I would but I can't, sportbook links are non-transferable (and there's a very justifiable reason for this) sorry. I maintain you contact Sharp later, he'll be able to help you, as he uses Pinnacle, and I do not. take care, have a prosperous day
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I would but I can't, sportbook links are non-transferable (and there's a very justifiable reason for this) sorry. I maintain you contact Sharp later, he'll be able to help you, as he uses Pinnacle, and I do not. take care, have a prosperous day
Sometimes lines go on and offline with Pinnacle. Some nights they are up early, and other times late. They also may go off the board for longer periods pending news on certain players. Those were the lines offered to me when I logged in to bet.
My plays are 1% of my bankroll. If you have a high win percentage over a long period of time it is logical to increase your betting amount as long as you can sustain your winning percentage within reasonable parameters.
As in the case with our ML/RL bets, I am not adding more games to the card, I am merely extending the original bets to include the run line which has shown to provide massive +EV.
As calculated by SN and after i back tested the year, it has clearly shown to be very profitable. With 100 Units at are disposal, it only makes sense to increase are unit size per team selected to 2%, splitting 1% on the ML and 1% on the run line.
The risk of negative variance will increase, however with out winning percentage the only variance we should expect is a positive upswing.
Good luck everybody.
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Hey guys. Thanks again for helping out SN.
Sometimes lines go on and offline with Pinnacle. Some nights they are up early, and other times late. They also may go off the board for longer periods pending news on certain players. Those were the lines offered to me when I logged in to bet.
My plays are 1% of my bankroll. If you have a high win percentage over a long period of time it is logical to increase your betting amount as long as you can sustain your winning percentage within reasonable parameters.
As in the case with our ML/RL bets, I am not adding more games to the card, I am merely extending the original bets to include the run line which has shown to provide massive +EV.
As calculated by SN and after i back tested the year, it has clearly shown to be very profitable. With 100 Units at are disposal, it only makes sense to increase are unit size per team selected to 2%, splitting 1% on the ML and 1% on the run line.
The risk of negative variance will increase, however with out winning percentage the only variance we should expect is a positive upswing.
Hey Josh, Tor and Atl don't fit my criteria for my model. I am not saying they won't win, but if my system says no, then I pass. If the system says yes, but there is no value, I pass.
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Hey Josh, Tor and Atl don't fit my criteria for my model. I am not saying they won't win, but if my system says no, then I pass. If the system says yes, but there is no value, I pass.
I'm still not getting how you come to your picks, how does your system work, I read the post with regards to your system but it doesn't really say much except for pitching, surely you're not capping just by who's pitching, or are you?
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I'm still not getting how you come to your picks, how does your system work, I read the post with regards to your system but it doesn't really say much except for pitching, surely you're not capping just by who's pitching, or are you?
Thanks for all the info Sharp. I read someone elses post about the reverse run lines and I found two that I took MIL - 1.5 at +220 and CWS - 1.5 at +150 plus all the ones you listed will see how that pans out
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Thanks for all the info Sharp. I read someone elses post about the reverse run lines and I found two that I took MIL - 1.5 at +220 and CWS - 1.5 at +150 plus all the ones you listed will see how that pans out
Sharp, thanks for all your hard work in here and help us out, look forward to see your daily picks, as you mentioned hockey is your favorite sport to bet and make most money, just curious question if you still have your past track hockey record
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Sharp, thanks for all your hard work in here and help us out, look forward to see your daily picks, as you mentioned hockey is your favorite sport to bet and make most money, just curious question if you still have your past track hockey record
General - I am a big fan of your system. I think this RL addition is really screwing up a good thing. Much larger swings which goes against your initial plan. In my opinion you had it right before sticking with ML. I don't believe RL is going to do anything but drain the bank. Maybe it is just me but I am going back to ML approach. Good luck!
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General - I am a big fan of your system. I think this RL addition is really screwing up a good thing. Much larger swings which goes against your initial plan. In my opinion you had it right before sticking with ML. I don't believe RL is going to do anything but drain the bank. Maybe it is just me but I am going back to ML approach. Good luck!
Not a good night. Didn't lose much, 0.19 units, but dissapointed with no profit. Will continue to grind. Different dynamic in the last month as most teams are finished.
Nonetheless we will hopefully finish strong. Looking forward to the upcoming NHL season.
MIL ML 2.40 - LOSE $100
MIL RL 3.26 - LOSE $100
PHI ML 1.74 - WIN $174
PHI RL 2.26 - WIN $226
DET ML 1.57 - LOSE $100
DET RL 1.94 - LOSE $100
CLE ML 1.74 - WIN $174
CLE RL 2.19 - WIN $219
CWS ML 1.99 - LOSE $100
CWS RL 2.78 - LOSE $100
PIT ML 1.59 - WIN $159
PIT RL 2.29 - WIN $229
Overall cost of bets: $1200
Overall winnings: $1181
Overall profit: -$19, -0.19 Units
Record to Date: 145W - 97L, +11.44U, 59.9% Overall Winning Percentage
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,144, +$1144
Total Profit to Date (after 34 days of betting): +$1144, +11.44 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.35 Units profit per day.
Current win percentage is 59.9%
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Not a good night. Didn't lose much, 0.19 units, but dissapointed with no profit. Will continue to grind. Different dynamic in the last month as most teams are finished.
Nonetheless we will hopefully finish strong. Looking forward to the upcoming NHL season.
MIL ML 2.40 - LOSE $100
MIL RL 3.26 - LOSE $100
PHI ML 1.74 - WIN $174
PHI RL 2.26 - WIN $226
DET ML 1.57 - LOSE $100
DET RL 1.94 - LOSE $100
CLE ML 1.74 - WIN $174
CLE RL 2.19 - WIN $219
CWS ML 1.99 - LOSE $100
CWS RL 2.78 - LOSE $100
PIT ML 1.59 - WIN $159
PIT RL 2.29 - WIN $229
Overall cost of bets: $1200
Overall winnings: $1181
Overall profit: -$19, -0.19 Units
Record to Date: 145W - 97L, +11.44U, 59.9% Overall Winning Percentage
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,144, +$1144
Total Profit to Date (after 34 days of betting): +$1144, +11.44 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.35 Units profit per day.
Bizarro, trust me, I get what you are saying, and normally I would pass on the run lines, but this season has shown a tremendous edge, and it is unfortunate those plays were not in the first 31 days of betting. If they don't prove profitable the rest of the month I will revert back to ML only.
Allinriver, I have a higher winnings percentage in NHL as well bet more dogs, so it is profitable don't worry. I just don't want to shoot out numbers. Would rather you just review my work once NHL season starts and let my results speak for themself so there is no doubt.
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Bizarro, trust me, I get what you are saying, and normally I would pass on the run lines, but this season has shown a tremendous edge, and it is unfortunate those plays were not in the first 31 days of betting. If they don't prove profitable the rest of the month I will revert back to ML only.
Allinriver, I have a higher winnings percentage in NHL as well bet more dogs, so it is profitable don't worry. I just don't want to shoot out numbers. Would rather you just review my work once NHL season starts and let my results speak for themself so there is no doubt.
Sorry for your evening. I found your thread yesterday and spent the day reading through it. Love the system! Wish I knew enough about data mining/algorithms to create something myself :(.
Piggybacked your picks last night, with minor changes, and went 8-2.
Took the ML for $2...then risked the expected winnings on the RL. Could only take the favorites as my book does not do Alternate Run Lines.
Total of both bets shown below....and yes, that is real dollar figures, I'm small time as I learn...
PIT risk $3.14 to win $2.57 Win Win
ATL risk $3.25 to win $3.00 Win Win
CLE risk $3.54 to win $3.39 Win Win
PHI risk $3.39 to win $3.06 Win Win
DET risk $3.12 - Loss Loss
Risked: -$16.44
Results: +$25.34
Profit/Loss: +$8.90
Didn't mean to bogart your thread, just wanted to say, 'thanks!'
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General,
Sorry for your evening. I found your thread yesterday and spent the day reading through it. Love the system! Wish I knew enough about data mining/algorithms to create something myself :(.
Piggybacked your picks last night, with minor changes, and went 8-2.
Took the ML for $2...then risked the expected winnings on the RL. Could only take the favorites as my book does not do Alternate Run Lines.
Total of both bets shown below....and yes, that is real dollar figures, I'm small time as I learn...
PIT risk $3.14 to win $2.57 Win Win
ATL risk $3.25 to win $3.00 Win Win
CLE risk $3.54 to win $3.39 Win Win
PHI risk $3.39 to win $3.06 Win Win
DET risk $3.12 - Loss Loss
Risked: -$16.44
Results: +$25.34
Profit/Loss: +$8.90
Didn't mean to bogart your thread, just wanted to say, 'thanks!'
good day on the RL, cappers who MM their system woke up today with a smile on their face, solid capp on all three, understanding, this is a 1u flat bet thread, Sharp has left the MM to the capper's final decision, also understanding for the simplicity of the thread Sharp has taken no responsibility to activate MM strategy, and attach it to the RL plays. Do your math, check last nights payouts on the RL alone (3-3) it's rare, and seldom seen that anyone playing the RL exclusively makes a 1u flat bet wager in its behalf. if your trailing the plays in this thread, (61.2%) and have recently converted to also include the RL, you don't bet 1u flat, your wager should equate to a min of 2u per RL WIN remember; Sharp is using the 1u flat bet per play to justify judgement to a winning % he does not go into the complexity of attaching units (MM) to each individual game, thus, 3 RL hits in one evening should be considered beneficial to any experienced MLB capper who initiates equative MM technique, where as 3-3 on the RL makes money, do your math......
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CLE [-1.5] RL WIN 2,19
PHI [-1.5] RL WIN 2,26
PIT [-1.5] RL WIN 2,29
good day on the RL, cappers who MM their system woke up today with a smile on their face, solid capp on all three, understanding, this is a 1u flat bet thread, Sharp has left the MM to the capper's final decision, also understanding for the simplicity of the thread Sharp has taken no responsibility to activate MM strategy, and attach it to the RL plays. Do your math, check last nights payouts on the RL alone (3-3) it's rare, and seldom seen that anyone playing the RL exclusively makes a 1u flat bet wager in its behalf. if your trailing the plays in this thread, (61.2%) and have recently converted to also include the RL, you don't bet 1u flat, your wager should equate to a min of 2u per RL WIN remember; Sharp is using the 1u flat bet per play to justify judgement to a winning % he does not go into the complexity of attaching units (MM) to each individual game, thus, 3 RL hits in one evening should be considered beneficial to any experienced MLB capper who initiates equative MM technique, where as 3-3 on the RL makes money, do your math......
Sorry General didn't really mean to sound like I wanted to copy your system, just wanted to know your basic principles of your system, which you did answer, thank you
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Sorry General didn't really mean to sound like I wanted to copy your system, just wanted to know your basic principles of your system, which you did answer, thank you
Deeker, no need to apoligize. I didn't take any offense to it. The problem with the internet is the lack of non verbal communication as well as vocalics. So it's fairly common we all get the wrong idea about how a person really feels.
Some more tips:
-Focus on starting pitchers WHIP, and their WHIP on the road, at home, and during day/night. I ignore ERA
-Don't use just bullpen stats, project what bullpen members will come in and use their stats. Eliminate guys that pitched the last few games because they will not pitch and their stats are diluting the true estimation
-Follow a teams defense. The Orioles don't have the greatest rotation, or bullpen, but they play excellent defense and win close ball games.
-Runs per game are important over the last 3 and 10 games as it accounts for injuries, trades, etc... don't just use the season average stats
-Follow the teams travel schedule. Their energy level, their motivation.
Good luck to you, feel free to ask any questions
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Deeker, no need to apoligize. I didn't take any offense to it. The problem with the internet is the lack of non verbal communication as well as vocalics. So it's fairly common we all get the wrong idea about how a person really feels.
Some more tips:
-Focus on starting pitchers WHIP, and their WHIP on the road, at home, and during day/night. I ignore ERA
-Don't use just bullpen stats, project what bullpen members will come in and use their stats. Eliminate guys that pitched the last few games because they will not pitch and their stats are diluting the true estimation
-Follow a teams defense. The Orioles don't have the greatest rotation, or bullpen, but they play excellent defense and win close ball games.
-Runs per game are important over the last 3 and 10 games as it accounts for injuries, trades, etc... don't just use the season average stats
-Follow the teams travel schedule. Their energy level, their motivation.
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