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Bubba's $$$$ Thread ~ WEDNESDAY ~ Post Your BEST Play (With Write-up) ~ 05/18/16

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Posted: #26
Giants/Padres under 6.5 $$$$ (-110)

$$$$ history 3-1-1

So yesterday was a push with Red Sox tt over 4. A push is kinda like wearing a rain coat in the shower, but its better than a loss.

One of my pick last week was an under that hit, and as I stated last time, I usually don't take the unders, but I really like this one today. Padres pitcher (Pomeranz) has an ERA of 1.80, pretty good I'd say and Giants pitcher (Cueto) has an ERA of 2.97, again, pretty darn good.  I don't see a whole lot of hits here tonight, or runs for that matter. Cueto has a 3.34 against the Padres and I only expect that to get better.  Although Pomeranz didn't have a great game last time he palyed against the Giants, I just can't see him screwing up twice in a row here.

Additionally, Giants have the second highest rating of leaving runners on base, combine that with the excellent (supposed to be anyway) pitching we should see tonight and you have yourself a pretty good under. 

Plus, most over/unders usually are around 7.5, and this is 6.5, its low for a reason and the under is taking considerable action where 75% of the money is backing the under, and you should too.

I'm rolling with the under tonight, and I'll see you at the cashier after the game.
 
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Posted: #27
@Pimp - Tolleson really cheesed me off last night as well.  Turned a +8 unit day to just a pedestrian +1.5 unit day.  Another thing that is pissing me off is how bad my luck has been in MLB thus far this season.  With Texas losing in bottom of 9th, that is now the 8th bet I've had that was tied or winning in last two innings that ended up losing!  Contrast that with 0 wins when the team I back is tied or losing in last two innings.  I know this will balance out over the course of the full season, but right now I am

@topflight - with ya on the SD under 6.5.  It will take some weirdness for this game to go over IMO. 

@board I also think Yankees could be a good play.  Eovaldi has really emerged as a quality pitcher.  I do not think it is far fetched at all to see Eovaldi giving another quality start of 6 or 7 innings and then let the dominant Yankees bullpen take over to close it out.  I'm close to making this a $$ play (I can already hear the cries of noooooooooo).  I just wish the line was not quite that high.  I also am looking at the Arizona team total under 4. 

Also, any hockey guys looking at this Pitt/Tampa game?  Wonder why Tampa is a home dog?  They played Pitt extremely tough first two games on the road even without Bishop.  Not sure if he will come back today or not, but seems like Tampa's size will be a thorn in Pitt's side for this entire series. 

I already bet Tampa Bay to win the series at +170 so will likely just let that bet ride instead of betting directly on game 3.
 
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Posted: #28
$$$$ CLE tt o 4.5 (-120)
Back to the well with CLE
- Finnegan having big time control issues
- CLE sorching hot offense right now (#6)
-CIN bullpen worst in league and have been worked hard
- a little wind boost, ball park is historically high for runs per game though only 15th this year
-away team so guarnteed 9 innings worth of at bats
 
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Posted: #29

$$$$ Brewers +.5 1st 5 (+105) $$$$

 

John Lackey has been excellent his last three games, and they were all at home. His splits so far this season show an ERA that is twice as high on the road and at night than it is at home and during the day. Jimmy Nelson allowed only 1 run in the 1st 5 on 4/28 at Chicago and has allowed no more than 2 runs in his last 5 home games (1st 5 innings). After seeing the Cubs lack of offense last night, I believe it is possible that it will happen again tonight.

 

$$$$ Brewers +.5 1st 5 (+105) $$$$

Money is a good servant, but a bad master
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by Davitch:

$$$$ Baltimore (Tillman) -110 $$$$

I was going to jump on this quickly last, but didn't see the Wednesday thread.  It worked out in the end as the line has moved from -120.  I don't know why the O's aren't getting less value.  Sure, Seattle beat up on them the last game, but anytime you have a guy who is 5-1 scheduled on the mound you've gotta roll with him.

Baltimore has a very good home record despite playing a Mariner's side that plays tough on the road.  Tillman also lost to Walker in a match last year in a close one, but I think with the extra "revenge" factor from being shut-out last game, and the fact that the O's are 7-1 in games with Tillman tossing a ball, you've got to take what  the big guys are giving.

There she be!

$$$$ Record 1-0 $$$$

I don't know why there hasn't been any love shown for this pick.  There sure is a lot of value in the BALT side of the line.  I got it earlier at -106 and -109.  It's moving up and down, but any reasonable juice seems like a good investment.
 
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Posted: #31
@Pimp - be careful on Eovaldi, he is a better pitcher than one would think just looking at his win/loss record.  He seems like he is finally emerging this year as a guy a team can depend on for consistency and an inning eater.  He has got a dirty sinker that strikes out a lot of guys when he is on.  Plus, check out his metrics this year vs right handed batters and then look at Arizona's projected lineup. 

I am giving more and more thought to making a $$ play on Arizona team total under.  As for Shelby Miller, who knows what he is going to do.  I can see him imploding yet again or perhaps matching Eovaldi inning for inning.  Yanks bullpen so much better than Arizona though.
 
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Posted: #32
$$$ Pirates TT OVER 3.5 -110 $$$

Posted a little while ago but I'm not seeing it here. So let me try again. In Pirates last 4 wins vs ATL they've scored 5+ runs (3 in the 4th win). Combine that with Tehrans 3+ ERA and a tired ATL bullpen theres no way the pirates can't score 4 runs. I feel this is the safest play here but I'm also on pirates ML got it early at -162 (obviously too high for $$ play) and RL. Let's get this $ tonight fade or follow.

$$$ Pirates TT over 3.5 -110 $$$

Also on
Giants ML (1unit)
Nats ML (1unit)
Nat's/Mets under 7 +110 (1unit)
CSW ML +110 (1unit)

1/2 unit parlay paying 5 to 1
Warriors ML
Cubs ML
Pirates ML
CWS ML

 
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Posted: #33
Astros are a road favorite....albeit small, against the white sox...line doesn't make sense...

$$$$Astros are a $$$$ play
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by forty9ersfan80:

$$$$ play golden state -8.5

It seems to me that everyone is overreacting to one game in this series and all of a sudden the thunder are gonna just sweep the warriors. The thunder have been very impressive no doubt and deserve credit for beating the spurs 3 straight and then going into golden state and winning game 1.  The second half of game 1 was very unlike golden state to turn the ball over a ton and rush shots. They were held to 14 points in the 4th quarter which i would guess would be the first time that has happened all season.  Golden state can not afford to go down 0-2 in this series and i expect them to come out on a mission.  Although its a small sample size after a loss during the season and in these playoffs golden state is 10-0 and 7-3 ats. Other trends to consider Thunder are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Golden State. Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Golden state gets it done 120-103.

I saw a stat that made me take OKC plus the points in the Ultimate Race: OKC 3-5 at GS/SA. The rest of the league 3-83 at GS/SA.

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Posted: #35
Tailing u guys on pitts but take team total over since the ml is a tad high. Teheran is fade material.

Tailing-1 rl boston with price.

Tailing topflight sd under.

Lets get this money today
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Posted: #36
$$$$ Arizona Diamondbacks team total under 4 (-120) $$$$

Disclaimer: I am on an ice cold streak with $$ plays, so please keep that in mind or maybe fade me if you think I am mush material.  I won't take offense.

I likely would have made Yankees my $$ play instead, but the line for this has moved up a lot since I started looking into it.  Thus, I go with the team total under instead which I also think should hit.

Over his career thus far Eovaldi has done well vs Arizona posting a 3.08 ERA with a WHIP of 1.03 and BAA of .187.  All very nice numbers! 

Next, if one looks at his split stats in pitching effectiveness vs right handed batters compared to lefties, Eovaldi has done quite a bit better this season pitching to right handed batters.  In looking at Arizona's lineup card, I am seeing all righties except for Jake Lamb.

Looking at Arizona's lineup in more detail, there is nobody that has a lot of history facing Eovaldi, which is a plus for the pitcher I think.  Jean Segura and Phil Gosselin both sport a solid batting average against Eovaldi, but it is based on only 7 and 8 total at bats respectively.  Plus, every single one of those hits was just a single.

As far as I can see, nobody in the Arizona lineup has had a home run vs Eovaldi.  Goldschmidt is only 2 for 10 with one double (and 4 Ks) while Jake Lamb has never had an at bat against Eovaldi.  Since Arizona generates a lot of offense from the long ball, this is something to focus on.

Not only that, Eovaldi (when he is on) generates a lot of ground balls which is good since Arizona is a hitter's park and home run park.  Eovaldi has a powerful fast ball combined with a few off speed pitches and a nasty sinker that is his strike out pitch.  I took a quick look at the weather, and I do not see anything that would hurt Eovaldi, and that assumes the stadium is open for the game.

In conclusion, I see Eovaldi being able to pitch 6 or 7 quality innings, giving up no more than 2 runs (maybe 3 tops).  From there it is up to the bullpen, and Yankees have a deadly top 3 that are great for closing games (similar to how Kansas City was last year).  So as long as Eovaldi does his job, I think Arizona will be hard pressed to score > 4 runs. Thus, the bet should be a winner from the way I see it.

$$$$ Arizona Diamondbacks team total under 4 $$$$
 
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Posted: #37
=== EARLY KICK OFF THURSDAY 1:00 PM EST ===

$$$$ Örebro TEAM TOTAL OVER 1.5 (vs Gefle) -102 $$$$

Soccer - Sweden - Allsvenskan

Ok, so this is Örebro scoring over 1.5 goal against Gefle, not the total in the game. Even though it wasn't a $-play I did post that I liked, and failed, the over 2.5 in Örebro - Elfsborg this past weekend. The match itself didn't disappoint though, both teams created great chances, especially Örebro who finally got the well deserved three points after 1-0 in the 94th minute.

I'm repeating myself about Örebro. Really like their offense, the defense have improved from kind of poor to decent, and especially keeper Rinne have been great.

Gefle have been in kind of a free fall. They've conceded 17 goals in the last four games and now go head to head against another offensive capable team. They are without important defensive central midfielder Robin Nilsson, who is injured. Their two keepers have altered between the pipes, but Andersson, who have been the better of the two is injured and Hedvall will instead be in the net. With Hedvall in net they've conceded 3, 6, 6 in his last three starts. With Andersson 2, 0, 1, 2 goals. I'm not blaming Hedvall alone, the defense have been horrible. But I imagine his confidence level is not at its best.

I really like Örebros chances here, but their defense have been on and off during the season and before last games clean sheet (first since september), they conceded 12 goals in five games (and scoring 13). I'll take over 1.5 instead of the away win, even though I think they will get the three points. They will probably need two goals to get the win anyway, but at the same time Rinne have been great and could get another clean sheet if the D-line put up a great effort as well.

From the beginning I was glancing at the over 2.5 but the price is -135 and as I said, Rinne could shut out the Gefle offense. We'll rely on Örebro to get two goals instead.

If you can't get the 'team total' you could take the away win at +105 or +110. But I'm going with over 1.5 at close to even money.

$$$$ Örebro TEAM TOTAL OVER 1.5 (vs Gefle) -102 $$$$


Great to get that Malmö win today. Still can't figure out why the odds went up to +140 pre game. In my opinion I was lucky to get +126 to begin with. Malmö has the deepest squad in the league. They are better on every position and even many of their bench players today are top players in the league and would be stars no doubt in Hammarby and many other teams. And when "close to national team" wing back Tinnerholm was suspended today, they replaced him with actual national team player Lewicki (normally central midfielder, but very skilled). At the same time Hammarby had to replace their central defender with at youngster who they then had to sub out in half time and replace with an older "panic transfer" due to their lengthy injury list in defense.

Good to see some of you cashing Malmö, BOL if you decide to play Örebro.
 
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Posted: #38
$$$$ L.A DODGERS $$$$

My money is on the late game LA Dodgers. Dodgers are 8-2 last 10 meetings. I see much of the same here. Count it as a $$$$ play or not all I kno is that my $$$$ is in it. 
 
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Posted: #39
Havent posted for a while have been on vacay. On the Pirates -1.5 as well but my $$$$$$ play is in the NHL.

TB+100

The Lightning have really played Pittsburgh tough going 1-1 on the road and easily could have won both games. The Penguins have really had problems containing the transition game and the speed of the Lightning forwards. Furthermore Murray has started to give up some bad goals not playing anywhere near as good as he did against the Caps. Take the home dog for +money.
 
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Posted: #40
Thx Chuckles - good to see some other comments on the NHL game.  Tampa is listed at +170 - +180 still to win the series.  Am I crazy for thinking that is a decent risk/reward bet?  I bet it at least, only a unit though.  As you note, Tampa just about won game 2, had some nice opportunities late in 3rd period that just missed.
 
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Posted: #41
FYI - Bishop is OUT for Tampa Bay today.  He may return for game 4

In MLB:

Frazier is back in the White Sox lineup

Donaldson is OUT for Toronto Blue Jays.  Oops sorry, game already started but hope any Toronto backers saw that before betting
 
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Posted: #42
Cleve up 2-0 yes. Keep it up and i smell money. Although my team is up, in bases, it is not over till it is over. Im still sweating bullets until i get a 10 runs cushion.
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Posted: #43
Yea!

Indians up 4-1, top of 6th, 2 outs, 2 guys on bases ... and Finnegan is out!

Which means that the merry band of the Reds' pyromaniacs are about to play!

I have Indians O 4.5 for +110

Let's go ... just one more run, Indians, man!


 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:

Yea!

Indians up 4-1, top of 6th, 2 outs, 2 guys on bases ... and Finnegan is out!

Which means that the merry band of the Reds' pyromaniacs are about to play!

I have Indians O 4.5 for +110

Let's go ... just one more run, Indians, man!



Took Indians TT as well this evening. Nice win.

 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by MaxWagner:


I don't know why there hasn't been any love shown for this pick.  There sure is a lot of value in the BALT side of the line.  I got it earlier at -106 and -109.  It's moving up and down, but any reasonable juice seems like a good investment.

 
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Posted: #46
Tomorrow's thread is live. 
 
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Posted: #47
Sell me your clev tix. Har har har. Overtime wk same pay lol
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Posted: #48
Man, I just need Yankees to win + SF under 6.5 to hit a very nice MLB parlay.  C'mon baseball Gods, gotta give me a crumb once in a while, yes?

Eovaldi 6IP giving up 1 hit and 1 run with 5 Ks.  Quality start.  Just need the Yanks bullpen to live up to their billing now!
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