emotions and variance

G'day all,

Just thought I would post some thoughts on what I have noticed in recent weeks on the MLB threads in relation to betting on emotions and variance.

Let me preface this post by saying I am not a good handicapper, but I am a recreational bettor and baseball fanatic, so I bet within my means and have a bit of action most days.

It seems there are a few exceptional cappers on here who go about their business day in and day out and grind out profits. To those bettors I congratulate you and the time and effort you obviously put into your plays.

There is also a lot of bettors who bet on emotion and these are easy to spot. They post attention-grabbing thread names and are cloaked in negativity and a woe-is-me attitude. They start chase systems, look for massive parlays with the odds so far stacked against them they may as well be throwing it away, and think they are the only one to endure a losing streak.

I am sure there is not a person on here who has at some stage wondered where their next win is coming from. I'm sure we all have, from time to time, bet on emotions, throwing out all rational thought and self-restraint, often damaging our betting bank in the process. This can only end in a damaged psyche, broke, or both. Bookies know this, and target these masses knowing the inevitable transfer of wealth will take place eventually.

There are people on here who clearly have no understanding of variance. Whether you are a seasoned pro or a recreational bettor, variance will affect your betting. Before you get too happy with yourself on a winning streak know that there will be a run of outs just around the corner. If you can't handle a run of outs or some bad beats along the way, then sports betting is probably not for you. The best cappers I have noticed don't seem too fazed by their streaks. They understand that as long as they keep making positive expected plays they will come out ahead even after a run of outs, over a lifetime of bets. This could be fading the heavy consensus plays, fading an ace when he sees a good spot to do so, or taking an unwanted rookie against a more-fancied starter or team.

If you don't think variance affects you, you are incredibly naïve or have not been betting long enough and are enjoying short term positive variance.

I welcome the opinions and feedback of all of you. How do you deal with variance? How do you control your emotions?

I don't want this thread to become filled with vitriol or name-calling. If anything hopefully you can identify what type of bettor you are and possibly learn some techniques to better control emotions or recognise how to steel your mindset to beat the bookies in the future.

Cheers

BF

no emotions - no favorite team - keep grinding away, if you lose one day, move on to the next - that's how you stay sane imo.

clem1  agreed. I have 2 clowns, one is a Bills fan and the other a Bears fan, both guys make plays on their teams every week, so you have to adjust the spread to your / our advantage. Sometimes I'll add 10 points to the line when they ask, just to get a reaction out of them. They never consider the other side, even with an inflated b.s. line.

G'day

Cheers for the feedback guys - very interesting thoughts. It confirms what I suspected - that most people can't help but back their favourite teams regardless of the spot, that most people have some emotion attached to their betting and that books will indeed provide a few trap games on every card.

I guess for me the thing that changed is that I realised that if you are serious about making money from sports betting (and with my job and bet sizes I have neither the time nor inclination to be too serious) you need to think like a bookie. Consider going against the public. Consider going against the public teams. Always consider the value of an underdog, as many teams play many games lacking confidence, motivation, or are fatigued or banged-up. These players are human, not machines who are devoid of form slumps or poor outings or being mentally drained.

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

Best of luck to all.

Cheers

BF