Detroit/Seattle (4/1/25)

Posted Record: 4-2 (+2.01 units)

Tonight, I like the Mariners to take game 2 vs Detroit. I realize their offense is suspect, but you don't need to score a lot of runs when Logan Gilbert is on the mound.

Gilbert is an elite pitcher and one of my favorites to make a run at the Cy Young. He brings outstanding control, limits hard contact, and excels in just about every metric. Over 208.2 innings, he finished 2024 with the following stats:

- 3.23 ERA (ranked 10th)

- 0.89 WHIP (ranked 1st)

- 3.29 FIP (ranked 10th)

- K Rate at 27.4% (80th percentile)

- Walk Rate at 4.6% (95th percentile)

- Barrel rate at 7% (65th percentile)

- GB Rate at 47% (70th percentile)

Casey Mize had a rough 2024. He was in the bottom half of the league in just about every meaningful metric. However, the word is he improved over the offseason, with an uptick in velocity and better command. He also had an excellent Spring. However, I can't imagine he gives them more than 4-5 innings, and I'm confident he can't hang with Gilbert for 6 or 7. I mention 6-7 innings because Gilbert led the majors in innings pitched and gave his team at least 6 innings in 27 of his 33 starts. With that, I expect Detroit to be the first to call the pen, and their bullpen is significantly weaker than Seattle's.

Gilbert cancels any offensive advantage Detroit might bring. -165 is not a line I'm accustomed to laying. However, I think it's a steal in this spot, and I'm happy to take it. If you're opposed to juice, you can get the M's at -115 (or better) at -1. With the possibility of losing a half inning of offense, I don't recommend laying -1.5 on home teams.

I'm on the Mariners at -165

Cheers and bol to everyone

LFG

I’m tailing you the entire year     With my work schedule I will never have the knowledge to wager correctly on MLB.  NFL and tennis w some NBA. 

BOL! 

Great write up with reasoning Thank You

@Kaufee

@Kaufee

 I'm surprised you're not on the Giants again with Webb on the mound and laying only 20 cents extra against Houston's 5th starter with the Giants offense rolling.

-frisco

At -165, the books are in agreement with all you wrote. Starter edge, BP edge, should be a winner. M's hitting .188 to start the season scares me off. Plus the young Tigs have come out swinging, .293 vs. some pretty good pitching. You gotta score to win. On the positive side, the M's scored 6 last night; maybe it'll carry over to tonight.

Don't like fading Gilbert and don't like betting on a team that's not hitting. Liked your play last night, but gonna leave this one alone. Thanks for taking all the time to write it up.

RT2

@Kaufee

 Bol tonight KF

Thanks everyone 

@RayRayK - I get the work schedule. I used to be on the road 3-4 days per week. Now, I’m in front of a computer 80% of the time. 

@friscogiants - Looked hard at the Giants. I think a few guys won’t be available out of the pen and Wesneski isn’t bad. Still not a bad play, just didn’t check enough boxes for me. 

@RebelTell2 - I respect that rebel. The offense had me on the fence. But it came down to the data for me. The chance that Seattle gets to Mize is significantly higher than Detroit getting to Gilbert. I wouldn’t have paid much more than 165, but felt that price was more than fair 

Good luck mate  , glad to see you doing well and getting a lot of positive interaction , you deserve it . Always cheering for ya . 

@Kaufee

Nice write up

GL

GL 

GL Kaufee

Thanks for stopping by everyone

@Aussiejesse - appreciate that Jesse, thanks man. Hope all is well down under and bol with your action too

The bad Gilbert showed up today smh 

Gilbert only has a few bad starts a year and of course tonight is one of em. But what I really can’t watch anymore is this offense

At least we can stop watching. Can’t believe I unloaded on this pathetic offense. They are on my DNBL for the rest of the season

The Mariners can’t hit at all