Posted:
#226
Okay thanks
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General Sharps MLB Picks
Posted:
#233
mesleysnipes, you are confused because you need to understand the difference in betting. As I said, I bet decimal format. There is also American format and Fraction.
American format you risk -110, -150, etc... to win $100 profit.
Decimal format gives you a payout by multiplying the amount you bet by the number given. Ex. 1.79 odds x $100 = $179.
Decimal format is good for flat betting. I do this simply to help control the variance. I risk the same amount each play. I bet a lot of favorites in MLB (only +EV ones) and when I do have a bad day, the most I will lose is the 1 unit per loss. If you bet American, and risk -200 to win $100, you lose a lot more. So basically you could make more money on a hot streak betting the American method, but if you have a bad losing streak, your bankroll will take big hits, especially in high priced favorites.
I don't just bet favorites. It's only usually with MLB. I don't bet run lines because I pick teams that are motivated to win. Not motivated to win by x amount of runs or points. I keep it simple.
NHL I bet a lot more dogs. So usually you will see me bet 2.05, 2.20, etc... and flat betting $100 will yield $205, and $220.
Google these formats for a more detailed explanation. They will also show you how to convert from American to Decimal.
The bottom line is I find flat betting is best because it helps protect your bankroll from taking big hits. It keeps your mindset in check and helps prevent tilting/chasing. I am human too and I formulate my strategy around keeping calm and slowly grinding it out.
Good luck
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Posted:
#234
I have never understood the attraction of 'to risk to win' bets since the focus seems to be on what you might win rather than what you risk to lose. It's the mentality which can make people forget what it is they are risking to lose in the first place. Flat betting as you say helps you not take big hits by not putting the cart before the horse. This helps me at least stay focused and grinding it out rather than sweating any individual play.
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Posted:
#235
Thering, I really don't like giving out parlay picks simply cause I don't want to see you guys lose. I used to do it and, like last night, nothing worse than going 3/4 on a parlay.
Now, if you really want some picks, and you are in Vegas, I will give you my best guess, just understand you will have a really hard time winning long term with them. The only way to win with parlays is finding 2-3 +EV picks a day, paying odds that exceed the true odds.
For example if you found 3 under rated teams, that have a +EV of 50.1%+ and they pay +100 each, that's a +700 payout, thus that is ~+100 +EV.
Tonight (if you must) I would go with:
BAL
WAS
STL
PIT
Payout is +793
Goodluck
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Posted:
#241
Not a great night, going 5-5. Some close games with PIT, CLE, and NYY. Back to the grind tomorrow.
PIT 1.75 - LOSE $100
WAS 1.68 - WIN $168
STL 1.76 - LOSE $100
MIL 1.68 - LOSE $100
SF 1.61 - WIN $161
DET 1.57 - WIN $157
CLE 1.60 - LOSE $100
NYY 1.79 - LOSE $100
BAL 1.81 - WIN $181
LAA 1.71 - WIN $171
Overall cost of bets: $1000
Overall winnings: $838
Overall profit: -$162, 1.62 Units
Record to Date: 124W - 79L, +13.87U, 61.1% Overall Winning Percentage
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,387, +$1387
Total Profit to Date (after 27 days of betting): +$1387, +13.87 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.51 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.1%
Going to bed. Will update database and post picks tomorrow. Goodnight everybody.
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Posted:
#243
Hey Gen Sharps, been following you the last few on baseball here. Thanks for the daily picks. Just a quick question, to bet as closely to your system as possible, should I be wagering the to win amount or the risk amount? So should I risk say 16 to win 10 on a -160 game or bet 10 to win 6 ???
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Posted:
#247
Thanks guys. Baseball is funny, that's why I flat bet. Just look at WAS. Superior pitcher, much better hitting team at home vs. ATL on the road, and a better pen yet they get clobbered.
Looking forward to NHL season. That is where I make most of my profits.
Hope everyone has a great night.
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Posted:
#248
Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp:
Thanks guys. Baseball is funny, that's why I flat bet. Just look at WAS. Superior pitcher, much better hitting team at home vs. ATL on the road, and a better pen yet they get clobbered.
Thanks guys. Baseball is funny, that's why I flat bet. Just look at WAS. Superior pitcher, much better hitting team at home vs. ATL on the road, and a better pen yet they get clobbered.
Looking forward to NHL season. That is where I make most of my profits.
Hope everyone has a great night.
As a Penguins fan who has watched every single game for years. I think its worse for hockey than baseball. A lot of teams play up to their competition, but blow it to the team who has nothing to lose.
Thanks for the plays as well as I've followed them quite a few times.
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Posted:
#250
Thanks guys.
Another not so great night going 2-2.
WAS 1.52 - LOSE $100
COL 2.08 - LOSE $100
LAD 1.65 - WIN $165
LAA 1.56 - WIN $156
Overall cost of bets: $400
Overall winnings: $321
Overall profit: -$79
Record to Date: 126W - 81L, +13.08U, 60.9% Overall Winning Percentage
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,308, +$1308
Total Profit to Date (after 28 days of betting): +$1308, +13.08 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.48 Units profit per day. Current win % is 60.9%
4 Week Summary: So after 207 bets, over 4 weeks (28 betting days) we have a profit of 13.08 Units.
In this thread we were flat betting each pick $100. This yielded us a profit of $1308 over 4 weeks betting MLB.
Now $1308 over 4 weeks is not enough to live on (for most) by betting $100 per game, however if you had a decent sized bankroll, and were betting lets say $300 per game,
you would of course than profit $3924. Now, you can definetely live off of $3924 per month (well you should be able to!).
As you can see, you don't need to chase. You don't need to make big plays on
"5 star" or "lock" plays. You don't need the stress over massive bankroll swings. 13 Units profit per month is not a hard goal to obtain. Personaly I flat bet a lot more than $100 per game and
I average 15-20 units per month profit over MLB, NHL, and NBA. I do bet NFL, but only for fun and it's much smaller amounts. I have being doing this for over 20 years and I have always made money.
The bottom line here is you can win at sports. You just have to treat it as a job. You have to keep accurate records. Be honest with your handicapping. Understand why you won
and lost games. Track everything and focus your bets on sports you are profitable at. I love watching NFL, but I am just terrible at betting it, thus I avoid putting my money on games.
Have faith. Work hard. Don't be discouraged. Just follow strict bankroll management and stay disciplined.
I will still post plays but I may miss a few days here and there until NHL starts. Goodluck everybody.
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