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CHASE THE PLAYOFFS...RD.2

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Posted: #326
Hey Angle-

Your subtle clues led me to them - thanks!

I was going back across previous weeks and trying to compile the season record for both nfl and college. I haven't seen yet if I can go back to prior years. 

From what I've seen so far, NFL is definitely more reliable than NCAA. Once I have more figures documented, I'm going to run some numbers and see if it makes sense to play the college angles only if they fit into multiple angles, or something like that. 

And I want to break down the NFL over / unders too. 

Thanks again. 
Roscoe
 
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Posted: #327
Be honest, anyone bet SD in the 2nd half? I didn't even think about it, but normally that would have been a play for me.

This play on Denver was a chase for me and I could not bet against it even though it normally would have been a good idea.
 
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Posted: #328
Quote Originally Posted by Roscoe2330:

Hey Angle-

Your subtle clues led me to them - thanks!

I was going back across previous weeks and trying to compile the season record for both nfl and college. I haven't seen yet if I can go back to prior years. 

From what I've seen so far, NFL is definitely more reliable than NCAA. Once I have more figures documented, I'm going to run some numbers and see if it makes sense to play the college angles only if they fit into multiple angles, or something like that. 

And I want to break down the NFL over / unders too. 

Thanks again. 
Roscoe


Glad u found it, looking forward to your research, but I can tell you that college has not done well this year.

Also, they start out with September angles in both NCAA and NFL and then switch to full season angles in October, if you haven't noticed. The full season angles since 2005 for NFL are the bomb!
I'm glad you found them and know that I am not a genius or something like Semper and McShady.

One thing I can tell you and WRITE THIS DOWN...When the NHL playoffs start (assuming they do) last year they had a DOG record winning outright at a very nice clip in the first and second rounds! Imagine if you can. Dogs at PLUS money and winning outright more often than not! It was amazing! Something like 15-6 dog winners, I can't remember it was so awesome!

I hope this hasn't bursted anyone's bubble, but I have always hinted where I was finding the plays. The only thing I did was to massage the line for optimum situation and suggest parlay with teams with multiple angles.

The first time I posted NCAAF it lost, so I stopped and glad I did. I also stopped wagering on them. McShady's advice about gambling vs. winning held true on NCAAF. They don't work as well due to the mis-matches, blowouts, back door covers, etc that are more prevalent in college football.

That's why I only strongly recommend the NCAAF correlated parlay system where you place 2 bets which are 2 team parlays on any game where the spread divided by total equals 35% or more.
Some books do not take a bet with this type of percentage of spread vs total.

Bet 1 FAVE/OVER
Bet 2 DOG/UNDER

On the SAME game.

It has been profitable again this year. I've done this now for at least 6 years! Best if you have a local who will take anything.
 
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Posted: #329
McShady, before I forget, what is the deal with UCONN, are they going to cover a game or should we chase!!!

I'm an Oklahoma fan and I was going to bet Texas until I saw your play, THANKS!
 
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Posted: #330
You know guys, being on the right side of the largest comeback in the history of MNF, compares almost identically to being on the under in a no-hitter or perfect game...

Or just as equal to that...Taking the other them when the Cowboys are favored!!!
 
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Posted: #331
I tailed you the Inside Angler and played the Broncos +1.5 and Under. I thought they were done but I knew they would win second half, if my bookie did Live bets, I would have bet Denver 2nd half no doubt. Oh well, I still made out on top betting an extra unit on the Side.

Thanks again.
 
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Posted: #332
Sorry McShady for monopolizing the thread tonite, just so much excitement from the wire to wire blowout win by Denver!

Angle out for real... Goodnight to all and remember, I can and will be wrong more often than Semper or McShady. They are the ones to follow. Anything I can do is because of them. Without them there would be no me!!!

Let's kick some ass tomorrow! Sorry for the late night posts, hope I didn't bore anyone. I really want everyone to win every day, even though not always possible. Sunday/Monday were my BIGGEST days of NFL this year.

That doesn't mean it will keep going...Goodnight and thanks to all for the kind remarks and checking in. Together, we are stronger!


 
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Posted: #333
Quote Originally Posted by McShady:


No telling what the future holds. Covers gets out of hand sometimes then some of the other threads or just unreadable that people act like that. So semper and I have actually discussed maybe starting a private thread and see what happens for next year

I can understand what you mean about some people here on covers. Can be hard to deal with.. I respect your work very much, have been watching you for the last past months. But i would really like to learn from you guys picks and improve my own picks. So hopefully i can get in that private thread if that will be the case. 

Are you and semper posting your play any other place than here on covers? So that if you dont like me in your private thread i can still see your picks and learn from them?

Thanks in advance.

Big applause to you and semper
 
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Posted: #334

Can someone please post the spreadsheet link again please?

 
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Posted: #335
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AnPGLJS7rK4fdE5DOUo4SFFYTmNEdkRJZ1JxOXBhc0E&f=true&noheader=true&gid=19
 
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Posted: #336

semperfi19  Is your MLB lean on the yanks a play or just a lean you are throwing out there.

 
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Posted: #337
Angle4U999  I googled the bold print for the angles and the plays on the site were different than what you posted.  I guess i am a google degenerate.
 
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Posted: #338
Quote Originally Posted by magicgooser:

Hate to have my first post as a potentially dumb question shady but does your proline ss typically change a lot once things are posted? I placed some bets on Friday that didn't go we'll and I see they are all posted as the opposite side now. Maybe I'm interpreting wrong?

Anyways thanks for all of the threads insights, first season betting on MLB and it really helped me get a feel for things. 

Welcome. Everyone is going to use the Pro-Line sheet differently. But most important they are not my plays or even Newfie's. They are simply a starting point to look at plays based on a TREND that Newfie has brought to the group to share. As always I like to take an original concept and make it better. So Trends do chg based on changing results. I only play Dogs in NFL so I focus on them the most. For example the only 2 plays from that list I played sunday were Seahawks & Packers. 


If u have any ? Fire away. Most guys on here can answer it for ya
 
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Posted: #339
Quote Originally Posted by McShady:



Looks good! Im putting a 1000 dollhairs on it...

I have more bald dolls around my house from these stupid bets!
 
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Posted: #340
Any trends in the heavyweight battle between N Texas and Louisiana Lafayette? Not that I am a degenerate looking for action!
 
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Posted: #341
Quote Originally Posted by Riceboi:

What you guys think about no runs 1st inning for giants/cards game? Yes it is juiced to about -150, but looks like a good bet for this pitching matchup.
I took the to score in 1st @+130..along w/SFO -1/2 , -1 @+104.....cha-ching.....I post in soccer forum .
 
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Posted: #342
@billyloco

Whatcha got in WC Qual today?
 
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Posted: #343
Nevermind. Saw ur thread. GL
 
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Posted: #344
Angle, can you verify the NCAAF Correlated Parlays this week are:

Wisconsin -18/Over 45 (40%)
Georgia -28/Over 58 (48%)
Utah St -30/Over 56 (53.5%)
Boise St -28/Over 53.5 (52%)
Alabama -20.5/Over 56 (36.5%)
USC -41/Over 57.5 (71%)
Central Flordia -23.5/Over 50.5 (46.5%)
Louisiana Tech -30.5/Over 73.5 (41.5%)
Oklahoma -35/Over 57.5 (61%)
Mississippi St -20/Over 56 (36%)

And obviously vice versa (dog/under).  20 total parlays.
 
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Posted: #345
Angle, I almost bet Sd and under 2nd half. Then read mcShady had no play so backed off. Thanks McShady.
 
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Posted: #346
Thx for all the well wishes. But got some bad news...I was informed our trip is only 7 days cause finding someone to watch our kids for 10days is impossible. Haha. Oh well 7 will have to do...
 
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Posted: #347
Quote Originally Posted by Roscoe2330:

Hey Angle-

Your subtle clues led me to them - thanks!

I was going back across previous weeks and trying to compile the season record for both nfl and college. I haven't seen yet if I can go back to prior years. 

From what I've seen so far, NFL is definitely more reliable than NCAA. Once I have more figures documented, I'm going to run some numbers and see if it makes sense to play the college angles only if they fit into multiple angles, or something like that. 

And I want to break down the NFL over / unders too. 

Thanks again. 
Roscoe

Hey Roscoe, 

The only site I'm finding is a pay site, $50 in free picks for signing up.  I don't think thats the right one.  Would you please let me know if thats it.  If not I'm the dumbest because I can't find it.

Thx,
BWD


 
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Posted: #348
Angle - I bet Denver - 1/2 for 4Q at Halftime.

Thanks for the Angles (and yes, I found them too).  

Shady/Semper - Same as others, would like to join/follow/share if this thread goes private.  Hopefully I will be able to contribute profitably at the start of next season.

   to all.  

Today:
NYY/DET - 

Waiting for line but Verander at home allows a run in first inning 4/16 or 25% this year.  Hughes away allows run in first inning 5/16 or 31% this year.  Leaning no score in first.  Will not bet if over -140.

Will chase first to score loses starting today. LCS for 2010 and 2011, first to score is 13-11.  Currently 4-0 in 2012 LCS.

Hughes away scored first 10/16 times and lost 6 (2-4 when opposing scores first)
Verlander home scored first 9/16 and lost 1 (5-2 when opposing scored first)

Summary: Hughes away score first loses 50% (8/16)
Verlander at home score first loses 37.5% (6/16)

BOL
 
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Posted: #349
bluewaterdude  I  having the same problem when I insert the bold words into google.
 
 
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Posted: #350
@mj good info.  So the chase starts tonight?  How come you didn't start the chase with game #1?
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