Absolute disaster last night going 2-7. The only encouragement is some picks were close, but still just a disaster. Last night was a perfect example why bankroll management is so important. Prior to last night, things were looking good with a 65.2% winning percentage, then BAM. A big nasty patch of variance. This is why when you are hot, you don't bet more than your unit size. Even though the night was terrible, after 12 days we are still up 6.69 Units. There will come days, like last week, when I/you will go 7-0 and in the end, it all balances out in this marathon.
Record to Date: 62W - 39L, +6.69U
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $10,629, +$629
Total Profit to Date (after 12 days of betting): +$629, +6.29 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.52 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.4%
Will be back with picks in a few hours.
0
PIT 1.76 - LOSE $100
MIL 1.77 - WIN $177
SF 1.58 - LOSE $100
TOR 1.88 - LOSE $100
OAK 1.61 - WIN $161
WAS 1.71 - LOSE $100
STL@PIT OVER 7 2.11 - LOSE $100
TB@BAL UNDER 8 1.83 - LOSE $100
NYY@KC UNDER 7.5 1.90 - LOSE $100
Overall cost of bets: $900
Overall winnings: $338
Overall profit: -$562
Absolute disaster last night going 2-7. The only encouragement is some picks were close, but still just a disaster. Last night was a perfect example why bankroll management is so important. Prior to last night, things were looking good with a 65.2% winning percentage, then BAM. A big nasty patch of variance. This is why when you are hot, you don't bet more than your unit size. Even though the night was terrible, after 12 days we are still up 6.69 Units. There will come days, like last week, when I/you will go 7-0 and in the end, it all balances out in this marathon.
Record to Date: 62W - 39L, +6.69U
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $10,629, +$629
Total Profit to Date (after 12 days of betting): +$629, +6.29 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.52 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.4%
shug you misunderstood me. I never said I only bet favorites. I said I bet favorites a lot, simply because I find the best win% / value in the pick.
Sure, some ml favorites are overpriced and offer terrible value. I pass on those even though I believe they will win. I will not bet a dog because it offers just value. I will bet a dog when I believe they will win the game. I have bet a few dogs on ml in my thread, not many, but they are there. I also bet half my picks on totals at -105 to -110 and you are ignoring those picks where I am getting paid almost even money. As I said before I bet on any +EV pick. I do not care if its a dog or a favorite, or a total.
We all have our own models and betting methods. We all use different bankroll management. I am just telling you what works for me.
0
shug you misunderstood me. I never said I only bet favorites. I said I bet favorites a lot, simply because I find the best win% / value in the pick.
Sure, some ml favorites are overpriced and offer terrible value. I pass on those even though I believe they will win. I will not bet a dog because it offers just value. I will bet a dog when I believe they will win the game. I have bet a few dogs on ml in my thread, not many, but they are there. I also bet half my picks on totals at -105 to -110 and you are ignoring those picks where I am getting paid almost even money. As I said before I bet on any +EV pick. I do not care if its a dog or a favorite, or a total.
We all have our own models and betting methods. We all use different bankroll management. I am just telling you what works for me.
Thanks sotto. Yes, I definitely need a higher win percentage when I bet favorites. As I mentioned to shug, they only make up 40% of my overall bets. The other 50% is totals, and the other 10% is dogs. In the end sniffing out +EV and passing on -EV plays is all that matters to bring in profit.
Good luck to you tonight.
0
Thanks sotto. Yes, I definitely need a higher win percentage when I bet favorites. As I mentioned to shug, they only make up 40% of my overall bets. The other 50% is totals, and the other 10% is dogs. In the end sniffing out +EV and passing on -EV plays is all that matters to bring in profit.
2-7 on Monday, this happens, and I mean this happens to everyone who has ever placed a wager on a MLB game. the key element is the "next day recovery methodology" -5.62u ($562) those that understand baseball, and know how it works, comprehend the 'value' that loss possesses, simply 'rebound' with strategic MM attached to the value of a recovering handicapping format the next day, or their after...the lean goes to GeneralSharp on Tuesdays action.....
0
2-7 on Monday, this happens, and I mean this happens to everyone who has ever placed a wager on a MLB game. the key element is the "next day recovery methodology" -5.62u ($562) those that understand baseball, and know how it works, comprehend the 'value' that loss possesses, simply 'rebound' with strategic MM attached to the value of a recovering handicapping format the next day, or their after...the lean goes to GeneralSharp on Tuesdays action.....
I have just discovered your thread and I wish I had earlier.
I have a tendency to play unders and I have have just been getting absolutely belted every time I play an under. Every single time.
It doesn't matter if I get a better total live in game, it still ends up going over that. I go away for a few days, unders start hitting again, I then come back, start playing unders and the losing begins again.
I don't know what you're doing right and what i'm doing wrong in this sport. I'm at a loss. I haven't had a win for weeks.
You may want to take a close look at this link, it explains one of many formulas connected to TOTAL play> www;tangotiger.net/markov.html
0
Quote Originally Posted by Manila_Playa87:
I have just discovered your thread and I wish I had earlier.
I have a tendency to play unders and I have have just been getting absolutely belted every time I play an under. Every single time.
It doesn't matter if I get a better total live in game, it still ends up going over that. I go away for a few days, unders start hitting again, I then come back, start playing unders and the losing begins again.
I don't know what you're doing right and what i'm doing wrong in this sport. I'm at a loss. I haven't had a win for weeks.
You may want to take a close look at this link, it explains one of many formulas connected to TOTAL play> www;tangotiger.net/markov.html
I was on the Yanks/Tigers under as well as the Rays/Os under yesterday. Pretty sickening to see the Tigers bull pen blow up and allow two runs in the top of the 9th to hit the over.. And Odorozzi to give up homer after homer after homer in the 5th inning, and then for there to be no more runs throughout the rest of the game..
Liking Yanks/Tigers and Rays/Os under again today as well. Hopefully we won't get burned two days in a row..
0
Good luck today, GS.
I was on the Yanks/Tigers under as well as the Rays/Os under yesterday. Pretty sickening to see the Tigers bull pen blow up and allow two runs in the top of the 9th to hit the over.. And Odorozzi to give up homer after homer after homer in the 5th inning, and then for there to be no more runs throughout the rest of the game..
Liking Yanks/Tigers and Rays/Os under again today as well. Hopefully we won't get burned two days in a row..
Thanks Jkat. Yeah it is tough to lose close ones, but I try to look at the positive. At least we were not way off, and that our model is on the right track. Best of luck today.
0
Thanks Jkat. Yeah it is tough to lose close ones, but I try to look at the positive. At least we were not way off, and that our model is on the right track. Best of luck today.
Amazing what 2-7 brings to the table the next day..outstanding results yesterday (8-3) including 3-1 on your UNDERS; a full unit recovery, congratulations on a job well done
0
Amazing what 2-7 brings to the table the next day..outstanding results yesterday (8-3) including 3-1 on your UNDERS; a full unit recovery, congratulations on a job well done
Thank you Sports_Network. Nice to see a good rebound. The variance will always swing either way but as long as we protect our bankroll, we are good. Appreciate the kind words.
0
Thank you Sports_Network. Nice to see a good rebound. The variance will always swing either way but as long as we protect our bankroll, we are good. Appreciate the kind words.
Total Profit to Date (after 13 days of betting): +$1,007, +10.07 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.77 Units profit per day. Current win % is 62.5%
0
A great bounce back going 8-3.
STL@PIT UNDER 7.5 1.87 WIN $187
NYY@DET UNDER 8 2.00 - WIN $200
TB@BAL UNDER 7.5 1.83 - WIN $183
CLE@CWS UNDER 8 1.91 - LOSE $100
LAD ML 1.91 - WIN $191
SF ML 1.50 - WIN $150
TOR ML 1.76 - LOSE $100
KC ML 1.60 - WIN $160
HOU ML 2.09 - WIN $209
CWS ML 1.74 - LOSE $100
LAA ML 1.58 - WIN $158
Overall cost of bets: $1100
Overall winnings: $1438
Overall profit: $338
Record to Date: 70W - 42L, +10.07U
Starting Bankroll: $11,007
Current Bankroll: $11,007, +$1,007
Total Profit to Date (after 13 days of betting): +$1,007, +10.07 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.77 Units profit per day. Current win % is 62.5%
*Correction: Starting bankroll $10,000, not $11,007. Time for morning coffee.
Record to Date: 70W - 42L, +10.07U
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,007, +$1,007
Total Profit to Date (after 13 days of betting): +$1,007, +10.07 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.77 Units profit per day. Current win % is 62.5%
0
*Correction: Starting bankroll $10,000, not $11,007. Time for morning coffee.
Record to Date: 70W - 42L, +10.07U
Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,007, +$1,007
Total Profit to Date (after 13 days of betting): +$1,007, +10.07 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.77 Units profit per day. Current win % is 62.5%
I am getting even $ on the under 7.5 NYY/DET & even $ on ML NY Mets. Both of these are against what you are taking, but you bet any Even $ plays. Thoughts?
0
GS -
I am getting even $ on the under 7.5 NYY/DET & even $ on ML NY Mets. Both of these are against what you are taking, but you bet any Even $ plays. Thoughts?
CD i have under 7.5 in the DET game, read my picks again.
I don't take picks just cause they pay out more, i take picks i think will win that have value. I pass on picks I think will win that have negative value.
0
CD i have under 7.5 in the DET game, read my picks again.
I don't take picks just cause they pay out more, i take picks i think will win that have value. I pass on picks I think will win that have negative value.
Thanks smithyy, yeah it was not a profitable night, but definitely not destroyed. 6-5 overall. RedSox, I take it you didn't flat bet and went big on a few plays? It's a marathon. You can sprint at the beginning and expect to win.
I know its a broken record, and all we hear is bankroll management, bankroll management, bankroll management, well that is because that is 50% of winning. The other 50% is picking winners. You can just take a big shot at a few plays and hope you win big.
NYY@DET UNDER 7.5 1.94 - LOSE $100
BOS@TOR OVER 8.5 1.98 - LOSE $100
MIA@LAA UNDER 8 1.95 - WIN $195
ATL 1.78 - WIN $178
LAD 1.50 - WIN $150
SF 1.50 - WIN $150
DET 1.58 - LOSE $100
TOR 1.72 - WIN $172
OAK 1.63 - WIN 163
WAS 1.64 - LOSE $100
CLE 1.54 - LOSE $154
Overall cost of bets: $1100
Overall winnings: $1008
Overall profit: -$92
Back in an hour with plays, just updating my database.
I can't stress this enough. I am a grinder. I am a high volume player that flat bets. I don't do 5* plays or "locks" of the day, etc... I bet the same amount on each play that I believe has positive expected value. Please don't spot pick plays and get angry when they lose. Understand the betting method and strategy here and you will be a long term winner. There are no quick easy bucks.
Record to Date: 76W - 47L, +9.15U
Starting Bankroll: $10,915
Current Bankroll: $10,915, +$915
Total Profit to Date (after 14 days of betting): +$915, +9.15 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.65 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.2%
0
Thanks smithyy, yeah it was not a profitable night, but definitely not destroyed. 6-5 overall. RedSox, I take it you didn't flat bet and went big on a few plays? It's a marathon. You can sprint at the beginning and expect to win.
I know its a broken record, and all we hear is bankroll management, bankroll management, bankroll management, well that is because that is 50% of winning. The other 50% is picking winners. You can just take a big shot at a few plays and hope you win big.
NYY@DET UNDER 7.5 1.94 - LOSE $100
BOS@TOR OVER 8.5 1.98 - LOSE $100
MIA@LAA UNDER 8 1.95 - WIN $195
ATL 1.78 - WIN $178
LAD 1.50 - WIN $150
SF 1.50 - WIN $150
DET 1.58 - LOSE $100
TOR 1.72 - WIN $172
OAK 1.63 - WIN 163
WAS 1.64 - LOSE $100
CLE 1.54 - LOSE $154
Overall cost of bets: $1100
Overall winnings: $1008
Overall profit: -$92
Back in an hour with plays, just updating my database.
I can't stress this enough. I am a grinder. I am a high volume player that flat bets. I don't do 5* plays or "locks" of the day, etc... I bet the same amount on each play that I believe has positive expected value. Please don't spot pick plays and get angry when they lose. Understand the betting method and strategy here and you will be a long term winner. There are no quick easy bucks.
Record to Date: 76W - 47L, +9.15U
Starting Bankroll: $10,915
Current Bankroll: $10,915, +$915
Total Profit to Date (after 14 days of betting): +$915, +9.15 Units flat betting $100 per pick. This averages 0.65 Units profit per day. Current win % is 61.2%
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.