy but should it be a concern? Perhaps but with an ERA of 2.39, that's good enough but then again, that's era pitching to them japanese players, not usa ballers.
But here is another thing. The usa ballers are not going to take any chump change of a guy either. They want guys with a resume and this new pitcher here has won awards in the japanese market like for comparison, the cy young equivalent award. He won them in 2010 and just last year in 2015 so he's fresh enough.
So who is the padres starting? Some guy who has a record of 6-16 with 1-5 against them dodgers
Until them padres shows any sign of an offense, I will continue to fade them till they do. Padres still struggles against the NL west
dodgers are : 5-0 in their last five vs. NL West
I shall take them dodgers again for the sweep and for $$$$
X_____________________________
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I love to play them other games but man, these line movements man. Sux
Only game that is straight is the lad games so this is what I shall play today.
padres have not score a run on them dodgers in 2 games now. If they are having problems, do let the problem continues. They might be a fading material this year.
What is bad about the dodgers? Well they are so confident that they will win this game that they will start an oversea guy whom they just signed. A japanese league guy but should it be a concern? Perhaps but with an ERA of 2.39, that's good enough but then again, that's era pitching to them japanese players, not usa ballers.
But here is another thing. The usa ballers are not going to take any chump change of a guy either. They want guys with a resume and this new pitcher here has won awards in the japanese market like for comparison, the cy young equivalent award. He won them in 2010 and just last year in 2015 so he's fresh enough.
So who is the padres starting? Some guy who has a record of 6-16 with 1-5 against them dodgers
Until them padres shows any sign of an offense, I will continue to fade them till they do. Padres still struggles against the NL west
dodgers are : 5-0 in their last five vs. NL West
I shall take them dodgers again for the sweep and for $$$$
Agree with that. Last remarks. If you want to lay Big chalk it should be with Boston. Really terrible spot for NO. Am I doing it? No, all you have to have is open eyes big chalk is losing massively. Just closing your eyes and fading it would be winning strategy. Earlier in the season it was fine now you see Phoenix slipping in by 1 point at Atlanta and Many other examples
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Agree with that. Last remarks. If you want to lay Big chalk it should be with Boston. Really terrible spot for NO. Am I doing it? No, all you have to have is open eyes big chalk is losing massively. Just closing your eyes and fading it would be winning strategy. Earlier in the season it was fine now you see Phoenix slipping in by 1 point at Atlanta and Many other examples
I am going to talk briefly about 1 other game. Clippers at Lakers. Yesterday the Lakers were slaughtered. Going in they had covered 2 in a row. No Laker made any effort. Today it is classed as their court. They are 4-2 ATS at home after a 20 or greater loss and they are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games at home vs the Clippers. This will be Kobe;s last game vs them and he will Show and the team will play with him. Clippers by the way tend to do badly after 20 point wins. I will bet the Lakers straight and tease them. GL
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I am going to talk briefly about 1 other game. Clippers at Lakers. Yesterday the Lakers were slaughtered. Going in they had covered 2 in a row. No Laker made any effort. Today it is classed as their court. They are 4-2 ATS at home after a 20 or greater loss and they are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games at home vs the Clippers. This will be Kobe;s last game vs them and he will Show and the team will play with him. Clippers by the way tend to do badly after 20 point wins. I will bet the Lakers straight and tease them. GL
By the way Washington is not a playoff team. They are behind Detroit and Indiana by 4 games each and there are 6 other teams up much more. This is essentially VERY unlikely
If your read the original post carefully it says "playoff hopeful" because your right they are not a playoff team, and I didn't say they were. I completely agree that it is very unlikely, but they will still be playing with the chance of making it, unlike the Nets who have completely given up.
"The fat lady hasn't started singing yet," Bradley Beal said after Sunday's 114-109 loss to the Clippers. "Some crazy things have happened at the end of the season, so anything can happen. It's just all a matter of time."
We shall see how they respond tonight
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Quote Originally Posted by tuck321:
By the way Washington is not a playoff team. They are behind Detroit and Indiana by 4 games each and there are 6 other teams up much more. This is essentially VERY unlikely
If your read the original post carefully it says "playoff hopeful" because your right they are not a playoff team, and I didn't say they were. I completely agree that it is very unlikely, but they will still be playing with the chance of making it, unlike the Nets who have completely given up.
"The fat lady hasn't started singing yet," Bradley Beal said after Sunday's 114-109 loss to the Clippers. "Some crazy things have happened at the end of the season, so anything can happen. It's just all a matter of time."
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