F.S. (Power Totals)

@Rip100

 I'm a big believer in the luck factor evening out. 

Some good, some bad. 

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports Power Totals Model 

48-34 (+10.15 units)

58.54% Winners 

To win one unit on each 

Wednesday April 26

Toronto Over 9.5 (-110) MLB 

To win one unit 

There will be an evening card released this afternoon.

Check back if interested 

Falcon Sports 

The Falcon is releasing one night play right now. 

So this gives us two plays for Wednesday thus far.

Toronto Over 9.5 (-110) MLB 

Colorado Over 5.5 (-120) NHL 

To win one unit on each 

The remainder of the evening card will be released this afternoon. 

Check back if interested 

Falcon Sports 

Falcon

Thanks guys

I've got about 10 guys in this industry that I'm very close too. This is what I tell them that I'm trying to accomplish. It's very simple how I want this thread to play out. 

I want to prove, mostly to myself, that I've built a purely MATHEMATICAL betting model for sports totals, sports vary on specifics . That can meet these projections on a long-term monthly average. 

This is simple and if u follow this, here is what I expect year round. This will be a go in football as well as all sports. 

Monthly Projected AVERAGES for the Power Totals Model.

105 plays

57.14% Winners 

(-110) avg betting line

(+10.00 units) of profit

2.5% of bankroll on each 

Good luck if you follow, bad luck if u FADE (ha ha)

Back this afternoon.

Falcon Sports 

What a crappy performance by the White Sox. 

Current update

Falcon Sports Power Totals

48-35 (+9.05 units)

57.83% Winners 

To win one unit on each 

Wednesday night 

Angels Under 9.5 (-110)

Atlanta Under 8 (-110)

Colorado Over 5.5 (-120) NHL 

To win one unit on each 

Falcon Sports 

Interesting, so the model gives you a' projected' total, and for (example ) a two run differential from the posted line.....you pull the trigger?....

?? Thanks

@Rip100

 Something like that. But 2 runs would be extremely high. I doubt my models projection and the books projection would be that much. In fact the majority of the time, my number and the books number match exactly.

I'll tell u this. It's cut and dried in the NFL and NBA. 3pt difference in NFL. 5pts in the NBA to trigger a play but it's not uncommon for the NBA to get bigger. 

As for baseball and hockey, the difference is much smaller and a probability factor is included. 

Falcon Sports 

I try to keep my models very current. And by that I mean, when we get to August in the baseball season, what these teams did in April will be almost irrelevant. 

I'm a big believer in MATH winning out. The books have the best math that anyone could have but it's my belief that they do not always use it. I believe they use more of a perceived number. 

I believe they will post a number that will draw equal action on both the over and under and that number is not always the best mathematical number. This is the key. 

Math beats Perception. 

Falcon Sports

I try to keep my models very current. And by that I mean, when we get to August in the baseball season, what these teams did in April will be almost irrelevant. 

I'm a big believer in MATH winning out. The books have the best math that anyone could have but it's my belief that they do not always use it. I believe they use more of a perceived number. 

I believe they will post a number that will draw equal action on both the over and under and that number is not always the best mathematical number. This is the key. 

Math beats Perception. 

Falcon Sports

Just as an example.

The Colorado/Seattle NHL game tonight should be lined at 6. In fact it is now at most books but I got a (5.5) early today. My model thinks the probability factor is very high that at least six goals are scored tonight. 

But in saying this, I only project to be right every 4 times out of 7 bets (57.14%).

Good luck 

Falcon Sports 

Books have to account for public perception in setting lines....your right, a model based on straight math doesn't have to account for that

@Rip100

 Bingo

Falcon Sports 

Let me very clear on this. 

I am not saying that I can set a better math total than the books can set. No one can do that. 

I'm saying they don't always set the best math total. Possibly on purpose. My model likes to capitalize on this fact. 

I have so much involved in this,,,,,, both in time and money. 

This is it for me.... win or lose,,, this is it. 

If this works, I'll make a fortune this year and probably have many people working for me and with me. But if it fails, this will turn back into a nice little hobby for me. 

I have alot on the line here (for me). 

You can watch it play out, right here on Covers.

Falcon Sports 

Appreciate the time and money , ....invested, a 'calculated risk'  is much better than just gambling, which is a' guaranteed' loser

S

@Rip100

 Yep.

I don't believe in handicapping or guessing any longer.

Every once in a while, u have to push all in, say what the F and take your chances. 

Falcon Sports 

I've noticed. . When I get on here and post stuff, I seem to always lose. I'm not talking about the plays, I'm talking about my comments. 

So starting right now,,,, until May 1,,,,, I'll post the record and the plays and keep my mouth shut.

Good luck guys 

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports Sports Power Totals 

48-36 (+7.95 units)

57.14% Winners 

To win one unit on each 

Pending

Angels Under 9.5 (-110)

Colorado Over 5.5 (-120) NHL 

To win one unit on each 

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports Power Totals

48-38 (+5.65 units)

55.81% Winners 

To win one unit on each 

Thursday April 27

Pittsburgh Under 8 (-115)

Angels Under 8.5 (-110)

Mets Over 8 (-105)

To win one unit on each 

Good luck guys 

Falcon Sports 

Blame me for asking the questions, your right handicapping, waste of time, betting steam, against steam, moneyline moves tried everything, 50% maybe if Lucky ..spins your brain 

.

@Rip100

 I'm with you tried it all go off of someone line that u respect all the movement during the day is bs

Right side, wrong side doesn't matter,  books sit back and let the fools think they got it figured out, I'm from Ma ,where I live their pushing parlays, books have like. a 30,% hold on those...

.

Falcon Sports Power Totals

49-39 (+5.55 units) (+$2775)

To win one unit on each 

Friday

Miami Under 7.5 (-110)

Colorado Under 11 (-110)

Oakland Over 8.5 (-110)

To win one unit on each 

Falcon Sports 

Falcon Sports Power Totals 

52-39 (+8.55 units) (+$4275)

57.14% Winners 

To win one unit on each 

I've made a little money in April. Good for me. 

But seriously, check that win percentage. Exactly as projected. 

Falcon Sports