All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

Ed Lucas on miama.

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 1276
Posts: 26
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 733
Posted: #1
He gets a walk with 2 outs bottom 8. Miami down by 2. Stanton up. Why not try and steal. Because if you get caught....you have Stanton lead off your ninth.  No awareness by bad teams. Evoldi deserves better. I needed Miami plus 1.5 to complete a sweep at 1. Qualls gives up the 2 nd run on 2 outs. Damm
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 31214
Posted: #2
Why try to steal?

You want Stanton to lead off top of the 9th instead of having a chance to tie the game with 1 swing?


Your post makes no sense.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2009
Posts: 105
Posted: #3
Yeah no reason to steal and make an out on the bases when you have your best player and best home run threat at the plate.  Stolen bases aren't free buddy
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 2619
Posted: #4
you just described the epitome of a scenario NOT to run, my good man.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 733
Posted: #5
The odds of stanton to hit a home run are minuscule first off. Even though the kid has pop. 

Dude gotta go. Only two hits all game. Change the approach.  You have the bottom ninth too ....if the steal and Stanton to get  a base hit are successful (but more importantly a higher percentage for accomplishment.) So going for the jugglier is what you guys would do and to rely on a smaller percentage to generate runs is plain ridiculous. Living on edge managing. Never will get u back in a game. Your only leverage is your guy on base.   Put him in motion. They would not care for him. Stanton is who their total focus is on.  Then the opportunity to tie or take the lead becomes closer and that's the point. 

So ask your self this. Home run by Stanton to tie. 
Or a steal by Lucas and a single by Stanton to generate 1 run. 

Which percentage has a better chance of happening.  What ever has a greater chance of happening should be the approach. Because the future as we all know is a Unsolved variable. Take the cake idiots. 

Stanton struck out. 

 And who knows with two outs a successful steal they just may walk Stanton to get to a weaker hitter.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 31214
Posted: #6
Down by 1 you steal. Down by 2, there is no reason to with your best hitter who happens to be a power hitter.

What happens if you steal and are thrown out then Stanton leads off with a solo blast and you lose 2-1 as a result of stealing?
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 34721
Posted: #7
it would be the right call if the Miami also bet Miami +1.5, but with Stanton up you have to hope for an HR.  You don't take the bat out of his hand.  No way bro, no way.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 39
Posted: #8
when one of your best hitters is up, I say give him a chance to hit
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 31214
Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Louis_IV:

it would be the right call if Miami also bet Miami +1.5, but with Stanton up you have to hope for an HR.  You don't take the bat out of his hand.  No way bro, no way.




 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 31214
Posted: #10
I wonder how many times Pete Rose had the Reds +1.5 and if the Reds lost by 1 he would be the only one in the clubhouse smiling
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 5598
Posted: #11
Dont ya love a guy (TML) saying a major league manager used bad strategy because he had a +1.5 bet?
This is the ultimate "dont steal" scenario yet this clown is saying its not

Some of the guys in this site are just complete idiots its amazing
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 5598
Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by TML:

The odds of stanton to hit a home run are minuscule first off. Even though the kid has pop. 

Dude gotta go. Only two hits all game. Change the approach.  You have the bottom ninth too ....if the steal and Stanton to get  a base hit are successful (but more importantly a higher percentage for accomplishment.) So going for the jugglier is what you guys would do and to rely on a smaller percentage to generate runs is plain ridiculous. Living on edge managing. Never will get u back in a game. Your only leverage is your guy on base.   Put him in motion. They would not care for him. Stanton is who their total focus is on.  Then the opportunity to tie or take the lead becomes closer and that's the point. 

So ask your self this. Home run by Stanton to tie. 
Or a steal by Lucas and a single by Stanton to generate 1 run. 

Which percentage has a better chance of happening.  What ever has a greater chance of happening should be the approach. Because the future as we all know is a Unsolved variable. Take the cake idiots. 

Stanton struck out. 

 And who knows with two outs a successful steal they just may walk Stanton to get to a weaker hitter.

 

 

You would make an awful mlb manager, and you already make a really bad poster.

Dude couldnt just say "man i had the +1.5 I wish theyd have tried to steal there" but NO, he's actually trying to convince the whole world that knows its not a steal situation that it is because of one reason . . .

 

So he can blame someone else for his loss other than himself!!!!!!

 

 

 

Thats how it works here at Covers, its always the managers, players, or umps fault we lose games

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 733
Posted: #13
I blame that whole team for not generating 1 run. They had two hit's the whole game and you guys would sell your approach on a home run. And yes i lost my bet but You guys don't see your limiting Stantons approach. If Stanton were to single ....you get nothing and still two outs with less quality hitters to follow. Extremely less qualified.  If Lucas steal is successful...Stanton gets a single.  Your closer to the cause. 

If you noticed Stanton was swinging for the fences... struck out. He'd be more effective if the point was just to drive in that run on second.  

I understand what you guys are saying. But most of you still haven't noticed that Miami only had two hits. Manager needs to send him period.  Manufacturing something is better than nothing. 

Plus I would rather have Stanton lead off the bottom ninth than not to have him at all. 

Again I don't care what the norm is. I care for what gets you closer to where u need to be. I'm not trying to convince anyone. Your approach is your approach but I like mine better. 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 5598
Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by TML:

I blame that whole team for not generating 1 run. They had two hit's the whole game and you guys would sell your approach on a home run. And yes i lost my bet but You guys don't see your limiting Stantons approach. If Stanton were to single ....you get nothing and still two outs with less quality hitters to follow. Extremely less qualified.  If Lucas steal is successful...Stanton gets a single.  Your closer to the cause. 

If you noticed Stanton was swinging for the fences... struck out. He'd be more effective if the point was just to drive in that run on second.  

I understand what you guys are saying. But most of you still haven't noticed that Miami only had two hits. Manager needs to send him period.  Manufacturing something is better than nothing. 

Plus I would rather have Stanton lead off the bottom ninth than not to have him at all. 

Again I don't care what the norm is. I care for what gets you closer to where u need to be. I'm not trying to convince anyone. Your approach is your approach but I like mine better. 

 

 

 

Well 30 out of 30 MLB managers would disagree with you and the only one that counted, Miami's manager (who knows 1000X more about baseball than you do) also disagreed. Youre really for some reason are not understanding that the Marlins are trying to tie the game, not cover your RL bet. Now you will counter with 1 run is a big step towards doing that but not at the risk of losing your chance to tie it as well. You seem to also have forgotten that all the "percentages and probabilities" are all calculated by teams management and such and they , along with every other mlb team, go with the "dont steal" route. Youre saying you know baseball better than all the people that work for every major league team out there, its ridiculous

But you keep sitting home telling yourself how right you are as you still are blaming anyone but yourself for your lost bet. You are showing one of the #1 "tells" of a losing sports bettor

 

 

 

 

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 733
Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by CalifDreamin:

 

 

You would make an awful mlb manager, and you already make a really bad poster.

Dude couldnt just say "man i had the +1.5 I wish theyd have tried to steal there" but NO, he's actually trying to convince the whole world that knows its not a steal situation that it is because of one reason . . .

 

So he can blame someone else for his loss other than himself!!!!!!

 

 

 

Thats how it works here at Covers, its always the managers, players, or umps fault we lose games


First off....go fack yourself.  

Ask yourself this. Hypothetically put yourself as the manager of the Indians.  

Lucas would have a higher chance to steal just because you think like the majority. A unexpected steal has a better chance than suspected. I rest my case. Go to school son.  You need some educating in probability. 
I'll take the loss...I'm not complaining I've had many. If you guys don't see it my way then thats okay. I still rule mine is better even though the majority doesn't. 

I watched the game and at that point manager in my humble opinion needed to try something different. 



My approach just makes more sense to me. The world is not who I'm trying convince. Could care less. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 733
Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by CalifDreamin:

 

 

 

Well 30 out of 30 MLB managers would disagree with you and the only one that counted, Miami's manager (who knows 1000X more about baseball than you do) also disagreed. Youre really for some reason are not understanding that the Marlins are trying to tie the game, not cover your RL bet. Now you will counter with 1 run is a big step towards doing that but not at the risk of losing your chance to tie it as well. You seem to also have forgotten that all the "percentages and probabilities" are all calculated by teams management and such and they , along with every other mlb team, go with the "dont steal" route. Youre saying you know baseball better than all the people that work for every major league team out there, its ridiculous

But you keep sitting home telling yourself how right you are as you still are blaming anyone but yourself for your lost bet. You are showing one of the #1 "tells" of a losing sports bettor

 

 

 

 


No man. I don't know baseball more than the world combined.  I'm saying with only two hits all game it's a scarce commodity. Therefore make them count. Single gets you closer to the cause. It's a argument valid for a team that needs some sorta of life in the game.  Sparks do start fires. 

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 5598
Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by TML:


First off....go fack yourself.  

Ask yourself this. Hypothetically put yourself as the manager of the Indians.  

Lucas would have a higher chance to steal just because you think like the majority. A unexpected steal has a better chance than suspected. I rest my case. Go to school son.  You need some educating in probability. 
I'll take the loss...I'm not complaining I've had many. If you guys don't see it my way then thats okay. I still rule mine is better even though the majority doesn't. 

I watched the game and at that point manager in my humble opinion needed to try something different. 



My approach just makes more sense to me. The world is not who I'm trying convince. Could care less. 

 

 

Youre disagreeing with the strategy of EVERY SINGLE MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM yet telling me to "go to school"

 

Only on Covers

 

 

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 5598
Posted: #18

Im done with this, youre just delusional and cant accept truth or blame

 

 

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 733
Posted: #19
Again every manager in the league could combine together and agree on a verdict. 

Make this note. It could still be wrong. 

When 100percent of the public jumps on GB -3 and then Seattle throws a Hail Mary to beat the spread. For how much it was right to side with GB... Seattle still gets the cover. 


 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 5265
Posted: #20
TML


Marlins would get the steal EASILY if they sent the player but Clev will FOCUS on getting the out with Stanton.

Let me ask you something. You would do the same thing if its Miguel Cabrera with a runner on first with two out. You will risk the out by stealing when you have the one of the best hitter in history at the plate??

Your approach is like not putting the basketball in the hand of Jordan if Bulls is down by 1 with 20 sec left in the game...
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 733
Posted: #21
Delusional no. Just different. Most likely would of lost my way as well.  Miami was hitting squat.. But to offend someone for having a different opinion...the delusion is you and your useless way of trying to gain appreciation from others. I stood my ground and made a point that I think is valid based on what transpired through out the game. 

Sometimes change is necessary. 

Delusional. You make me laugh. But this was fun. God bless and may you have many winners. 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 733
Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by ballerbooboo:

TML


Marlins would get the steal EASILY if they sent the player but Clev will FOCUS on getting the out with Stanton.

Let me ask you something. You would do the same thing if its Miguel Cabrera with a runner on first with two out. You will risk the out by stealing when you have the one of the best hitter in history at the plate??

Your approach is like not putting the basketball in the hand of Jordan if Bulls is down by 1 with 20 sec left in the game...

I agree with the bold. Thats my point 

My approach if you will.... gets you closer to the cause of tying the game. That's all. Stanton approaches the plate the same way. Hit preferably but walk is good too. Only difference is that a single most likely will score Lucas.   Thats it. 2-1 game runner on first.  Im saying that Stanton should focus on having a good at bat....not to say he wasn't.... but anytime a player is closer to home....Probability of scoring has increased period. 

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 31214
Posted: #23
TML let me ask you this, what if Lucas steals, is thrown out and Stanton homers n the top of the 9th and the Fish lose because of that steal?

The media would be all over the Fish manager as well as his own players for making such a bonehead decision with Stanton up.

Sh.it Stanton would probably be pissed.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 733
Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by LawsonJames:

TML let me ask you this, what if Lucas steals, is thrown out and Stanton homers n the top of the 9th and the Fish lose because of that steal?

The media would be all over the Fish manager as well as his own players for making such a bonehead decision with Stanton up.

Sh.it Stanton would probably be pissed.

Now that's the argument.

Of course Every time you send a runner the risk of being thrown out is present.
Outs being crucial is the reason why majority calls my approach silly. 
That's fine. But the point is the steal would be easier considering your opponents would pay less attention to him because everyone is thinking this was. You send the runner because if Stanton generates a single....his bat at least pays.  Steal would Be totally unexpected, not guaranteed but unexpected which favours my the cause to do so.  A bag closer to home is a higher chance to tie the game. Team only had 2 hits all game. So that's why I would send him and risk it. 
 
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2011
Posts: 846
Posted: #25
tml no one wants to argue with you and reinvent the wheel man
it's obvious baseball strategy 
watch some more games man
this scenario is not rare, and the home run hitter at the plate down two runs w/ a man on first occurs all the time
All Forums | MLB Betting Forum
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gambling
Betting Sites
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
810,221
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
21+
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Help Privacy Terms of Service Cookies Sitemap Forum
Covers is verified safe by:
Evalon Logo Logo GPWA Logo GDPR logo Logo GeoTrust logo Logo PCI DSS logo Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2026 Genius Sports. All Rights Reserved.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.