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Into the home stretch ... back to Omaha.
Even the change to the big seam ball in D1 back in 2015 has been unable to conquer TD Ameritrade as an unders heaven for the College World Series. The general rule of thumb the last few years for me has been when you see a double digit total in Omaha and you've got competent pitching - go unders on the total.
In 2016, none of the six first round games had more than eight runs. For the entire tournament, only three of the 17 games played went to double digits and only one more had as many as nine runs. Everything else was eight or under. Considered the massive number of homers and the awesome offense that eventual champs Coastal Carolina had, it's no surprise that they accounted for two of those three games. Two of the three double digit games came in the semifinal round.
In 2015, there two two double digit games in round one and three more along the way to Virginia winning the title. Overall though, 11 of 16 games once again finished under double digits and only one of those 11 had as many as nine runs. So making unders an auto play on any double digit total has been a winning proposition regardless of who is on the field in Omaha. To each his own on that trend and what you like to do, but the stats don't lie. I always look over the pitching information to make sure it makes sense, but more often than not TD Ameritrade makes it make sense for you.
Day 1: Saturday, June 17th
Pick #1: LSU-Florida State Under 10 @ +100
LSU: Alex Lange 9-5 (2.82)
FSU: Tyler Holton 10-2 (2.25)
This is a good first test to the double digit unders theory. You've got two great talents on the mound and two offenses that can rake. Lange was solid in the Super Regionals, giving up three runs on three hits in a 4-3 win over Mississippi State. His only issue was walks, he had six but offset that with ten Ks in 7.2 IP. It was an improvement after he was roughed up a little against Southeastern Louisiana in the Regionals, giving up five runs in 6 IP. Lange was electric in his first postseason start, a seven inning shutout performance against a powerful Kentucky lineup.
Holton was hurt by shaky defense in his Super Regional start against Sam Houston State. Holton only gave up six hits in 6.2 IP, but allowed six runs with only two of them earned. Walks were also an issue with four against the Bearkats. His Regional start was much cleaner, a CG win over UCF where he struck out 13 and allowed just one unearned run. That came on the heels of a dominant showing at the ACC Tournament, where Holton limited Louisville to one run in 8 innings, while striking out 11.
Both these pitchers have dynamic stuff and the bullpens are both very good with multiple versatilie arms. Both teams also have very solid closers. You could be scared off here with the big run totals both teams have put up at-times in their postseason runs. However, transitioning to the bigger ballpark that seems to kill fly balls and being Game One of the CWS, I'm happy to try the under trend in this one.
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Oh well! Under looks good though so we'll win one together haha
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