FIRST 5 INNING THREAD TUESDAY 6/14/11

*BOL* today, BC & Key! 

 GiL

Fresh off the Bass pick, will take:

Norris over Karstens (despite Karstens form)

Kershaw over Cueto.

Think tonites the night for Clayton.

YTD: 13-25, -1,134.94 units, average return on risk, -29.1% (I suck, No excuses)

All plays are 5 Innings

Mets +138 Niese / Jurrjens

Yeah, I know, Jurrjens is a Cy Young contender with 11 straight quality starts, but you don’t win if you don’t outscore the other team and his offense faces a guy that is flying under the radar.  The Braves are not by any means lefty killers and the Mets, mutts or meatheads, whatever you want to call them have been producing at the plate lately.  So if Mr. Niese can continue his 2.92:1 GB/FB ratio and 2.17:1 K/BB ratio this could be a very slim affair. 78% of the public likes Jurrjens and the Braves, but the line has gone down. Cool, huh?

Royals +155 Duffy / Cahill

One nice thing about taking road teams that everyone hates out of general principle is that you get a very fair line, maybe even a bonus versus the true probability. Such is the case here. Cahill and his teammates managed to get their manager fired. That does not happen unless the team is performing poorly and probably should be asked to carry a -165 line that requires a 62.3% probability of a win to justify laying. Folks supporting this line probably don’t realize that the Royals (and Key) were 3 Unearned runs from a sweep of Angels in Anaheim.

BOL

All plays are a flat 100 units.

Lines are current at BetJamaica as I post

A hot pitcher at +138......nice

....and home aces tend to be overrated  (if jurrjens can be considered an ace..I think so)

Mets +138 Niese / Jurrjens