FIRST 5 INNING THREAD TUESDAY 6/14/11

GET EM UP

*BOL* today, BC & Key! 

 

 GiL

Fresh off the Bass pick, will take:

Norris over Karstens (despite Karstens form)

Kershaw over Cueto.

Think tonites the night for Clayton.

2 PLAYS:

PADRES +135

PIRATES -105

POD
GRAND SALAMI OVER 124 -110

ANOTHER EPIC BATTLE

And Key didnt like my Cleveland play,lol.

Congrats, hell of a game by Carrasco and the Yankees laid around like "why don't get today off?"

Took a push on Milwaukee, another team that took the night off. I might be serious about not playing on Monday anymore, because of games like those. Ballplayers are human too, and they don't like Mondays any more than the rest of the world. Do Russian and Chinese factories have an absentee problem on Mondays? I think it may be a world wide thing, like human nature or something. You know that's why we moved so many holidays to Monday observance, don't you? The slave drivers were for it because nobody was showing up anyway.

Good to see Glenn getting in the action but what's with bd_c, the worlds worst totals handicapper (according to him, not me) all of a sudden slapping his POD on the Grand Salami? A little success went straight to his head, huh? Didn't he ever hear of beginners luck? Besides that he ain't gonna like my pick but I'm gonna slap it up there anyway. Almost ready, just have a couple more nails to chew down to the knuckle. Could have waited to put all this BS uo here, but we needed a bump anyway.

WATCH AND LEARN MY FRIEND... A LITTLE DOUBT NEVER HURT AND ONLY MAKES IT SWEETER WHEN IT WINS

AND BESIDES YOUR NOT PUTTING UP A TOTAL... I AM ALMOST CERTAIN YOUR PLAYING THE RAYS TODAY.  THEY ARE THE ONLY TEAM IN THE MLB THAT CAN ACTUALLY HIT THE KNUCKLE BALL.  JUST WOULDN'T PLAY IT BECAUSE OF HOW HOT THE RED SOX ARE

YTD: 13-25, -1,134.94 units, average return on risk, -29.1% (I suck, No excuses)

All plays are 5 Innings

Mets +138 Niese / Jurrjens

Yeah, I know, Jurrjens is a Cy Young contender with 11 straight quality starts, but you don’t win if you don’t outscore the other team and his offense faces a guy that is flying under the radar.  The Braves are not by any means lefty killers and the Mets, mutts or meatheads, whatever you want to call them have been producing at the plate lately.  So if Mr. Niese can continue his 2.92:1 GB/FB ratio and 2.17:1 K/BB ratio this could be a very slim affair. 78% of the public likes Jurrjens and the Braves, but the line has gone down. Cool, huh?

Royals +155 Duffy / Cahill

One nice thing about taking road teams that everyone hates out of general principle is that you get a very fair line, maybe even a bonus versus the true probability. Such is the case here. Cahill and his teammates managed to get their manager fired. That does not happen unless the team is performing poorly and probably should be asked to carry a -165 line that requires a 62.3% probability of a win to justify laying. Folks supporting this line probably don’t realize that the Royals (and Key) were 3 Unearned runs from a sweep of Angels in Anaheim.

BOL

All plays are a flat 100 units.

Lines are current at BetJamaica as I post

A hot pitcher at +138......nice

....and home aces tend to be overrated  (if jurrjens can be considered an ace..I think so)

BTW, I am not playing the Rays for exactly that reason, Currently the Red Sox offensive era vs righty is a probable 9.5 per 9 and that is tough even for a guy like Shields to handle, fine year that he is having. This is the time for lesser pitchers like Wakefield to get a few wins, even with a high era. Over is tempting but we don't know the ump and bettors have kept it at 8.5 thanks to Shields. If he is the man to shut down the Red Sox and Wakefield gets a little lucky, it could stay under. 

Cahill could also be considered an ace, at least at the start of the year, but he is part of the nonperformance that got Geren fired.

Mets is a far stretch. Don't like the juice but don't like the mets either in this spot

If you don't like the juice, you already have your doubts.

BOL tonight Cover...........................

Is your Pirates line off?

THAT WAS THE LINE WHEN I PLACED THE WAGER 5 HOURS AGO... I SEE NOW YOU CAN GET +115... EVEN BETTER

Been out of sorts with a fucked up shoulder blade bad tendon, I think, so the capping has been lagging.

Taking the <5.5 @  $1.91 in Colorado tonight. L/R match up well against both teams and high winds bode well with the 3-6 under stat at Coors Field.

Going to look at the <4 in Arizona tonight, also. D-Backs traveling back home and Collmenter can shut down that Giant lineup. Waiting to see who the ump is, but probably still take anyway.

MIL 5  @  $1.71

Just enough juice to take.......

Two 9 inn dogs......


MIN  @  $2.18

SEA  @  $2.25

Mets +138 Niese / Jurrjens