Dodgers @ Rangers June 16

The luckiest pitcher in all of baseball?  Chi Chi Gonzalez, hands down.  Granted, this guy has the raw potential to be very good some day (the Rangers didn't make him their 1st pick in  2013 for his looks), but, for now, he's smoke and mirrors.  ERA is a deceiving stat for many reasons, so what's driving Chi Chi's?  Luck--all across the board.  He has a hit rate of just 20% and a strand rate of 96%.  His command has been below average and his swinging strike rate is a mere 7%.  In short, his expected ERA is near 5.  Right now, he's a two-pitch pitcher (a 92+ fastball and a good slider), as he works to gain better control over his change and curve. 

He and the Rangers will be opposing Brett Anderson today, a pitcher with decent skills who could have been a pitcher with great skills had not injuries interrupted  growth.  Still, the Dodgers could do much worse.  Anderson figures to continue going pretty much as he has been this season--unless he's injured again.

The Dodgers at the current -130 appear to not present great value, but the thought of even the slightest regression for Chi Chi tells me otherwise.

Dodgers to win.

Whats your projected score of this game bro? Great analysis. Im on the under 9. Think you're right on with Chichi being smoke and mirrors but Dodgers bats havent impressed me of late. I can see Chichi giving up a few but Anderson is a solid lefty. Think we see a 4-2 5-3ish game here at the highest. GL

GL

Hey, TreyInventor

Hadn't really thought of a score, but in a hitter-friendly park, it does help both pitchers that they give up more gounders than flyballs--Anderson especially.  If I have to guess, and if Chi Chi's regression is, say, an avg of 3% across the board, I'd think 5 or 6 runs for the Dodgers alone.

(The ML will likely continue moving in favor of Texas, by the way, but the total will likely remain the same.)

Added note (for readers in general): It's rarely a good idea to change a selection you really like based on the opinion of someone else.

I don't think the book is out on Chi Chi, but I do feel he is due to get roughed up soon, no way he can keep these numbers up, hard to bet against the Rangers right now, they are too hot, I think the under is better play cause of the weather it could get shortened plus your theory on the ground balls

I don't recall the last time I saw such fortunate numbers for a pitcher to begin his season.  Of course, regression doesn't have to occur in a single game or over x starts, but Gonzalez will regress. Here's his AAA (Round Rock) surface line--admittedly a small sample of just 8 games, but more in line with his actual skills:

3-5, 43.1 IP,  4.15 ERA, 5.4 K/9, .275 oppBA.