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Fantastic Friday Picks 06/06 (Lanny is now banned from 58 casinos, 103 sportsbooks and this one pub)

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Posted: #151
great day Lanny,
 
thanks once again for another profitable day. 
 
looking forward to tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

LTP, i think he's referring to the thread where you gave me & covers a formula to put in Excel so we could mathematically get everything balanced and use flat betting. I have been using it ever since and really appreciate it.

 

Thank you G

 
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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by LongTermProfits:

why don't you post your "big bet 2 unit specials" in the forum, so we can all tail them, since you hit them "at such an extrordinarily high rate" ???
 
why don't u share your tremendous insight with the  forum, so we can all get rich of your "big 2 unit" plays?
 
 
 
 

I never said that I had tremendous insight and I never said anything about big 2 unit plays. Just as I suspected you are very angry and you like to troll through this forum looking for a fight. And oh by the way, Lanny does NOT flat bet. He said it would not have been beneficial for him to do so. So get your facts straight before you spew shit out of your mouth next time.

 
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Posted: #154
Hey guys,

Sorry I missed your little mini debate or I would have chimed in.

Longetermprofits -- No love lost, my friend. I was just a little pissed with how the games had been going when I read your post and I think I let that seep into my reply. I didn't mean to come off that way. You had an honest question that I respect. Like I said, today was a bad day mainly because of three disastrous scenarios, all of which could have went the other way and made for a monster day:

1) Kyle Davies throwing a Cy Young performance against the Yankees. Never in my worst nightmares did I see the Yankees scoring less than 2 runs in this spot. I think Davies has added a cutter and really worked on his stuff in the offseason because this is not the pitcher who accumulated a +6 XERA in his career before this season. I will have to monitor him carefully for future plays.

2) Another moose from the Blue Jays. To remedy a sporadic bullpen, these guys add Armando Benitez? You can't even make this stuff up. Benitez and guys like Jorge Julio should not be allowed within 2000 miles of a MLB baseball stadium.

3) Brewers moose. 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th for the Rocks? Good God, just pile on the pathetic performances all in one night, I guess. I had this game in the bag. If the Brew Crew holds on, I have a winning day.
 
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Posted: #155
Quote Originally Posted by GWarner27:

Dear lan,

Please don't bet the Phillies again because you're single-handedly killing my bank account.

Thanks,

The Management


....good luck on the plays still going


Sorry man.

Can you hedge that bet at all?

Seriously though, sorry.
 
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Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by Teabaggins:

Lan I have been following you for a while and I love your insight on the game. I m a huge sports fan and usually stick to college football.  At the same time, this year you have given me a reason to follow baseball from a non-fantasy or fan stand point.  Thanks for posting and one bad day doesnt mean a life time.  You are very good at what you do.  Keep it up bro.  and thanks again


Thanks for the kind words. Hope to see you around these parts the rest of the season.
 
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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by jcpsaints:

How many games?????
Your get scolded on the long haul!!!
Everbody eventually does with this amount & it hasn't been proven otherwise matey.


Thanks for the input, but I will continue to reiterate: Every play I make is made because of significant spotted value. This being said, I am still looking at some things. By the end of the season I expect any 1 unit plays to either be canceled or become 2 unit plays thus making the discrepancy between the unit sizes smaller.

As for the 4 unit plays, I need to explain the reasoning behind this because I don't think it's clear:

I have two criteria under which I play plays. Both of these criteria make for very profitable plays when I spot value. Sometimes, rarely, a play qualifies as a bet under both criteria. These plays are more profitable than plays that fall under just one of the two. More importantly, I track plays under both criteria and when I see both suggest there is value, I make a 4 unit play, which is essentially sticking to the basic plan and making a play for each criteria. It seems like a play that I like twice as much as the others but it is not quite like this.
 
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Posted: #158

8-6
 -0.64 UNITS

* NY Yankees             -4.6 UNITS

* Arizona                    +1 UNITS

* Cleveland               +2.96 UNITS

* Boston                      -4 UNITS 

* Toronto                   -3.44 UNITS

* Florida                     -1.24 UNITS

* San Fran                 +1 UNITS

* Philly                     +2.66 UNITS

* St. Louis               -1 UNIT

* Tampa Bay            +2 UNITS

* Chicago Sox          +2 UNITS

* Milwaukee -136   -1.36 UNITS

* LA Angels -110     +2 UNITS

* San Diego +138    +1.38 UNITS
 
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Posted: #159
             NET UNITS: +54.28             
                               
                      WIN-LOSS ML: 175-138
                     ML NET UNITS:  +49.2
                      WIN-LOSS RL: 42-36
            RL NET UNITS: +28.44
             WIN-LOSS O/U: 18-31
               O/U NET UNITS: -23.36
 
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Posted: #160
over 2400 games in a baseball season...that's about ten times the amount of games in the nfl season...so if a person played 4 games per weekend in the nfl that would translate to about 40 per week in mlb...i don't understand why people get so irritated about playing several baseball games in one week yet no one seems to be disturbed by playing the thursday game, a couple sunday games and of course the monday night game in the nfl...
 
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Posted: #161
WOW  THAT WAS A LOT OF GAMES!!!!   TOMORROW
 
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Posted: #162

i am not "spewing shit" as you describe - had a simple question about varying bet sizes so drastically, that's all

Quote Originally Posted by nccashman:

I do pick certain spots to wager well over 2 units and I hit those at an extraordinarily high rate. good night.

did you not type that?  if so, what is the extraordinarily high rate at which these 2 unit specials hit?  i would love to know the facts behind the fiction..

 

 

 
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Posted: #163
Lan
 
rough night on those 3 plays you described - tough breaks on them
 
hope you have a huge weekend
 
good luck with the plays, love following them and betting some of them
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #164
Quote Originally Posted by LongTermProfits:

 get rich of your "big 2 unit" plays?
 I am not interested in getting rich and by no means am I interested in hearing people like you criticize what I do. And once again, I never said anything about "big 2 unit plays". I stated that I wager between .5 and 2 units on a regular basis and that at times, I do wager much higher than 2 units. Notice nothing in there about a "big 2 unit play". And the shit that you did indeed spew was that you mistakenly stated that Lanny flat bets like you and vanzack. This is NOT true. Lanny has done the back research and has found that he would NOT have done as well if he was flat betting as you and vanzack describe. You my friend have an agenda. You want everyone to flat bet b/c you think it is the only successful way to wager on sports. Well, I am sorry to tell you this but the FACT is that is just NOT true. Have a great weekend and life for that matter.
 
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Posted: #165
good job
 
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Posted: #166
still dodging the question, as i knew you would
 
how many units do you put on the "big plays" that are "well above 2 unit plays"?  what percentage do you hit them at?
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #167
not dodging at all...you never asked a legimate question...the amounts vary and I would be lying if I told you a hit percentage. But I can tell you that I get a payout from at least one of my books every month. I do not make a living doing this but it is a very nice money making hobby. Other than money management, I have found that it is very important to make your own picks. I have met nothing but disaster in trying to follow an individuals picks. For example yesterday Lanny posted the Fish pick right at the cutoff time. Many followers I am sure, did not get that pick in. The Fish did not win but they may have and that would have been lost units. There are many other reasons why I don't think tailing is profitable in the long run but I won't go into that in this thread. Have a great day.
 
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Posted: #168

legitimate ** (sorry about the misspelling)

 
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Posted: #169
Quote Originally Posted by nccashman:

not dodging at all...you never asked a legimate question...the amounts vary and I would be lying if I told you a hit percentage. But I can tell you that I get a payout from at least one of my books every month. I do not make a living doing this but it is a very nice money making hobby. Other than money management, I have found that it is very important to make your own picks. I have met nothing but disaster in trying to follow an individuals picks. For example yesterday Lanny posted the Fish pick right at the cutoff time. Many followers I am sure, did not get that pick in. The Fish did not win but they may have and that would have been lost units. There are many other reasons why I don't think tailing is profitable in the long run but I won't go into that in this thread. Have a great day.

I understand your point about tailing but if you disregard the units that Lanny plays and play units that you're comfortable with... his picks have been extremely profitable for me.  I don't bet 4 units on on one game and one unit on another because I've been burned too many times that way.  For Lanny it's successful for me I'm just not comfortable with it.  But his picks are still aces.   

For example yesterday:  I simply wasn't comfortable playing 4 units on the Yankees and the Redsox.  So I played one unit on both and the Yanks I even took at -1.5 to lessen the blow on the juice.  

I bet on every game except FLA because I couldn't get it in time.

I came up plus 2.16 units yesterday, I would've still been profitable even if I took FLA.  +.65 units.

I think if you adjust Lanny's picks to units your comfortable with you'll win money very week, no question.

I know I wouldn't be this succesful on bases with my own picks.  So I appreciate the ability to make a profit during a season I've never bet on before.   

 
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Posted: #170
Jchoo I understand what you are saying but please understand that when I say I have met disaster when trying to tail someone else's picks, that is NOT a bash on Lanny or any other capper on this forum. But let me ask you a question, what happens when you have to be away from the computer between 630 and 10 and you can't get Lanny's picks in? And let's go further in this example and say that Lanny had his best day of the month on that day that you missed. And let's say it was his only winning day that week. WOW! You must be saying 'hell that's not gonna happen'. I am telling you it will happen sooner or later and your bankroll will be proof of that. I have tailed some of Lanny's picks as well but there is no way that anyone can tail all of his picks all of the time. The key word is ALL. You will miss some picks, some days and the way gambling fate usually works, you will miss out on the winners more times than the losers. So I again say that if one must gamble, then I highly recommend that one makes their own picks for the best long term profit (this is not a reference to a fellow poster on this thread.)
 
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Posted: #171
"the amounts vary and I would be lying if I told you a hit percentage" 
 
so you don't know the percentage of the "well over 2 unit plays", but you know that they hit at an "extraodinarily high rate"
 
so how do you know they hit at a high rate?
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by nccashman:

Jchoo I understand what you are saying but please understand that when I say I have met disaster when trying to tail someone else's picks, that is NOT a bash on Lanny or any other capper on this forum. But let me ask you a question, what happens when you have to be away from the computer between 630 and 10 and you can't get Lanny's picks in? And let's go further in this example and say that Lanny had his best day of the month on that day that you missed. And let's say it was his only winning day that week. WOW! You must be saying 'hell that's not gonna happen'. I am telling you it will happen sooner or later and your bankroll will be proof of that. I have tailed some of Lanny's picks as well but there is no way that anyone can tail all of his picks all of the time. The key word is ALL. You will miss some picks, some days and the way gambling fate usually works, you will miss out on the winners more times than the losers. So I again say that if one must gamble, then I highly recommend that one makes their own picks for the best long term profit (this is not a reference to a fellow poster on this thread.)

I here you 100%.  I get nervous when I miss one of his picks because i'm worried it may throw everything off.  And I didn't take what you were saying as a bash on Lanny at all.

I appreciate the heads up and it's something I do worry about.  I know what you're saying about the time an everything.  It can present a potential problem. 

Thanks for the heads up.

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