denvedder - MLB contest - sides - incredible run

Exactly. I’m trying to make money, not brag on the internets about playing $100 a game. I bet $500-$5000 on games. Some people are just jealous haters. 

lost juice cause I took the 1.5 line 

all good lm looking forward to the next pick 

Congrats, 4luck. Everyones B@nk is different. Am @200.00 a game girlie.Dennys really stepping up his game 3todayn everyday picks got to love itttt.

Dodgers -250

KC -150

NYY -145

@smellybunty

 Think they all win for a 3 teamer ?

all 3 looks good the one I would be worried is the Yankees 

Gil is the truth......

Faced the O's earlier this year....

No runs allowed.....

Day ERA under 1.00.....

@Bill7

calculate the probability....?

He went 1 - 1 yesterday and is now changing the pattern of his picks. Tread lightly and watch over the next 5 - 6 days how his picks do and see if there is a regression.

40-5 is guaranteed regression. Doesn't mean you can't make good money though. 2nd half of season is different. Now you are gonna have to pay up the azz for proven teams. May be a value there is you think they are worse than their record and the opposite for teams who didn't start great. But it is a different game.

Handicapping an awesome handicapper.

The guy is real good.  You have no idea whether his next game is going to cash or not.  Why don’t you handicap the same game yourself?  Do you even know how?  Apparently you know how to handicap this guy though!

Just thank the guy for posting.  

Statistical jargon doesn’t make you a handicapper much less a handicapper of another handicapper on a real profitable run.

im glad I laid off the Yankees 

still good day for everyone 2-1 

great job DV

NYY even

Phillies -145

@smellybunty

Thanks.

Record: 44 - 6 = 88%

PHI -145

NYY +100

BOL.

For those using regression, remember that future events are independent of past events.  Thus, three spins of red in a row does not imply an increased likelihood of black on the upcoming spins to "even it out".  

not sure red and black streaks apply as much in sports pickers ... but hope he keeps it going ... RARE not to have regression in sports picking ....  

@MrECapps

The question was, does he hit 92% for the whole season? I said no, but now they have changed their betting pattern and everything is off the table (for me) I'm curious if they'll still hit at a 88% rate the rest of the season. I'll wait and see how they do over the next week to see if anything weird happens (like an 0-2 / 0-3 day).

His first 0-3 day of the season. Tail him tomorrow. He will get back on track. 

@DeezyAZ81

 
Mathematically, based on his record, I’m just saying, there could there be a small amount of regression?

Imagine tailing during his 26 win streak ,could've been retired after that ....

Now 4 picks ??

seems like chasing losses to me 

faded last night .. will do the same tonight 

@TokyoJoe19

 He will go 3-1 or 4-0 ... 

What are his plays for today?

Phillies-250

Twins-175

Seattle-165

Yankees-145

Remember guys, he is trying to win a contest, not make money. If you bet these sides you need 75%, 3 of 4, to show a profit.

Average implied probability is 56.7%, but that may not matter as implied probability and true probability are not the same thing.