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General Sharps MLB Picks

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Posted: #276
So what you're saying is it would be wise to take RL based on the win percentages for the plays in this thread?
 
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Posted: #277
sports_Network, i really appreciate the hard work you did. Thank you. In my 20 years of betting, I originally use to bet run lines. I had a few years where they costed me a lot of money. I decided that even though there certainly is value in finding good run lines, I just preferred to have a more stable bankroll. 

What I did not do is track run lines as I updated and refined my betting formula over the years. It seems to be a lot more efficient.

I will definitely begin back testing over the last 3 years and see if this is not just a random anomaly. It certainly does not look like it as I back tested the entire year with my records and it blew my mind. Pretty much the same win %. 

Thanks again for your hard work and helping us work together to find the best possible +EV.

I will post plays in about 1 hour, just been really busy with family stuff.  
 
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Posted: #278
Yes RedSox. You can bet 1 Unit on the run line and 1 Unit on the money line. In the 31 days of betting, I have never lost more than 2 days in a row. Your bankroll will still be ok with this consistent win percentage. 
 
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Posted: #279
Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp:

Yes RedSox. You can bet 1
Unit on the run line and 1 Unit on the money line. In the 31 days of betting, I have never lost more than 2 days in a row. Your bankroll will still be ok with this consistent win percentage.


Thanks so much Sharp for everything you're doing and all the hard work you're putting into beating the books
 
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Posted: #280
No problem RedSox! Let's get some money!

Tonight's Plays: Monday September 15th, 2014: All lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post. 

Today we add run lines. Flat bet 1 Unit each for ml plays and run line plays. Despite the fact we are essentially betting 2 units per team, with the high win percentage sustained over 200+ plays, it will not adversely affect our bankroll. 

We will continue this method until the end of the season and re-evaluate the results for next season and choose the optimal betting method.

MIA ML 2.44 (+144)
MIA RL 3.13 (+213)
DET ML 1.54 (-185)
DET RL 1.89 (-112)

4 plays total, flat bet 1 Unit each ($100).

Good luck everyone!
 
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Posted: #281
Interesting approach. Curious to see the outcome. Perhaps a combination of the two approaches could bring the best results. Keep up the good work.
 
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Posted: #282
Thanks wiredtrance, will do. Best of luck tonight.
 
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Posted: #283
Are you going to post till the end of the regular season general?It may be interesting to follow and learn from you in the long run,i never managed to keep up with mlb.To many stats and numbers to follow everyday
 
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Posted: #284
I will be able to post about 90% of the remaining season each day. My kid just entered university, so I have been busy helping out and paying for a whole bunch of over priced items. Just spend $2000 for 5 books. Crazy stuff. 
 
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Posted: #285
Thanks Sharps, gonna try your method with ml and rl.... what do you do about college football any plays??
 
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Posted: #286
Great capping!
 
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Posted: #287
Quote Originally Posted by Red_Soxxxxxxxx:



Thanks so much Sharp for everything you're doing and all the hard work you're putting into beating the books


i agree thanks for all the hard work and congrats to your kid for entering university.
 
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Posted: #288
Thanks guys.

Russ, my best sport is NHL followed by MLB. I also bet on NBA, but a lot less plays. I do not bet NFL or College Football.

I am Canadian so football I never grew up with really. Just hockey and baseball. I have tried to build NFL models but they have failed miserably. I just came up with a new NFL prototype system and so far this year I am 8-5. You can follow my NFL picks in my covers contest by clicking on the red RSI stars in my name. Tonight I have PHI +3, but these are just air plays. I am not betting any money on NFL (with the exception of a lotto parlay each week). If I have a winning record after week 4 I will start betting 1 Unit per NFL pick.

I will provide picks for NHL and NBA during the upcoming season of course. Best of luck.
 
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Posted: #289

Fellow Canadian here as well GS. Do you do quite well on the NHL and will you be posting your plays when the new regular season kicks into gear? 

 
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Posted: #290
Yes pinball, i will be posting NHL picks in the NHL forum section when the season starts.


 
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Posted: #291
General - keep up the good work!    
 
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Posted: #292
Great night, going 3/4. 

MIA ML 2.44 (+144) - WIN $244
MIA RL 3.13 (+213) - LOSE $100
DET ML 1.54 (-185) - WIN $154
DET RL 1.89 (-112) - WIN $189

Overall cost of bets: $400
Overall winnings: $587
Overall profit: +$187, 1.87 Units


Record to Date: 140W - 88L, +15.69U, 61.4% Overall Winning Percentage
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,569, +$1569


Total Profit to Date (after 32 days of betting): +$1569, +15.69 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.49 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.4%


My NFL thread is here too if you guys missed it: PHI +3 won, as well as the over

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101943819&page=1



Will post tomorrows plays in a few hours. Hope everybody had a great night!

 
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Posted: #293
Great pick on Miami. Great picks overall. You are a fantastic handicapper. Thank you
 
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Posted: #294
No problem RS! Just glad we can all win and share knowledge. I see a lot of players fight with each other. Makes no sense. We have a common enemy and should work together.
 
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Posted: #295
Quote Originally Posted by GeneralSharp:

No problem RS! Just glad we can all win and share knowledge. I see a lot of players fight with each other. Makes no sense. We have a common enemy and should work
together.


Agreed. I took a shot at the book today with the Angels. I believe that was the easiest game on the board in quite a while. Coming off a loss with a solid pitcher. Never see odds like today's. Keep up the great work. Good nighta
 
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Posted: #296

Just curious on your payout on the Detroit ml....flatbet 100 on a -185 is giving you a profit of 54?  not a hater and not familiar with the decimal format since my proline days decades ago

 
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Posted: #297
Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:

Just curious on your payout on the Detroit ml....flatbet 100 on a -185 is giving you a profit of 54?  not a hater and not familiar with the decimal format since my proline days decades ago

 

I think my math is off ......I was assuming it would of been a decimal  1.15

 

 
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Posted: #298
np train, there are many converters out there to convert American to decimal and vice versa.


 
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Posted: #299
Today's Plays: Tues Sept 16th, 2014: All lines are from Pinnacle sports at the time of post.

As always, flat bet 1 Unit each ($100). 8 plays total. Good luck everyone.

STL ML 1.66 (-151)
STL RL 2.51 (+151)
DET ML 1.70 (-142)
DET RL 2.08 (+108)
OAK ML 1.42 (-236)
OAK RL 1.95 (-105)
PIT ML 1.58 (-173)
PIT RL 2.34 (+134)
 
 
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