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Devils Advocate 7/25

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Posted: #26
livan is incredibly hittable but agreed on the insanity of the line
 
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Posted: #27
I like the Phills as well KOAJ, and unlike Big Papi, I don't think Philly will be a square play here, not after Kendrick was owned in the last 2 games and not after what Perez did to them last night (11 Ks + the way he handled Howard is more than impressive).

However, the Phills struggle against LHPs, they will step up here if you ask me. GL
 
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Posted: #28
playing:

KC +100

San Fran +130

could have had better lines an hour ago but if someone can predict line movements you could make a mint without ever wagering
 
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Posted: #29
 
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Posted: #30
KOAJ, wagerline shows 70%+ on the Phillies.  I'll take the better SP at (+) and go with Vegas on this one.  Besides, Kendrick blows. 
 
KC and SF are the right sides IMHO.  Same with BAL and maybe even DET (!).  I saw that opening line with Robertson laying -120 v. Danks and said, WTF?  No way.  That's telling you something right there (also an o/u of 10.5 means get ready for some volatility...).
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #31
C - sportsinsights had 65% on atl this morning...moved down to about 50/50 now

i still like philly...but over -120 i may stay away

det/chisox will be like beer league softball this weekend. my fantasy teams look forward to it
 
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Posted: #32
Your fantasy teams?  Reporters everywhere are too.
 
"This is the first time I've worn this uniform without being hungover."

Chicago White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen, on wearing 1983 throwback uniforms after an 8-7 loss to the Royals.

 
 
 
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Posted: #33
Kendrick isn't bad bad. He doesn't have great stuff like the underated Jurrjens and Campillo but he can hold his own or long enough to give one of the best offense in the league a chance.
 
Kendrick = money.
 
Even though it was only half a season, Kyle Kendrick was 7-1 at home last season folks! He's not on the same pace but the Phillies are 14-6 when he is on the mound thus far this season.
 
Phillies over -120 isn't being underplayed by the books. The line is spot on and money is moving accordingly, to the situations at hand.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by CKlejdys:

Your fantasy teams?  Reporters everywhere are too.
 
"This is the first time I've worn this uniform without being hungover."

Chicago White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen, on wearing 1983 throwback uniforms after an 8-7 loss to the Royals.

 
 


yes fantasy teams...and i could listen to ozzie interviews all day
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by CKlejdys:

KOAJ, wagerline shows 70%+ on the Phillies.  I'll take the better SP at (+) and go with Vegas on this one.  Besides, Kendrick blows. 
 
 
Also, Padilla, Sanchez, Livan, Dempster, Saunders, and Lee are all in top 10, and throwing today
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
 
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Posted: #36
 I'll try it.... GL KOAJ
 
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Posted: #37
I am of course a little biased...like DET at home on Fridays and LOVE the o/10.5 here - as it's sunny and 80 degrees.  As KOAJ says, this will be like a beer league softball game. 

CWS   7
DET    11
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by CKlejdys:

KOAJ, wagerline shows 70%+ on the Phillies.  I'll take the better SP at (+) and go with Vegas on this one.  Besides, Kendrick blows. 
 
KC and SF are the right sides IMHO.  Same with BAL and maybe even DET (!).  I saw that opening line with Robertson laying -120 v. Danks and said, WTF?  No way.  That's telling you something right there (also an o/u of 10.5 means get ready for some volatility...).
 
 
 
 

 

You could not pay me to back Atlanta right now....Especially on the road....I knew this would be a public play on the Phills and that exactly what it is...I know this is not right but scoresandodds has it 91/ 9  toward the Phills....Braves with no Chipper = Public play against them

 
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Posted: #39
 
good luck on em.... nothing really stands out or strikes me as a solid play regarding todays  card
 
i wont lay some of this steep home chalk either, was thinking about playing cliffy on the RL as dominant as he's been at home and minnys severe struggles against lHSP on the road but he's already faced minny twice this year... and playing -1.5s at even $$$ is really not something i want to start doing. not worth it
 
GL koaj
 
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Posted: #40
The Orioles had to play one and a half games yesterday.   Burres throws a lot of pitches and never goes deep in games
 
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Posted: #41

i almost feel like this is a good letdown spot for SF coming off the sweep of the nats, and theyre pretty awful in openers (13-20) while zona is a little better at 18-15....

but like you said arizonas road record, losing 24 of last 35,  is almost an autofade here with them laying chalk... and i think having the line  set where it is theyre definitely looking for zona money

todays card

 
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Posted: #42
Liking KC
 
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Posted: #43
right on steam - i can see why the gen pop loves haren cheap tonight

cheap for a reason? or cheap as bait?

sanchez isnt chopped liver...he is excellent and as long as he keeps his walks down, he'll be fine tonight
 
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Posted: #44

cheap as bait

 
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Posted: #45
sanchez has also struggled his last 3 outings i think 2 of them at hoem
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8:

 
#12 Kyle Kendrick
 
Also, Padilla, Sanchez, Livan, Dempster, Saunders, and Lee are all in top 10, and throwing today


The past is the past and has no bearing on this contest.  All of his periphrals stink - and he plays for a team that has given him 6.1 R/game. Highly doubtful they light up Jurrjens tonight for that - he only gives up 4.*/r per nine.
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by 3rd_and_Long:

Kendrick has only beaten the Braves 3 times this season.
I guess the Phillies struggling bats are finally showing up in the price.
Phillies tonoght for sure, probably all weekend.
 
And why does the Covers matchup page give the checkmark to the Braves pen over the Phils pen?
yeah wtf?  braves are a sinking ship.  go phils
 
 
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Posted: #48
i think the Pitt under is a "sharp" play with unknown Baek and Duke having pitched so badly lately
 
 
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Posted: #49

Quote Originally Posted by CKlejdys:



The past is the past and has no bearing on this contest.  All of his periphrals stink - and he plays for a team that has given him 6.1 R/game. Highly doubtful they light up Jurrjens tonight for that - he only gives up 4.*/r per nine.

All you have is the past to go on.

Jurrjens just got lit up for 5 on 8 hits by the Nats at home.

Bagel Sandwiches Suck
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