W Twinkies +135 (pinnacle) ....value bet in a coin-flipper! W Tiggers +138 (pinnacle) ....value bet in a coin-flipper! L Orioles -125 (pinnacle) W Brewskys game ov 7 -146 *BB L LIVE HEDGE BET: BoSox -130
= 3 - 2 +1.18u (1 - 0 *BB)
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Sunday, June 02:
W Twinkies +135 (pinnacle) ....value bet in a coin-flipper! W Tiggers +138 (pinnacle) ....value bet in a coin-flipper! L Orioles -125 (pinnacle) W Brewskys game ov 7 -146 *BB L LIVE HEDGE BET: BoSox -130
Hi, I won my 2 double downs today with the Twins and the Yankees. Also won with the Mariners. Lost with the Orioles.
So now I am at 56.63% of what I started with after almost getting knocked out a few times. I think I am done with Parlay betting now, just doing Straight Bets for 1 Unit. (22.65 Units remaining).
I have learned quite a bit from your posts. As always, Good luck with all your Picks.
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@fubah2
Hi, I won my 2 double downs today with the Twins and the Yankees. Also won with the Mariners. Lost with the Orioles.
So now I am at 56.63% of what I started with after almost getting knocked out a few times. I think I am done with Parlay betting now, just doing Straight Bets for 1 Unit. (22.65 Units remaining).
I have learned quite a bit from your posts. As always, Good luck with all your Picks.
@fubah2 Hi, I won my 2 double downs today with the Twins and the Yankees. Also won with the Mariners. Lost with the Orioles. So now I am at 56.63% of what I started with after almost getting knocked out a few times. I think I am done with Parlay betting now, just doing Straight Bets for 1 Unit. (22.65 Units remaining). I have learned quite a bit from your posts. As always, Good luck with all your Picks.
Hey, good work there!
Step by step you can get it all back if you are really patient.
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Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
@fubah2 Hi, I won my 2 double downs today with the Twins and the Yankees. Also won with the Mariners. Lost with the Orioles. So now I am at 56.63% of what I started with after almost getting knocked out a few times. I think I am done with Parlay betting now, just doing Straight Bets for 1 Unit. (22.65 Units remaining). I have learned quite a bit from your posts. As always, Good luck with all your Picks.
Hey, good work there!
Step by step you can get it all back if you are really patient.
From over 250+ bets, only 10 were posted PRE-GAME with juice OVER -200: 7 wins: -322 -270 -228 -222 -226 -213 -213 (+7.00u) 3 losers: -214 -210 -204 (-6.28u)
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Breakdown of my PRE-GAME posted bets:(pushes/props/LIVE bets not listed)
• FAVS up to -169, posted pre-game: 44 - 26 +10.33u • BIG FAVS -170+, posted pre-game: 16 - 9 - 0.80u
From over 250+ bets, only 10 were posted PRE-GAME with juice OVER -200: 7 wins: -322 -270 -228 -222 -226 -213 -213 (+7.00u) 3 losers: -214 -210 -204 (-6.28u)
Thanks for all the informative posts, fubah2. I've really gained a lot of insight into MLB betting from this thread and the picks have been a nice bonus. Just wanted to share my appreciation and Happy monday.
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Thanks for all the informative posts, fubah2. I've really gained a lot of insight into MLB betting from this thread and the picks have been a nice bonus. Just wanted to share my appreciation and Happy monday.
I use this term "value bets" to apply to games where I can't make a reasonably strong case one way or the other for either team to prevail, but one side is getting significant PLUS MONEY, on what I expect is essentially a 50/50 toss-up (ie, coin-flipper!)
Monday, I have already bet these coin-flippers:
St.Louis +158 (pinnacle)
The "value" makes sense, assuming I have the games capped well.
No guarantees of winning.....but I like the value here!
1
VALUE BETS?
I use this term "value bets" to apply to games where I can't make a reasonably strong case one way or the other for either team to prevail, but one side is getting significant PLUS MONEY, on what I expect is essentially a 50/50 toss-up (ie, coin-flipper!)
Monday, I have already bet these coin-flippers:
St.Louis +158 (pinnacle)
The "value" makes sense, assuming I have the games capped well.
No guarantees of winning.....but I like the value here!
@fubah2 I have the Cardinals as well, but only at +150. It might go higher, and I might bet it again. Go Cardinals I also have the Orioles -121, and Reds -128. Got them too soon as far as the lines go.
That's good, imo. In fact I would have played this "value" bet as low as +120 if that was what was offered (not lower) because I actually have the Cards not just even, but a very small edge overall.....so this one is along similar chances as the two "value" bets I posted yesterday with Twins and Tiggers (both won getting GOOD plus money)...... I can't guarantee this though! It could lose! But I give it about a 51% shot to win and nice PLUS MONEY ta boot!
The idea with these 50/50 coin-flipper "value" bets (with GOOD PLUS MONEY!) is to keep playing them over and over and over....should come out well ahead in profits over time even though the actual wins v. losses will be about 50/50
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Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
@fubah2 I have the Cardinals as well, but only at +150. It might go higher, and I might bet it again. Go Cardinals I also have the Orioles -121, and Reds -128. Got them too soon as far as the lines go.
That's good, imo. In fact I would have played this "value" bet as low as +120 if that was what was offered (not lower) because I actually have the Cards not just even, but a very small edge overall.....so this one is along similar chances as the two "value" bets I posted yesterday with Twins and Tiggers (both won getting GOOD plus money)...... I can't guarantee this though! It could lose! But I give it about a 51% shot to win and nice PLUS MONEY ta boot!
The idea with these 50/50 coin-flipper "value" bets (with GOOD PLUS MONEY!) is to keep playing them over and over and over....should come out well ahead in profits over time even though the actual wins v. losses will be about 50/50
As you can see in post #906 above, my record betting UNDERS, sucks!
I pay attention to my own results, so I quit betting them. My handicapping sheets still circles the potential UNDERS every day but I won't defy my own results......and sure enough, as documented here, my indicated UNDERS go on an impressive run of 19 - 9 as of Saturday since I QUIT betting them.
Today, so far, I've found a few that I am NOT betting and NOT recommending either, but for curiosity sake, this is what my capping sheets indicate....and yes wind conditions ARE taken into account....
Most involve taking an alt-totalafter rounding UP to the next highest integer....doing that is what resulted in the recent 19 - 9 run, although there are no guarantees this will continue:
Nationals game....suggest 7.0 net runs ....so under 8 ??
Astros game ....suggests 7.3 net runs ....so under 9 alt-line??
Rockies game ....suggests 9.6 net runs ....so under 11 alt-line??
Angels game ....suggests 7.5 net runs ....so under 9 alt-line??
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As you can see in post #906 above, my record betting UNDERS, sucks!
I pay attention to my own results, so I quit betting them. My handicapping sheets still circles the potential UNDERS every day but I won't defy my own results......and sure enough, as documented here, my indicated UNDERS go on an impressive run of 19 - 9 as of Saturday since I QUIT betting them.
Today, so far, I've found a few that I am NOT betting and NOT recommending either, but for curiosity sake, this is what my capping sheets indicate....and yes wind conditions ARE taken into account....
Most involve taking an alt-totalafter rounding UP to the next highest integer....doing that is what resulted in the recent 19 - 9 run, although there are no guarantees this will continue:
Nationals game....suggest 7.0 net runs ....so under 8 ??
Astros game ....suggests 7.3 net runs ....so under 9 alt-line??
Rockies game ....suggests 9.6 net runs ....so under 11 alt-line??
Angels game ....suggests 7.5 net runs ....so under 9 alt-line??
Todd Zola for ESPN Fantasy news is suggesting he believes SPENCER HOWARD will be the SP for GIANTS today (as bulk reliever) since a starter has still not yet been announced....Roto suggests same.
If so, I will be looking to bet ON the GIANTS if I can get a decent line, since the pitching would strongly favor the GIANTS facing a DBACK squad that does not bat well v. righties.
I am expecting both these teams to have an upswing in performance after the change in venue and home/road status, but GIANTS more likely to rebound from a series of losses....
1
Todd Zola for ESPN Fantasy news is suggesting he believes SPENCER HOWARD will be the SP for GIANTS today (as bulk reliever) since a starter has still not yet been announced....Roto suggests same.
If so, I will be looking to bet ON the GIANTS if I can get a decent line, since the pitching would strongly favor the GIANTS facing a DBACK squad that does not bat well v. righties.
I am expecting both these teams to have an upswing in performance after the change in venue and home/road status, but GIANTS more likely to rebound from a series of losses....
The top batting teams v. right-hand pitchers are: Brewskys Yankees Padres .... yes, the mediocre Padres! Dodgers Phillies Astros Rangers
The WORST batting teams v. right-hand pitchers are: WhiteSox Reds Angels Pirates Mariners Marlins
Zack Wheeler (Phillies) is a very good pitcher... but it's interesting to note (as I do when I cap all starting pitchers) the number of GOOD batting teams he has faced (good v. righties) and the number of weakass batting teams (v.righties)
Texas is the only GOOD one...but he's faced 6 weakass offenses v. righties IOW, his GOOD pitching stats are "somewhat padded" from a weak schedule...
But today he faces arguably the BEST team in MLB batting against righties!
(Note: I use OBP primarily but Brewskys are #2 in OPS and #2 in BA as well!)
I still have the Phillies circled with almost a half-run edge tonight, but if the line is over -135 I PASS!
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Phillies?
The top batting teams v. right-hand pitchers are: Brewskys Yankees Padres .... yes, the mediocre Padres! Dodgers Phillies Astros Rangers
The WORST batting teams v. right-hand pitchers are: WhiteSox Reds Angels Pirates Mariners Marlins
Zack Wheeler (Phillies) is a very good pitcher... but it's interesting to note (as I do when I cap all starting pitchers) the number of GOOD batting teams he has faced (good v. righties) and the number of weakass batting teams (v.righties)
Texas is the only GOOD one...but he's faced 6 weakass offenses v. righties IOW, his GOOD pitching stats are "somewhat padded" from a weak schedule...
But today he faces arguably the BEST team in MLB batting against righties!
(Note: I use OBP primarily but Brewskys are #2 in OPS and #2 in BA as well!)
I still have the Phillies circled with almost a half-run edge tonight, but if the line is over -135 I PASS!
I have the Cardinals as well, but only at +150. It might go higher, and I might bet it again.
Go Cardinals
I also have the Orioles -121, and Reds -128. Got them too soon as far as the lines go.
Fair enough! To me the CARDS are a coin-flip but I can't pass up that payoff if indeed they win the 50-50 ball!
Yes, I too see O's and Reds with small edges, I just wanna see better lines....
Hoping to see a starter confirmed for GIANTS and then hopefully a decent line to grab them *IF* HOWARD is indeed the SP....as Giants appear to have better bullpen support if needed than the DBACKS......And while neither team bats well against righties, DBACKS are worse than GIANTS....
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Quote Originally Posted by Premian:
I have the Cardinals as well, but only at +150. It might go higher, and I might bet it again.
Go Cardinals
I also have the Orioles -121, and Reds -128. Got them too soon as far as the lines go.
Fair enough! To me the CARDS are a coin-flip but I can't pass up that payoff if indeed they win the 50-50 ball!
Yes, I too see O's and Reds with small edges, I just wanna see better lines....
Hoping to see a starter confirmed for GIANTS and then hopefully a decent line to grab them *IF* HOWARD is indeed the SP....as Giants appear to have better bullpen support if needed than the DBACKS......And while neither team bats well against righties, DBACKS are worse than GIANTS....
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