TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING GAME 1 VS. NY ISLANDERS -155
This would be a $$$$ play for me tonight, but the juice falls 5 cents out of the guidelines. I think this is a great spot for my Bolts tonight, so I am willing to go outside of my comfort zone when it comes to laying juice. Before anyone asks, no I will never consider playing the PL in an NHL playoff game. That is gambling suicide in my opinion. Way too many 1-goal games.
The playoffs many times for teams are a learning process. There is failure in the postseason, a team learns from that experience and is better equipped to handle it the following year. Last season in the first round, Tampa Bay lost game 1 at home in the first round against Detroit, and it made the entire series an uphill ride for them. The only time they led in games against the Wings was after they had won Game 7.
In the second round of last year's playoffs, the Lightning saw what could happen on the positive side when you win game 1 on the road. They went to Montreal, won the opener, and that led to them ultimately grabbing a 3-0 series lead.
Inexperience against Chicago was in my opinion their ultimate undoing in the Stanley Cup finals last season. Each round of the playoffs gets harder and harder. Even though the series only went 6 games, anyone who watched every game of that series will tell you the Lightning played just as well as the Hawks. There were just a couple of games where Chicago's experience on that stage won out in the 3rd period and turned 2 potential Tampa Bay wins into Chicago wins.
Tampa learned from their experience against Detroit last season and handled them in the first two games at home in this year's playoffs. Personally, I thought overall Florida was the better team in their series against the Islanders. However, the Panthers had not been to the playoffs in about 10 years, and I thought that inexperience showed against New York.
Now we have this particular Islanders team in unchartered waters, having not been to the second round of the playoffs since 1993. In addition, they are coming off a series where there were 3 OT games, including 2OT in the last two. They have had only 2 days off to rest while Tampa has had 5 days off. The Lightning needed it badly as well with all the injuries. Stralman and Stamkos are not back yet, but their other guys like Tyler Johnson and Ryan Callahan have had a chance to heal up.
In addition, Johnathan Drouin was outstanding against Detroit even though he didn't score a goal, and that was great to see if you are a Bolts fan. Especially with Stamkos still being out. Ben Bishop was once again outstanding against Detroit, and I am sure he will be in this series as well. On the flip side, Thomas Greiss was awesome against Florida. We will see if he can do it once again in the second round.
Even if I do call the goaltending even (which is a stretch) given Greiss' play in the first round, two major advantages here for Tampa Bay. The first is the experience factor I talked about earlier. The Bolts know how important it is to win the first game of a series at home. New York got a team that actually had less playoff experience than them in the first round, but not this time. There could definitely be a little bit of a euphoric hangover from having won a playoff series for the first time in 23 years.
Secondly, for New York it was a one-man wrecking crew when it came to scoring. John Tavares is one of the NHL's best, and he had 5 goals in the opening round. Frans Nielsen had 3 goals, but then no other Islander had more than one. Jack Capuano has a decision to make tonight. Nielsen and Tavares were paired up on the same line part of the time against the Panthers, and he also split them up. It will be interesting to see what he does tonight.
The main guy is Tavares, and playing at home, Tampa has the last line change and Coop can put anyone he wants out there to defend him. That is huge when you are playing a team who relies on one line/person to do almost all of your scoring. The same will hold true when the series shifts to Brooklyn, and the Isles can put whoever they want out there against the Johnson/Kucherov/Killorn line.
Lastly, there is only one truly elite defenseman in this series, and he plays for Tampa Bay. Victor Hedman will see 30 minutes of ice time tonight, and when John Tavares is on the ice, Hedman will be on the ice. Give me the Lightning to take the opener of the series tonight. Good luck to everyone.
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