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Fantastic Friday Picks 06/06 (Lanny is now banned from 58 casinos, 103 sportsbooks and this one pub)

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Posted: #126
yo lanny i am on the mets can u give me something...u must know somethni i dont???
 
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Posted: #127
Quote Originally Posted by MastaMinda7:

do u have a good reason for going against the mets?????


I flipped a quarter. Best of three and the Padres side (heads) came up the first two times.

No really, Randy Wolf is lights out at home this year with an XERA of 2.63. Johan is good on the road w/ an XERA of 3.47 but Wolf is better in this spot, believe it or not. Obviously the Mets have a better offense but there's not too much difference. Johan's name alone is getting way too many cents on this line and that's basically why I'm playing.
 
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Posted: #128
  i'm with you on most.  hopefully it'll be a great friday night to kick off the weekend!  good UFC card tomorrow for anyone who bets MMA.
 
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Posted: #129
Thanks for all the work Lanny. I am doing an experiment with your picks. I will give it some time and let you know what I have going on.
 
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Posted: #130
hey lan i have a question....i have a 2 teamer pending with az and mets....i see that you were on the pads and wandering how well you liked them b/c i can still take the pads and i will be able to not lose anything on the parlay if i take the pads....just curious how well you liked them...thanks
 
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Posted: #131
Quote Originally Posted by pokerpowder:

hey lan i have a question....i have a 2 teamer pending with az and mets....i see that you were on the pads and wandering how well you liked them b/c i can still take the pads and i will be able to not lose anything on the parlay if i take the pads....just curious how well you liked them...thanks


I usually like most of my plays the same, but I can tell you this isn't one of my strongest plays, hence the 1 unit wager. I see an edge, but it's not a huge one.
 
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Posted: #132
ok thanx i will stick with mets and under bol
 
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Posted: #133
You don't mess with the Johan in this spot
 
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Posted: #134
We shall see denali 
 
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Posted: #135
lan
 
really enjoy following your plays - i hope your great season continues
 
are you sure varying the bet sizes is a good idea??  have i been noticing a trend that your bigger unit plays are not winning at the same percentage as your smaller unti plays?? 
 
just wondering...
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #136
Quote Originally Posted by LongTermProfits:

lan
 
really enjoy following your plays - i hope your great season continues
 
are you sure varying the bet sizes is a good idea??  have i been noticing a trend that your bigger unit plays are not winning at the same percentage as your smaller unti plays?? 
 
just wondering...
 
 
 
 
 
 


I have only had 2 true 4 unit plays. I won the one yesterday and lost the one today. Obviously I would have preferred to win both times but I am not a 100% capper.

As for the risking favs to win 2 units, I cleaned house using this method yesterday and netted a good amount of extra units because of it. Obviously today was not as good but what am I supposed to do about the Blue Jays putting in Armando Belitez and blowing a 4-0 lead? What am I supposed to do with Kyle Davies pitching like Josh Beckett at Yankee Stadium? Even so, both of these games only lost by 1 run.

Sometimes we tend to get too wrapped up in instant gratification: "You didn't win today so what's wrong?"

Like I have told many people before, I don't bet to win in a specific day or week, I bet to win long term. And I have verified my current methods of betting as being most profitable. Give it a couple of weeks and then I will be happy to discuss this again.
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #137
Dear lan,

Please don't bet the Phillies again because you're single-handedly killing my bank account.

Thanks,

The Management


....good luck on the plays still going
 
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Posted: #138
Well said lana!  Like the saying goes, "You win some and you lose some"  True, we got jacked by Armando Belitez....unbelievable but heh, I remember a 2 run walk off the other night for a CWS win.  Boy was that ever so sweet. 

Betting is sort of like playing sports.  You have to learn how to lose w/ out being so negative about it.  You can't win everything! 100% = not gonna happen.  But like lana said, "I bet to win long term"  That is exactly what I intend to do. 

So hang in there fellas, we will get'em back tomorrow.  Books win tonight, lana & crew win tomorrow!
 
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Posted: #139
Lan I have been following you for a while and I love your insight on the game. I m a huge sports fan and usually stick to college football.  At the same time, this year you have given me a reason to follow baseball from a non-fantasy or fan stand point.  Thanks for posting and one bad day doesnt mean a life time.  You are very good at what you do.  Keep it up bro.  and thanks again
 
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Posted: #140

Quote Originally Posted by lanastasis:



I have only had 2 true 4 unit plays. I won the one yesterday and lost the one today. Obviously I would have preferred to win both times but I am not a 100% capper.

As for the risking favs to win 2 units, I cleaned house using this method yesterday and netted a good amount of extra units because of it. Obviously today was not as good but what am I supposed to do about the Blue Jays putting in Armando Belitez and blowing a 4-0 lead? What am I supposed to do with Kyle Davies pitching like Josh Beckett at Yankee Stadium? Even so, both of these games only lost by 1 run.

Sometimes we tend to get too wrapped up in instant gratification: "You didn't win today so what's wrong?"

Like I have told many people before, I don't bet to win in a specific day or week, I bet to win long term. And I have verified my current methods of betting as being most profitable. Give it a couple of weeks and then I will be happy to discuss this again.

 

Very well said. I have tried to say the same thing in different threads but people get so hung up on a few games that end like the Toronto or Yankee games tonight. Long term, baseball is predictable and profitable. Thanks Lanny..

 
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Posted: #141
Does the Yankee 4.6 unit play count as a "4 unit special" or does it have to be exactly 4 units?
 
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Posted: #142
lan
 
meant no disrespect by my comments - it seemed like you were a little offended by them - i apologize if i offended you
 
i check your picks everyday and love your threads - my comments were meant as a positive reinforcement on your capping abilities - i juat was wondering if you have done long term research on your bigger plays, compared to your smaller plays,  that's all
 
again, i apologize if my comments upset you
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #143
How many games?????
Your get scolded on the long haul!!!
Everbody eventually does with this amount & it hasn't been proven otherwise matey.
 
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Posted: #144
nccashman
 
 
varying bet sizes is usually not profitable
 
i think if you did some research or talked to long term winners (10+ years or more) they will tell you the same thing
 
especially varying by 1-4 units
 
maybe 1 to 1.5 or 2 units will work out long term, but not 1-4
 
just trying to add insight, that's all
 
love Lan's threads and his plays...
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #145
lan, you don't have to explain your method to anyone . you seem to know what you are doing and have been very successful .  people will either love ya or hate ya depended on if they win or lose . so keep doing your thing and let the bad apples fall from the tree,

to ya
 
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by LongTermProfits:

nccashman
 
 
varying bet sizes is usually not profitable
 
i think if you did some research or talked to long term winners (10+ years or more) they will tell you the same thing
 
especially varying by 1-4 units
 
maybe 1 to 1.5 or 2 units will work out long term, but not 1-4
 
just trying to add insight, that's all
 
love Lan's threads and his plays...
 
 
 
 

I have seen your arguments with vanzack and others so please don't take this the wrong way, I don't have time to argue with you. I didn't say anything about varying unit size first off. And I have heard convincing arguments for both sides of this issue. I do not flat bet as described by vanzack but I do try to wager between .5 and 2 units for most of my bets. I do pick certain spots to wager well over 2 units and I hit those at an extraordinarily high rate. Money management is the most important part of sports wagering. If you don't do it, you will be done in just a few weeks if not sooner. Thanks for your time and good night.

 
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Posted: #147
i don't remember ever arguing with vanzack, other than the time he said that the college footbal regular season was completely useless, so you are way off with that comment
 
if you have time to post about me, you better well have time to back it up, and you responded to lan's comment about my post, so obviously you do have time
 
u just said you don't flat bet like lan, which was the whole point of my post, so I am not really sure wherte you are coming from on this topic...very odd...
 
 
 
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Posted: #148
why don't you post your "big bet 2 unit specials" in the forum, so we can all tail them, since you hit them "at such an extrordinarily high rate" ???
 
why don't u share your tremendous insight with the  forum, so we can all get rich of your "big 2 unit" plays?
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #149
I believe it is still a positive day. Good job.
 
 
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Posted: #150
LTP, i think he's referring to the thread where you gave me & covers a formula to put in Excel so we could mathematically get everything balanced and use flat betting. I have been using it ever since and really appreciate it.
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