Falcon Sports (Power Totals Chase)

@Pablo989

 Thanks

But I'm either all in or not and Top 25 teams do not play equal competition. They all play cupcakes and this skews or screws my data.

Big decision for me

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 Pros vs Kids. I generally play the pros. Many variables that can throw a money wrench into both, but overall, pros give you a better chance at long term success if your model or betting theory is sound. 

@cosmo79

 Thanks 

Its really just the fact that there are just so many more teams in college sports and they do not play equal competition.

Example, when Georgia plays UT Martin in football. All data from that game is basically useless.

Those 2 reasons are why I'm thinking of dropping college sports.

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

One of the reasons I love college sports is b/c it IS more challenging for me.  There's constantly new players, rebuilding years when many players go pro, big moves (N to S, W to E,  new coaches, etc.) I tend to stay within a few leagues/conferences.  It's impossible to do them all.  I'm no pro handicapper.  This is a hobby of mine.  Nothing more- nothing less.  I tell people often, the only reason I post on Covers is to help me keep my record. (And I have friends here). I'm very old school.  I use a notebook and pen.  I only record the actual win amount- I don't include what I risk.  I do this b/c when I go to the Casinos in MS or elsewhere, I separate my money.  I use X amount for slots, cards, etc. and the other X amount for sports bets.  Everytime I win, I pocket my spending money first, and play off house money.  That way, I never lose money.  The only time I lose money, is if I had too many drinks and not enough food. LOL   It's become a money management habit and why my record seems wonky to people on Covers.  So, now you know a little more about me.  Ha!  Oh yeah, forgot to mention, I rarely do totals except in MLB.  No idea why TBH.  Won a hoodie by pretty much doing MLB totals only a few seasons ago, and seem to do better at them than any other sport.  LOL  I'm doing a lot more sides now. 

As far as college sports for you and what you do with it??  I can't really say, b/c I don't know your models.  I would assume they have to be a bit different by sport.  I have noticed you are better at Pro sports for sure.  Maybe something needs tweaking in College?  I have no idea.  I enjoy what you're doing, however!  And Roll Tide!  I need to look at CFB soon... lol

BTW, I know you weren't asking for my advice, and it was a question you probally proposed 'aloud', but that's my take FWIW. 

@MITM

Homecoming type games and crap you gotta just throw out IMO.  They do those as easy winners for the home teams before the holidays, and they are more of an exhibition game.  Same as as crap schedules.  This is sort of what I was saying above in my previous post.  I don't think mathematically you can get the proper data on those type games.  Stick to a conference in CFB.  Say SEC, top 25 - but ONLY one conf vs. conf plays.  I.,e. Bama vs. LSU, Oregon vs. Oregon St., etc.

@TDHCentral

 Thanks

Decision for a later time. I'm in no rush.

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 Agree. Throw in the portal, conference realignment and coaching merry go round.

@cosmo79

 Turnover of players much greater. Fewer games played.

Decision for a later time. Not tonight 

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 I actually respectfully disagree with a post saying focus on top 25.  I’ve heard that Sunday night football, people are chasing the parlay finish or chasing lost money.  When Patrick maholmes laid down at the 1 to kill the clock the vp at a casino said the place and t nuts.  Everyone was pissed. It ruined the over.  I think the games most bet on have the shadier lines.  That’s just imo.  I think smaller schools or lesser bet games probably have lines easier to beat.  Idk that, I’ve played what I’ve played and Alabama vs lsu I think is trickier for me then smaller schools but I am not the capper falcon is.  I just hope he stays on here, any sport, and I get that now that college basketball is on— that’s too much.  Unless you spend 5–10 hours a day to cap 4 sports and 50-100 college football and basketball games on Saturdays— obviously no 1 wants to do that but he wants winners just like we do.   I’d do whatever makes u happy my guy. And whatever u cap, I’ll follow.  Just imo about the biggest games have the most money and sometimes strange endings etc.   But I’m with u either way.  

@vp20

 Thanks

I'm referring to a model. I never handicap or watch games. Its all a Mathematical Formula.

Falcon Sports 

@vp20

 As a handicapper, I agree with you!  I focus on lines that are off in other (all) conferences, etc. to find line mistakes (CFB).  That's actually were I start when diving into the stats.  Lines that seem off.  I should have made that clear.  I was speaking to his math models, b/c those numbers are derived from math only.  When I spoke of CBB, I only stick with certain conferences I know more about.  No way I'm capping 200+ games.

@TDHCentral

 Oh I getcha TDH I understood.  I haven’t caught up with Damon in years but I follow the threads.  Flagon rocks and u seem lrty cool too, I’m glad u have followed him before I did and have made more bank ; ).  

looking forward to Tom.  I played a few of his and a few of mine and if the kings win tonight it’s a win and if not— ugh.  I try not to stress this stuff tooooo much.  Haha.  Good night talk to u guys soon.  I’ll be taking my daughter camping for her first trip (she’s 5) so if I “play too much on here” her mom will yell at me lol.  But I’ll be playing some this wknd…..    

so many games and I got to show her how to gosh as much as scrolling through 100 games in 4 sports.  But I’ll still play— and as a big unc fan— I’m def kicking into unc duke.  Speaking of which— Falcon— if u think unc wins ML or by the spread I’ll bet it— other wise nah.  I feel like I’d hex my team same as panthers football tonight.  Sorry to everyone who bet the ober that was my fault for caring. : ) 

Yesterday was not good. I'm not really talking about the losses. I felt side tracked and confused. First time in a month that has happened.

Let me say this.

Let's keep this thread about The Chase. I got it off topic yesterday. 

I want to focus on just The Chase in this thread.

Today, ill be putting all my plsys in the NBA forum. We can discuss things there or u can PM me anytime 

But I want to stay on topic here. 

Thanks guys

Back soon with the next Chase play.

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports (Power Totals Chase)

16-0 (+$800)

Friday November 10

Chase 17

C) Sacramento Over 224.5

Wagered at Draftkings at (5:50) am cst

Best play my model has on Friday, so I must go with it.

Any other plays I have today will be in the nba forum. U can check there or PM me. 

Good luck guys

Falcon Sports 

Draftkings stayed at 224.5 for about 15 minutes after I wagered. They have now moved to 225.5.  I watched this play out. 

Falcon Sports 

@mitm FD already at 226.5 , since your line is 224.5 the line is only playable to that number based on your model correct?

@REXRW

 Just one time, ill post this. U can PM me if u want my Power Total.

My model has this at 231.5

So for me it's a play up to 226.5 as I use a (5pt) difference for a play.

I don't want to post my number here but ill give it to u privately.

Falcon Sports 

@MITM thank you sir!

@MITM

 Friend request sent so I can PM you once you accept. Thank you in advance. 

@REXRW

 I already did.

I love having friends, especially as I get older. Thats what life's all about.

U can PM me anytime.

Falcon Sports 

U guys drop in on my thread in the nba forum.

Thats where all my Power Totals are located. 

There will be only one Chase play today but I have other plays for smaller amounts going today.

Good luck guys

Falcon Sports 

*edit* 

@MITM

 Now it’s 229 ????

@Dental

 Yep

They didn't set the best Mathematical Total 

It should be 231.5, that's why I bet it Over 224.5 this morning.

I'll bet we could make a fortune against their openers.

What u have here is a good bet at Over 224.5 but it does not mean its a winning bet. I want that perfectly clear. I assume nothing in this business.

Falcon Sports 

@MITM

 Bummer it’s up to 229 at my book

buy down to 227 is -150

whats your second best play today? ??

thank you in advance