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Devils Advocate 7/25

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Posted: #1
The purpose of this thread is to pick apart the "easy" games today.

I'll list what games I think present themselves as "easy" and then will attempt to make a strong enough case for the other side to warrant a play in posts throughout the day.

Arizona -130
Haren over Sanchez

Angels -125
Saunders over Burress

TB -111
Jackson over Bannister

Braves +112
Jurggens over Kendrick

If you see my theme developing, its the same as always...unpopular home teams...dogs or favorites. The Braves line has me baffled. I would have set this line at Kendrick -120 and have no idea why its 30 cents the other way.

On Tampa and Arizona...these two, with their abysmal road records should not be laying chalk to anyone on the road. You can probably fade it every time for the rest of the year and make money on it.

Baltimore may not be a play as I'm struggling to find reasons to back the O's outside of their success vs LHP over RHP.
 
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Posted: #2
Kendrick has only beaten the Braves 3 times this season.
I guess the Phillies struggling bats are finally showing up in the price.
Phillies tonoght for sure, probably all weekend.
 
And why does the Covers matchup page give the checkmark to the Braves pen over the Phils pen?
 
 
 
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Posted: #3
I'm on the Phils at -113, KOAJ.
I would not bet Baltimore. I think their skid has started.
As for TB, maybe they're "due" Ha Ha.
I know nothing about the other game.
Outside of NL East, i'm an American Leaguer.
GL
 
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Posted: #4
Braves +112
Jurggens over Kendrick

The Braves line has me baffled. I would have set this line at Kendrick -120 and have no idea why its 30 cents the other way.

---------------------

Assuming .10 juice, wouldn't Braves +112 mean the line on Philly is -122?  If so, doesn't that seem to be exactly in line with your thinking?  Where's the 30 cent error?


 
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Posted: #5
devil - you're right...im an idiot


 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by 3rd_and_Long:

Kendrick has only beaten the Braves 3 times this season.
I guess the Phillies struggling bats are finally showing up in the price.
Phillies tonoght for sure, probably all weekend.
 
And why does the Covers matchup page give the checkmark to the Braves pen over the Phils pen?
 
 


mark wohlers was activated...as was john rocker


 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:



mark wohlers was activated...as was john rocker


And that gets them the nod over the best pen in the NL?

Acosta being on the DL does improve there pen though, addition by subtraction.

 
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Posted: #8
John Rocker.....funny
 
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Posted: #9
 
Does that change your thinking on the game?
 
Braves suck on the road but Jurrjens has good road #'s and is probably their best pitcher.  My initial lean is to the fightins though.
 
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Posted: #10
Koaj, the Rays on the road is NOT easy....last night same scenario and look an the result....nothing easy or pretty about the rays record on the road.......
 
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Posted: #11
I like Philly in this spot
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by firefighterben:

Koaj, the Rays on the road is NOT easy....last night same scenario and look an the result....nothing easy or pretty about the rays record on the road.......


exactly...i think you miss the point of the thread

the 4 games listed above are "easy" based on simplistic perceptions...however, what is the reality of each game? where does the value lie?
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

 
Does that change your thinking on the game?
 
Braves suck on the road but Jurrjens has good road #'s and is probably their best pitcher.  My initial lean is to the fightins though.


not at all. i still like philly
 
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Posted: #14
I just put all my plays in and I see I went advocate on everyone your listed above.
 
-  cr umbs - -
 
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:

devil - you're right...im an idiot




Well said 
 
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Posted: #16
Why no  more - c rumbs - plays?
 
-cr u mbs - were on fire when they started.
 
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Posted: #17
I have picked apart the La/Balt game a little.  Pretty much everything points in the direction of the Angels other than the fact Burres is 2-0 against them...but two starts isn't much to work with.  My initial lean was Baltimore but I think I am crossing them off my list.  The Angels are 18-6 against lefties this year...good enough for me.  No play.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

 
Does that change your thinking on the game?
 
Braves suck on the road but Jurrjens has good road #'s and is probably their best pitcher.  My initial lean is to the fightins though.

 

Hudson is their best pitcher.....Keep in mind that Chipper tweaked his hammy so he will be out

 
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Posted: #19
Papi-- you are probably right but Jurrjens isn't far behind him, if at all.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

Why no  more - c rumbs - plays?
 
-cr u mbs - were on fire when they started.


sorry..cr umbs plays were a one time thing...
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:

The purpose of this thread is to pick apart the "easy" games today.

I'll list what games I think present themselves as "easy" and then will attempt to make a strong enough case for the other side to warrant a play in posts throughout the day.

Arizona -130
Haren over Sanchez

Angels -125
Saunders over Burress

TB -111
Jackson over Bannister

Braves +112
Jurggens over Kendrick

If you see my theme developing, its the same as always...unpopular home teams...dogs or favorites. The Braves line has me baffled. I would have set this line at Kendrick -120 and have no idea why its 30 cents the other way.

On Tampa and Arizona...these two, with their abysmal road records should not be laying chalk to anyone on the road. You can probably fade it every time for the rest of the year and make money on it.

Baltimore may not be a play as I'm struggling to find reasons to back the O's outside of their success vs LHP over RHP.

Burres is 2-0 with 2.84 era vs the Angels and Saunders is 3-0 with 5.63 vs the birds....I like the O's but probably best to stay away

How you can play the Royals or the Rays is beyond me. I learned yesterday not to play the Rays on the road and I have learned the hard way not to play the Royals also this year

Seems like if Chipper is out tonight the Pub will think that Phills are too easy tonight. Kendrick has not lost to the Braves in his career...

Sanchez is a stud but I dont think I can fade Haren right now, road or home...D-backs hitting the ball a little better vs the Cubbies

No talk about the big series tonight ??? I might fade Joba tonight

 
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Posted: #22
OK call me a square but I already went with ATL, BOS and ARI
 
Good luck on the contrarian angle, but I track these things in detail and the contrarian plays went ice cold when July came around.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by DevilFan:

Papi-- you are probably right but Jurrjens isn't far behind him, if at all.

 

I like Jurrgens and think he will be good. I think the righty Jurrjens is gonna get hit tonight. Phils will be a square play tonight I would believe...

 
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Posted: #24
papi - i try and stay away from yanks/sox games...too involved anyway, losing the game and money is a bad double whammy

the philly/atl game is moving as i expected...for some reason, early money went to atl and i have no idea why. i'm bidding for philly on matchbook now...we'll see if i get my price

 
 
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Posted: #25
 
O yea....Why in the hell is Cliff Lee -220 against anybody ?? I dont care how good he has been. I dont want to lay 220 with the Indians to anybody
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