Bubba's $$$$ Thread WEDNESDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 04.06.16

Damn San Francisco bullpen oh well .

Love reading all of the input on MLB! 

I usually don't start betting consistently until mid season since there are obviously too many unknowns. I'll keep an eye out on whoever the hot hands are and will surely put in my two cents (when a $$$$ is warranted).

I would suggest everyone not to simply "pick" in this forum and only put their A+ / POD in order to keep the integrity and production of this thread! Make it your $$$$ bet if it's a game you're putting 3-5 units + on. not

Good luck everyone and hopefully I'll see a good $$$$ bet today.

Mia is down right now but you got the right play.  You play 9 innings plus extras if needed to

23-3 in Fernandez’s last 26 home starts

Now on to my Pick of the Day:

$$$$ Orlando Magic -3 $$$$

I've said this before about Orlando...they're all healthy finally! It's a little too late for them to make a run though. Ultimately, the team they "should've" had would've more more than likely been in contention. The biggest returns on the squad is Oladipo along with the Nucevic after a 15 absence. After their return and being acclimated back into the lineup, in the last 5 games they've been scoring an average of 118.6 points!

Detroit has also been playing quite well with Reggie Jackson doing his best Russell Westbrook routine. They've won the last 7 out of 10 games, beat Orlando 5 straight H2H and they're 8-1 ATS in the last 9 games.

So why am I leaning toward Orlando? The line is at -3 in favor of Orlando! The line should've been in favor of Detroit given the stats recently but it's not.

Usually I like to back this up with more general stats but I don't have the time today.

GL All! Fade or follow.

Boys-

Wow, John Wall wasn't even listed on the injury report and is now questionable for tonight's game. The line already dropped to -12.5 and if he gets ruled out its going to drop more. Some luck for my $$$ play... 

Career $$$$ plays: 1-1

                          $$$$  Phillies (+108)  $$$$

I follow all Philadelphia teams very closely since its where I reside. Today Nola steps on the mound vs. the Reds, who in my opinion are having a ton of trouble swinging the bat right now. Yes, they beat the Phils a few days back but that was more of the bullpen choking rather than the skill of the Reds. Don't get me wrong, the Phils are going to be hard to watch this year, but Nola is definitely a bright spot and I think he starts his season off with a very strong outing. I see a low scoring game where the Phils win by 1-2 runs. Fade or Follow but either way, good luck!

 

Looks like the Snakes are done for. Never expected Chatwood to pitch that well. I thought AZ would run up the score...

Charlotte Hornets !
$$$$$$

Time to dig out of the way too high of priced dbacks loss.

Twins +107

I'm liking red wings/flyers over 5 and possibly red wings ml at home should be a battle.

Too close to tipoff to count as a $$ play, but I like the Boston Celtics game over 208.  Celtics at home or road are a high scoring team and Pelicans do not play defense.  Even with the whole team injured, Pelicans manage to score in the mid 90s to low 100s still, and Celtics pace leads to more possessions than normal for opposing teams. 

Also took Detroit Pistons +3.5.  Not much to post it now since game already tipped off.

Have my eye on a few other NBA bets and MLB.  Leaning Houston Rockets but looking at a few more things.  Same with Portland and LA Clippers games

Unexpected return.  I just ran off the Dodgers.  Reasoning is simple and would have saved me money in the morning if I had noticed it.  Dodgers and SF play tomorrow.  Just a warning.  GL

I also like Charlotte Hornets -5 in NBA

Hornets rarely lose 3 in a row.  Batum is not playing today, but both Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lin historically play well at MSG and against the Knicks.

Knicks have Carmelo but Porzingas and Calderon are sitting.  Knicks have some decent young backups playing well, but I think Charlotte gets it done today.  They have a vested interested in *not* dropping anymore in the playoff standings.

Dallas-105 ML

I voiced similar concerns and is why I think baseball bets should count according to line.  So if you bet a -150 and lose that should be 1.5 losses instead of 1.  Vice versa, betting a +150 winner would mean 1.5 wins!  This way, folks would *not* be tempted to go pure chalk to try to gain a record advantage.

That would mean more work/effort put in by Bubbaski though to keep track of standings, and I'm sure he is being strained by keeping this daily thread going as it is.  Either way, I'm okay with what he decides. 

$$$$ Dallas Mavericks full game under 206.5 $$$$

Looked at this game pretty close.  Big game for both teams in fighting for a playoff spot.  Dallas has a tough remaining schedule so they likely know they really need to get this one if they have any hope.  Houston scedule rest of way is fairly easy in comparison.

 Dallas has undergone a mini restructuring with the loss of Parsons and DWill.  They used to be a high scoring team but not good on defense.  Now that they have lost two of their better scoring options, they have figured out they need to give their energy to making life miserable for the other team's offense.  Plus Nowitzki has not been shooting so well either.  They have averaged around 93ppg on this four game run and know they will need to hold Rockets < 100ppg in order to have a shot as their offense just is not that great.  JJ Barea has been their main play maker.

On the other side, Rockets are indeed a high scoring team.  Their past few road games though have seen them stuck right around the 100-105 ppg mark.  Another note, Rockets top scorer James Harden does not shoot well at Dallas in recent history.  So one more reason why I think Houston may do well just to get close to 100ppg today against the renewed defensive efforts of Dallas.

For the record, I not only bet the under 206.5, but I also bet both team total unders, Dallas under 102.5 and Houston under 104.5.  Like I said, Dallas offense has been averaging 93ppg and they are playing at a slow grind it out pace, good old playoff basketball.

To hedge all of the under bets, I put a bet on Rockets -2.  My thinking behind this is if for whatever reason the game total goes over, that *seemingly* should favor the Rockets.  A low scoring game favors Dallas, although I can still see Rockets squeezing out a tight low scoring game as well.

I can also see folks just focusing on the Houston team total under if they feel strongly that Dallas will be the motivated team.

$$$$ Dallas Mavericks under 206.5 $$$$

Freaking A.  I sure hope my $$$ play Dallas under follows the script better than this Boston over.  I would have thought Boston would be more motivated to score given the tight playoff seeding in the east conference and a chance to still be the 3 seed.  New Orleans is so bad, they should score 120+.  Not meant to be it seems.

I just bet Portland Trailblazers -6 versus OKC and also took the 1st half -3 in a big way.  OKC sitting their top 3 guys tonight due to the back2back.  Portland meanwhile has been sizzling at home and still has a lot to play for in playoff seeding.  OKC locked into #3 seed


I also bet 1st Dallas under 104

$$$$ Portland Trailblazers -6 $$$$

Hey Bubba, can you change my $$$$ play to be Portland -6?

I am all in on Portland tonight.  OKC is sitting their top 3 PLUS Andre Roberson for this game.  I do not see how their bench will keep up with Portland offense for 48 minutes.  Portland averaging 114ppg at home lately and needs all the wins they can get to stick to a 5 or 6 seed come playoff time.  They do not want to face Golden St or San Antonio 1st round.

I noticed my book took off the team totals for this game, but I still snagged Portland -6 and bet it big.

$$$$ Portland Trailblazers -6 $$$$

Just FYI, Clippers announced that Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and Deandre Jordan will be playing tonight against LA Lakers.  They may be on a minutes cap though depending on how the game is going.

Clippers are sitting two key reserves though in Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers.

I am betting the 1st half under 103 and full game under 204.5.  Lakers offense is just not that good home or away.  Clippers defense with their starting 5 on the floor has been stellar lately and without Crawford their offense might not be as effective.

Also bet Clippers team total under 107.5 and Lakers team total under 96.5

Clippers have no motivation to run up the score and also without Crawford.  Lakers just pretty much suck and are incapable of scoring a lot unless they shoot well from 3pt land which is usually not the case.

Just my thoughts, sorry for all the consecutive posts.

Convinced myself to roll with Gray and the A's tonight. I just feel the A's stop an 0/3 start to the season. Gray dominates on ESPN, and the bats back put on a show to back em up.